The NBA playoffs resume with a trio of critical Game 6s today—Friday, May 1. Our staff of betting experts dug into the latest NBA odds and identified best bets for all three of tonight's matchups—including picks for Pistons vs. Magic, Cavaliers vs. Raptors, and Lakers vs. Rockets.
Continue below for our NBA picks, predictions, and best bets for Friday's playoff games.
NBA Picks, Predictions: Friday, May 1
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pistons vs. Magic Over/Under Pick
I don’t usually live in the totals market, but the volume of trends here is too loud to ignore.
The scoring average so far in this series is sitting just under 204, and while we’ve actually gone over this number in three of the five games, I’m calling that a fluke of outlier shot-making.
Are we really expecting Desmond Bane to keep hitting at this clip? Cade Cunningham and Paolo Banchero are not going to combine for 45 again. I don't buy that it's sustainable.
Plus, you have to look at the coaching. J.B. Bickerstaff is historically a playoff "under" coach; combined, these staffs hit the under at a 64% clip in the postseason.
Then, there are the Game 6 situational trends. When the home team isn’t favored by 3 or more—which nearly applies to every game tonight (exception: Rockets-3.5)—the under is 57-32 (66%). When it’s a lopsided seed matchup that isn’t exactly a "clash of the titans," the under is 27-13 (68%).
We’ve already seen how ugly this series can get with totals of 181 and 182. Everyone knows about the Game 7 under, but Game 6 is the new Game 7 under; that edge hasn't been priced into the market yet.
I’m also playing the mineshaft: Under 200 (+255) and a nibble on Under 185 (+1100). It’s already hit twice this series, and in a high-pressure closeout environment, the rim is going to look like a thimble.
Pick: Under 210.5 (-115)
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Cavaliers vs. Raptors Spread Prediction
Frankly, I love the market positioning on this. We’re seeing some asymmetry in the spread market due to Brandon Ingram’s status.
Ingram is dealing with heel inflammation—he didn’t return to Game 5 even when it was close—and I’d put him in that "doubtful" bucket.
Ingram is worth at least two or three points to this line. If he’s out, the Cavs' defensive life becomes so much easier.
Specifically, it allows Kenny Atkinson to hide Sam Merrill on a guy like Ja'Kobe Walter instead of having to aggressively match him up against a primary creator like Ingram.
One less matchup problem on the floor simplifies everything for a Cleveland coaching staff that, honestly, has been a bit outcoached this series.
Look at the numbers: Game 4 closed at Cavaliers -4.5. If Ingram is officially ruled out, I see this closing at -5.5 or even -6.
By grabbing -3.5 now, you are potentially gaining excellent closing line value. If he somehow plays, you’re likely just flat at the current number anyway.
I’m also not worried about a back-door cover in a closeout spot. Darko Rajaković is going to take this all the way to the whistle—we saw him call a timeout down five with 1.7 seconds left in Game 5. Toronto will foul until the very end, which actually helps us cover a short number like -3.5.
This is going to turn into a shooting contest, and I just don’t think the Raptors have the firepower to keep up if Cleveland starts hitting.
Pick: Cavaliers -3.5 (-115)
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Lakers vs. Rockets Moneyline Bet
I’m taking the Rockets Moneyline (-165). That price is starting to fly away from us, so jump on it now.
I’ve been building this position for a while—I bet them to win the series at the jump, I bet them at 6:1 when they were down 3-1, and I took the moneyline in Game 5. I’m just going to keep adding to it because I truly believe the Lakers have the worst starting lineup remaining in the field.
It’s somewhat under-appreciated, but stylistically, this Rockets team actually looks better without Kevin Durant.
Durant made their preferred defensive style difficult, and they look far more comfortable without him. Even with a guy like Reed Sheppard, his willingness to move with the ball handler and fight through screens is something you just don't see from an older Durant.
The Rockets win with their defense, and they’ve proven it by holding the Lakers to under 100 points in back-to-back games.
Ime Udoka has basically said "screw the bench" and is leaning on his starters for massive workloads. Amen Thompson played 46 minutes last game, while Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun both logged 42.
While Houston doesn’t suddenly have an elite offense, they are far more balanced now — and the Lakers seem to be finding it very hard to guard some of these guys one-on-one. I think the Rockets win Game 6 tonight.
Pick: Rockets Moneyline (-165)
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