The Denver Nuggets (2-2) and Oklahoma City Thunder (2-2) will face off in Game 5 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Thunder are 10-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread (Thunder -10), with the over/under set at 221 total points. Oklahoma City is a -470 favorite to win outright, while Denver is +360 to pull off the upset.
The Thunder shattered the narrative about their ability to win in clutch time, and the Nuggets fumbled a prime opportunity to go up 3-1 and put the youngsters on the ropes heading into Game 5. Now it feels like the Thunder have all the momentum despite it being 2-2.
Has Oklahoma City gotten past the hard part yet? Or will Denver bounce back and shock the top seed in the West once again? Let's get into my Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, May 13.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Picks, Prediction for NBA Playoffs Game 5
My Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 5 best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Thunder -10 (-110)
Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds for Tuesday, May 13
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 221 -110o / -110u | +360 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 221 -110o / -110u | -470 |
- Nuggets vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -10
- Nuggets vs. Thunder over/under: 221 total points
- Nuggets vs. Thunder moneyline: Nuggets +360, Thunder -470
- Nuggets vs. Thunder best bet: Thunder -10 (-110)
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 5 Preview
Thunder. Thunder all day. Thunder every way in Game 5 tonight.
Teams in Game 5 who are double-digit favorites at home in the playoffs are 37-4 SU and 21-19 (53%) ATS since 2003. If those teams win, they win by 15.4 points per game and are 21-15-1 ATS (58%).
Teams that are double-digit favorites tied 2-2 in a series are 7-1 SU and ATS.
This is a Thunder spot.
Now, I bet Thunder last game, but it took Aaron Gordon A.) drawing a three-shot foul, B.) making one free throw, C.) a double-lane violation, D.) the Nuggets winning the tip, and E.) Gordon making a bank-shot three to sneak under the spread.
This is going to be much more like Game 2. Oklahoma City's general win profile in the playoffs will be blowouts. When things go well, they go really freaking well.
Not every Thunder win has to be like that, but they typically are. There’s a reason this team had the best point differential in NBA history.
Now, I want to be clear, I think the Nuggets are live to win this series, and I’ll like them in Game 6 if they lose in Game 5 tonight. I’ll also like the Thunder in Game 6 if they lose this game. But this is an OKC-spot, no question.
I have a spread projection for every game, and I make this only Thunder -7. But I want to think of this game a little differently.
I give the Thunder a 73% chance to win the game, based on my baseline projections. Given the spot, the matchup, and the trends above, I make that a little higher, say 80%, still below the spread.
However, if the Thunder win, with an 80% chance to do so, they will likely cover.
Game 4 was an outlier in that way, an OKC win in which they did not cover. It’s an outlier across the playoffs, as favorites who won the game have covered 78% of the time since 2003 and 74% of the time this season.
So as a result, I’m laying the points with Oklahoma City in Game 5 tonight, and will also be playing Thunder -13.5 (+150) and -19.5 (+310) on alternate lines as well.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Betting Predictions for Game 5
Nuggets Team Total Under 105.5 (-115)
The full game total for tonight's matchup opened at 217 and is now up to 220.
The under is 4-2 in Thunder wins this postseason. Not a great sample. The difficulty is trying to establish a game script.
Does OKC score 115 and hold the Nuggets to 95? Does OKC score 130 and the Nuggets score 110? Does garbage time mean buckets for most of the 4th and it goes over after tracking under? Does Denver find a way to get this back into clutch time and it’s another rock fight?
There aren’t great bounce-back numbers after the Nuggets shot 31% from the field and 23% from 3-point range last game.
Maybe the closest is that teams after shooting worse than 35% from the field and 25% from long range since 2015 (the “3-point era”) have gone under at a 9-5 clip in the next game.
I don’t want the combined total because I think OKC hits shots. I want the Nuggets team total under.
Michael Porter Jr. Under 11.5 Points (-105)
Porter has a shoulder sprain that he’s playing through. He told reporters has to take a numbing injection sometimes, but can’t take it before every game.
The injury isn't going to truly heal until the offseason. He went over in Game 3 (took the injection), and under in Game 4. The Thunder also put a lot more attention on his attempts after daring him a bit in Game 3.
I think Game 5 is an under spot for MPJ, possibly followed by an over in Game 6 at home.
Cason Wallace Over 5.5 Points (+100)
Wallace was Mark Daigenault’s counter to the Denver zone last game, and it worked perfectly, as he hit above the break jumpers to break the zone.
Even if Denver doesn’t throw the zone out there, Wallace has proved he’s a 16-gamer you can trust and takes nothing away on the defensive end.
I think he’ll continue to get rotation minutes in this series and throughout these playoffs.
Aaron Gordon Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-135)
Gordon had 13 rebound chances in Game 4 alone. He’ll continue to be a beast on the glass, and in his small-ball five minutes without Jokic, he effectively plays point-center. He’ll have opportunities for handoffs and transition assists again tonight in Game 5.
Even with my expectation of a better Thunder shooting game (fewer rebound chances) and a similar Denver offensive performance (fewer assists), this number is too low.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 5 Best Bets
- Thunder -10 (-110)
- Nuggets Team Total Under 105.5 (-115)
- Michael Porter Jr. Under 11.5 Points (-105)
- Cason Wallace Over 5.5 Points (+100)
- Aaron Gordon Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-135)
Nuggets vs. Thunder Betting Trends
