The Cup Final is here! Two teams, both alike in dignity, meet in Vegas where we lay our scene. With the Milwaukee Bucks and Oklahoma City Thunder set to face off with $500,000 per player on the line, the stakes could not be higher! (OK, they could be higher, but still!)
Continue below for my NBA Cup Final predictions and my NBA picks for Tuesday, December 17.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Odds, Projections
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -108 | 215.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -112 | 215.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
- Line: Thunder (-5)
- Moore's Power Rating Projection: Thunder (-5.7)
- Total: 214.5
- Moore's Projection: 214
NBA Cup Final Picks, Prediction, Preview
Love this matchup. Love it. You have a lot of firepower with some strengths and weaknesses. The Bucks are bigger, the Thunder are faster, more agile, and better defenders.
Numbers in favor of OKC:
- The Thunder allow the 5th-fewest 3-pointers made per game which allows them to hang with worse shooting.
- OKC, somehow without a real big man, is 1st in points in the paint allowed per 100 possessions. Milwaukee, despite Giannis and more size, are 26th in points in the paint created. It's baffling, but true that the Thunder have a big edge at the rim.
- The Bucks are the second-worst team defending the pick and roll ball-handler as a scorer. Shai is the 9th-best scorer per possession in pick-and-roll. He should have a huge game.
Numbers in favor of Milwaukee:
- The Thunder are 30th in transition foul rate defensively, Milwaukee is 2nd. Giannis should be able to get to the line routinely and put some pressure on OKC's considerable depth.
- The Bucks are a much better shooting team in pretty much all situations. Milwaukee is 6th-best in halfcourt eFG%, 1st in transition. The Thunder are 14th in halfcourt, 23rd in transition. The Bucks have a built-in advantage in putting the ball in the bucket that's balanced by OKC's defensive advantage.
- It's tight, but Milwaukee averages 0.4 more made 3's per game. That's a slight math edge for Milwaukee.
A huge question is whether both teams will approach this like a normal game in the course of 82 as their seasons resume Thursday, or if they will treat this as a one-game playoff and gameplan to win this game more than the normal game.
Brook Lopez has taken seventeen shots in the post this season, that's it. He's made eight of them. Is that a matchup the Bucks can win? If they attack Isaiah Hartenstein in the post, can they be efficient enough to take advantage or draw fouls? What about the minutes without Hartenstein when Kenrich Williams sometimes plays smallball center (effectively!)?
Dame and Giannis are both elite in pick and roll, but the Thunder give nightmares in defending it by either switching, blitzing, or containing it while not giving up threes. They give up the fewest 3-point attempts on pick and roll kickouts in the league. The most core structure of the Bucks offense is where OKC is strongest.
Have I mentioned Giannis is going to need a monster game here?
OKC is a monster at creating steals. They have the highest opponent turnover rate since 1998. They have an uncanny ability to swarm drives without fouling and create transition points. They lead the league in points off turnovers per 100 possessions.
Hartenstein's offensive value is a little less in this game. The Bucks won't put two on ball to try to get the ball out of Shai's hands, they'll drop and try to trail to contain his scoring while staying home on shooters. There will be some lob opportunities but Hartenstein won't have as many pass chances. (I'll be betting under 3.5 iHart assists.)
Some trends for you:
- Teams who average more than the league average per game in three-point attempts are 5-19 SU, 9-15 ATS against OKC and the under is 13-11 this season in those games (via KillerSports).
- While the Thunder foul more often than most teams, the Bucks do not generate more free throws than league average. Below-average free throw teams against OKC are 3-14 SU, 6-11 ATS and the under is 10-7.
- Every game in Vegas through the first five games of the Cup semifinals and finals in its existence has gone under.
The whole game look suggests that Damian Lillard will struggle, Giannis Antetokounmpo will dominate, Shai will get his, and the Thunder will win this with defense.
Bucks vs. Thunder Best Bets
- Thunder (-5)
- Under 216.5
- Isaiah Hartenstein under 3.5 assists (-115)
NBA Cup Final Same Game Parlay (0.1 units)
- Under 216.5
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points
- Giannis Antetokounmpo 30+ points
- Damian Lillard under 23.5 points
- Thunder Moneyline
Parlay: +900 at DraftKings
