The Golden State Warriors (23-23) and Oklahoma City Thunder (37-8) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Thunder are 9.5-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Thunder -9.5), with the over/under set at 224 total points. Oklahoma is a -455 favorite to win outright, while Golden State is +350 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, January 29.
Thunder vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks
Spread
This point spread aligns with my model's projection at -10. The Warriors are playing on short rest and are still without two key players, Jonathan Kuminga and Draymond Green. Thus, I see no value in either side laying or taking the points.
Over/Under
The total is where I think we can find the best value. My projection is south of 224.5.
My Pick: Under 224.5 (-115)
Thunder vs. Warriors Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -112 | 224 -112 / -108 | -455 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -108 | 224 -112 / -108 | +350 |
- Thunder vs. Warriors spread: Thunder -9.5
- Thunder vs. Warriors over/under: 224 total points
- Thunder vs. Warriors moneyline: Thunder -455, Warriors +350
- Thunder vs. Warriors best bet: Under 224.5 (-115)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors NBA Preview
I can't fathom why the market is so eager to back the Warriors in this spot. Golden State opened as an 11-point underdog, but that number has dropped to +10 across most sportsbooks.
Moreover, the Warriors will be on short rest after defeating the Jazz 114-103 at home. The victory was certainly expected, considering that Utah is the worst team in the Western Conference with a 10-35 mark.
Golden State is only five games removed from its lopsided 40-point loss to the Celtics. While one might have thought the defeat would've elicited a response, the Warriors look more like a team just trying to hang on, playing .500 (2-2) ball during that stretch.
The offense has suffered a massive setback, dropping from ninth in efficiency (116.9) last season to 17th (111.9) this campaign. They'll now face the Thunder, who have the best defensive rating in the NBA (103.9).
Oklahoma City's defense was on full display in the last meeting between the two teams, with the Thunder coming away with a 105-101 victory.
While Golden State ranks second in points generated from beyond the arc (41.7%), Oklahoma City is best suited to contain that threat as it limits opponents to a league-best 32.7% from the perimeter.
A closer look at the Thunder's hustle stats helps dispel any possible luck associated with those numbers as OKC also leads the league in contested 3-point shots, with 18.8 per game.
The absence of Draymond Green (8.4 PPG) and particularly Jonathan Kuminga (16.8 PPG) could almost certainly challenge the Warriors' depth, given that they're already struggling offensively and on short rest.
This season, the total is 5-2 to the under in games when the Warriors are on a back-to-back, and that trend bodes well with a quality defensive team like the Thunder coming to town.
Thunder vs. Warriors Best Bets, Predictions
Since we're angling toward the under for our best bet, targeting some plays that correlate with a lower-scoring game makes sense when building our BetRivers same-game parlay.
Oklahoma City's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one player who could have his fingerprints all over this game. The NBA's leading scorer (32.1 PPG) is a willing contributor on both ends of the floor and doesn't shy away from doing the dirty work on the glass.
Gilgeous-Alexander has a rebounding prop of 4.5 (-120), which he has exceeded in four of his last five games against teams that rank in the bottom 10 for rebounds allowed to opposing point guards. Golden State is a team that fits that, considering they allow 6.53 rebounds per game.
The Kentucky product racked up nine boards in their last meeting and surpassed 4.5 rebounds in four straight games against the Warriors.
Whichever rebounds don't fall to Gilgeous-Alexander might just be gobbled up by his teammate Isaiah Hartenstein. For the first time in his career, Hartenstein is averaging a double-double with 11.8 points and 12.2 rebounds.
His points + rebounds prop is available at 21.5 (-125), which he has exceeded in 13 of his last 15 road games.
Moreover, Hartenstein surpassed this projection in his last two meetings against the Warriors. With Green sidelined, I expect the Thunder to dominate the glass, creating even more value on Hartenstein's points + rebounds prop.
Best Bet: Under 224.5
Warriors vs. Thunder Parlay Picks
- Under 225.5
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 4.5 Rebounds
- Isaiah Hartenstein Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds
Parlay Payout: +510
Thunder vs. Warriors Betting Trends
