The NBA Eastern Conference Finals continue tonight in Cleveland, as the Cavaliers host the New York Knicks for a pivotal Game 3 showdown. With Cleveland trailing 0-2 in the series, the Cavaliers look to protect their home floor and spark a much-needed comeback, while New York is eager to maintain its momentum and take a commanding series lead.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, spread picks, and player props for Cavaliers vs. Knicks Game 3 on Saturday, May 23.
NBA Best Bets for Cavaliers vs Knicks Game 3
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Spread Picks
The Cavaliers have completely broken me in this series, but I feel obligated to ignore my emotions and bet the numbers.
If you look at full-game context, this Cavs team makes me deeply uncomfortable; their second-half fatigue is a massive issue, and the Knicks’ second-half adjustments are simply too strong to back Cleveland over a full 48 minutes.
However, the first-half splits tell a completely different story. Cleveland is 6–1 at home in the postseason compared to a miserable 2–7 on the road. They are a totally different team when feeding off the energy of the home crowd, and this is the ultimate kitchen-sink spot.
Instead of sweating a full-game collapse, I am leaning entirely into some of the most reliable historical trends in our Bet Labs database.
First, look at teams returning home for Game 3 after a road loss of six or more points: they are a staggering 117–68–5 ATS (63%) in the first half since 2005, yielding an over 20% ROI. When you narrow that filter down strictly to the Conference Finals or later, that trend skyrockets to an 81% hit rate (21–5 ATS).
But it gets even more granular. Teams down 0–2 returning home for Game 3 are 96–54–1 ATS (64%) in the first half over the last two decades. If that team is coming off a double-digit loss, the first-half cover rate jumps to 71%. And finally, if you isolate 4-seeds or 5-seeds in this exact position, they are 33–11 ATS (75%).
Put it all together—a 4/5 seed off a double-digit road loss down 0–2 in Game 3—and you are looking at an absurd 25–4 ATS first-half trend. That is an 86% historical clip.
I like the Cavaliers First Half -1.5 (-114 at FanDuel). I’m not trusting the roster; I am trusting a desperate playoff spot.
To maximize this, I am also taking a small nibble on the Cavaliers to Win Both Halves (+370 at DraftKings).
If Cleveland is going to show up and protect home court, I think there's a good chance we'll see them win each half independently by doing just enough to get us over the finish line.
Pick: Cavaliers First Half Spread -1.5 (-114) / To Win Both Halves (+370)
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Knicks vs. Cavaliers Player Prop Escalator
Hey, let's see if Karl-Anthony Towns can find a way to lose me even more money this round! I’ve lost some bets on him in this series because he was the Knicks' playmaking hub on offense in the previous rounds and now that idea is dead—he logged just one lone assist in Game 2.
But, that schematic shift has unlocked a completely different version of Towns. He is playing a much more traditional, physical center role right now, spending extended time anchoring the post and utilizing his big frame inside.
His rebounding baseline has become remarkably stable. He pulled down 13 rebounds on 24 chances in Game 2, which almost perfectly mirrors his Game 1 performance where he grabbed 13 boards on 23 opportunities.
The environment around KAT is a clear runway for him to dominate the glass. Josh Hart’s high-energy rebounding burst is noticeably down, as he managed just 4 boards on 16 chances last game. Meanwhile, Mitchell Robinson has been completely unplayable for extended stretches; he logged just 12 minutes in Game 2 because Cleveland is using the "Hack-a-Mitch" strategy to exploit his poor free-throw shooting.
Most importantly, Towns is staying on the floor. He is playing 38 minutes per game this round, which is a massive 10-minute jump from his baseline in the earlier rounds. More floor time naturally equals more statistical opportunities.
Across five total matchups against the Cavaliers this year, KAT is averaging 11.6 rebounds per game, with individual outings of 13, 13, and 14.
We should not be getting plus-money on Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds (+105 at BetMGM). This is a clear mispricing, which makes it the perfect environment to build an investment portfolio on his alt milestones.
If the 11.5 line is wrong, the alternate lines are wrong too. So, I am taking the baseline over and climbing the escalator:
Karl-Anthony Towns Rebounds Escalator
- Over 11.5 Rebounds (+105 at BetMGM)
- 13+ Rebounds (+165 at BetMGM). This has hit in 3-of-5 games vs. Cleveland.
- 15+ Rebounds (+375 at BetMGM). This hit 16 times in the regular season, representing a 21% implied probability that perfectly aligns with this heavy minute projection.
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Knicks vs. Cavaliers Series Future
Let's be completely honest: Sam Merrill has no business being on the basketball court in the Conference Finals. He is a massive net-negative defensively and his metrics scream that he is a liability in this specific matchup. He turned in an absolute disaster class in Game 2, going a frigid 0-of-7 from beyond the arc.
But here's the catch: Kenny Atkinson has a documented obsession with this man. He watched Merrill post a team-worst -17 rating in the opener and his response was to keep trotting him out there in multi-guard lineups. Atkinson simply refuses to give up on him.
Because I'm confident Merrill is going to continue seeing a highly consistent minutes floor, the volume will likely follow.
If we look at the series leaderboard data, Merrill currently has 3 made threes. Donovan Mitchell and Josh Hart are tied for the series lead with 6.
So, Merrill is sitting just three behind them. But look at the raw attempt volume: Mitchell has hoisted 18, Hart has taken 16, James Harden has 15, and Merrill has already fired 15 attempts.
He is right in the thick of the volume mix despite shooting dreadfully.
Role players historically experience upward shooting regression on their home floor. If this series is going to extend to five or six games—which aligns with my script of Cleveland taking care of business at home—it should benefit Merrill.
There is an inevitable game coming where the perimeter variance swings violently, and Merrill maps out a script where he flips a switch and launches nine triples.
I'm already holding a pre-series position on him to average 2.0 threes a game, but Merrill to Lead the Series in Three-Pointers at +3000 at bet365 is a value loop that is too glaring to ignore.
I'll throw down another quarter-unit as we ride this coaching madness together.
Pick: Sam Merrill to Lead Series in Three-Pointers (+3000)
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