The Denver Nuggets (1-0) and Oklahoma City Thunder (0-1) will face off in Game 2 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Thunder are 10-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread (Thunder -10), with the over/under set at 230 total points. Oklahoma City is a -475 favorite to win outright, while Denver is +360 to pull off the upset.
I’ll be honest with you, I’m still not sure how the Nuggets stole the first matchup of this series from Oklahoma City. So, what happens tonight in Game 2?
Let's get into my Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks on Wednesday, May 7.
Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction, Picks for NBA Playoffs Game 2
My Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 2 best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Thunder -10 (-110)
Nuggets vs Thunder Odds for Wednesday, May 7
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 230 -110 / -110 | +360 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 230 -110 / -110 | -475 |
- Nuggets vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -10
- Nuggets vs. Thunder over/under: 230 total points
- Nuggets vs. Thunder moneyline: Nuggets +360, Thunder -475
- Nuggets vs. Thunder best bet:Thunder -10 (-110)
Nuggets vs Thunder NBA Playoffs Game 2 Preview
The Nuggets were in the worst spot heading into the first matchup of this series, playing on short rest after a Game 7 on the road, going up against a team with the best point differential in NBA history, and they were trailing by double digits in the fourth quarter.
The Nuggets were outscored in points off turnovers 23-5. They gave up five more made three-pointers than Oklahoma City. They lost the bench battle. They should have lost the game.
And then, Chet Holmgren missed two free throws after the Thunder fouled up three following 10 full seconds of play, Aaron Gordon hit a three, and now here we are. Nuggets lead 1-0 entering Game 2.
In the conference playoffs, top-2 seeds down 1-0 at home are 23-8 SU and 21-10 ATS (68%) in Game 2. Their average margin of victory in those games is 8.5 points, clearing the average line by 2.9 points. If they are favored by double digits, they are 3-1 SU and ATS.
The Thunder did enough to build a sizable lead and hold off the Nuggets for 3.5 quarters, but Denver had the kind of toughness and fortitude to push their way through once the Oklahoma City got tight.
Nuggets vs Thunder Game 2 Betting Predictions
Thunder -10
Denver has matchup advantages here. The Nuggets destroyed OKC on the glass. But the effort level from the Thunder should be extremely high in Game 2, and there should be a little bit of an emotional letdown from the Nuggets.
I make this number right at Thunder -11 on power rating. Although, I think I’m going to have to upgrade Denver with how much confidence they’re playing with.
However, the spot makes up for that. I’ll take the Thunder in Game 2 tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a bad shooting performance, and still went over this number in Game 1.
The biggest thing is that SGA is a mismatch hunter, and Denver’s base scheme with their starters is to switch any action that doesn’t involve Nikola Jokic. That means that he can get Jamal Murray on him as the primary defender whenever he wants.
The Nuggets will zone a light double team, but not aggressively trap him. SGA was 3-of-5 against Murray. Expect to see more of those, though he also cooked Christian Braun.
Denver won’t make a big adjustment in Game 2, and SGA is a walking 33 in the playoffs.
Chet Holmgren Over 2.5 Blocks
I’m not particularly worried about foul trouble in this game. Although, it may become a problem later in the series.
For now, Holmgren still had four blocks, despite Jokic erasing him, and Aaron Gordon dunking through his soul. He can pick this up against the small-ball units for Denver.
Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 Assists
Gordon had nine potential assists in Game 1, and he’s likely to yet again function as the small-ball center in the non-Jokic minutes, where he acts as lead playmaker as well.
Passing is an underrated part of Gordon's game.
Nuggets vs Thunder Best Bets for Game 2
- Thunder -10 (-110)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points (-130)
- Chet Holmgren Over 2.5 Blocks (-105)
- Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 Assists (-115)
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