We have a total of three NBA player props for this Monday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances to start the week.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Monday, January 6.
NBA Player Props for Monday, January 6
- James Harden
- Jaren Jackson
- PJ Washington
James Harden Under 20.5 Points (-120)
Clippers vs. Timberwolves, 8:00 p.m. ET
When James Harden joined the Clippers last season, he slid into a role that best fit his skillset at this stage of his career. He became the maestro of the offense, focusing more on distributing and less on getting his own shot. His usage rate plummeted to 20.2% and he took 11.4 shots per game, his fewest since the OKC days.
Harden took a career-high 59.4% of his shots from 3-point range last season, and he posted a 31.8% assisted field goal rate, his highest since 2013-14. The increased emphasis on 3-point shooting and assisted field goals further illustrates his role. He was a cog in the offense, not a ball-dominant scorer.
This season, Harden has returned to more of the heliocentric approach, which makes sense. Paul George is gone, and Kawhi Leonard has missed most of the season. Harden's shot attempts jumped back up to 15.7 per game, the most since his Brooklyn stint. His assisted field goal rate slipped back to 26.6%. He's still taken 51.5% of his shots from beyond the arc, which is significant.
Before joining the Clippers, he hadn't been above 50% since the Houston days.
Kawhi Leonard returned on Saturday, and we got a glimpse of the old (new?) Harden from 2023-24. He dropped 15 dimes against Atlanta in just 29 minutes. He took only nine shots, five of which were 3-pointers.
Leonard didn't crack 20 minutes, but he paced the team in usage (27.5%). Harden was 8th at 18.8%. It's only been a game, but as Leonard gets up to speed, I'm expecting Harden to trend toward his 2023-24 self.
The Timberwolves are a brutal matchup for 3-point shooters. They rank 6th or better in opponent 3-point makes, attempts, and percentage. Minnesota has also limited opponents to the 5th-fewest free throw attempts per game. Harden still relies on getting to the charity stripe, scoring 30% of his points via free throws this season.
Pick: James Harden Under 20.5 Points (-120)
