The Arizona Wildcats take on the Houston Cougars in Houston, Texas. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on ABC.
Houston is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. The total is set at 140.5 points.
Here’s my Arizona vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for February 21, 2026.
Arizona vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: Houston -5.5
My Arizona vs Houston best bet is on the Cougars to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Arizona vs. Houston Odds
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
- Arizona vs Houston spread: Houston -5.5
- Arizona vs Houston over/under: 140.5 points
- Arizona vs Houston moneyline: Arizona +205, Houston -250
Arizona vs Houston College Basketball Betting Preview
Arizona Basketball
On Wednesday night, Arizona came out with a solid (if unspectacular) win over a shorthanded BYU squad, snapping a brief two-game skid. It wasn’t flashy, but it was necessary, a win over an NCAA Tournament-caliber squad with an NBA-level star who erupted for 35 points.
Arizona has spent most of the season leaning on its physical advantages, and that formula remains intact even as availability questions linger.
Size is still the Wildcats’ calling card. Gigantic Lithuanian Motiejus Krivas and ferocious Tobe Awaka have been absolute hammers inside, dominating the paint and the glass. Arizona ranks in the 95th percentile nationally in both post-up frequency and post-up efficiency, per Synergy – a rare combination of volume and production.
Krivas and Awaka are the biggest reasons for that, and very few teams can handle that level of sustained interior pressure.
However, there are frontcourt concerns. Koa Peat is out with a lower leg strain, and his absence saps some of Arizona’s size and versatility up front. He’s especially effective attacking slower bigs off the bounce from the top of the key.
With him out, that shifts more responsibility to Awaka, Ivan Kharchenkov and Anthony Dell’Orso to provide supporting scoring punch. The status of Dwayne Aristode also looms large; the big wing shooter/defender has missed two straight games with illness, and his two-way presence would be meaningful.
Fortunately, Arizona’s backcourt can carry it for extended stretches, as well. Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries form one of the better guard pairings in the country, capable of taking over with pace and downhill pressure.
The limitation is perimeter shooting. Arizona rarely takes 3s (362nd in 3-point attempt rate, per KenPom) and doesn’t make many when it does. Dell’Orso and Burries are the only semi-consistent threats, especially if Aristode is out again.
When the paint dominance is humming, that doesn’t matter. But if opponents can shrink the floor, Arizona’s margin tightens quickly.
Houston Basketball
Houston is one of the rare Big 12 contenders entering this stretch fully healthy, a true luxury in a league that's lost some serious star power recently.
For coach Kelvin Sampson, that alone is notable; the Cougars have struggled with injuries in past seasons. With the roster intact, Houston looks every bit like a national title threat.
It starts with Kingston Flemings, who's blossomed into a legitimate superstar and easy NBA lottery pick. Per OptaStats, the electric point guard is averaging 25+ points per game against top-25 opponents, a staggering number that speaks to both his shot-making and his comfort in high-leverage environments.
The only other freshmen to do that in the last 25 years are Trae Young, Kevin Durant and Michael Beasley. He’s not just piling up points; he’s doing it against elite defensive schemes, often dictating terms late in games.
The Cougars’ defensive identity remains unmistakable. JoJo Tugler is brilliant on that end: switchable, instinctive, and disruptive around the rim, while Emanuel Sharp brings physicality and anticipation on the perimeter.
Houston blitzes ball screens and forces opponents into risky, cross-court passes, daring them to execute under pressure for 30 seconds.
Offensively, the Cougars are getting steady production in conference play from senior Milos Uzan and freshman Chris Cenac Jr., rounding out a balanced attack behind Flemings and Sharp.
They also have usable depth – Mercy Miller, Chase McCarty, Isiah Harwell and Kalifa Sakho – even if Sampson doesn’t always extend the bench far.
Houston remains elite on the offensive glass, always a trademark under Sampson. The small cracks come on the defensive boards and with occasional bouts of fouling, which can gift opponents easy points.
Still, with health, star power and that relentless defensive scheme, the Cougars remain one of the toughest outs in the country.
Arizona vs. Houston Betting Analysis
This feels like a brutal schematic matchup for Arizona. Houston’s aggressive defensive scheme is designed to force teams into contested jumpers and long, uncomfortable possessions. Doubling the post is an issue for the Wildcats, as it all but takes away Krivas and Awaka as options on the block.
The Wildcats want to punish you inside; Houston wants to shrink space, trap ball screens and dare you to make tough perimeter shots. That stylistic clash leans toward the Cougars, especially in a hyped home spot.
Health matters, too. With Peat out, Arizona’s depth and size up front take a hit in what’s already going to be an absolute war in the paint. This will be a brutally physical clash of titans, and losing a rotation piece in that environment compounds over 40 minutes.
If Aristode is also out again, that amplifies even more.
The market has clearly adjusted for Peat and the situational spot, so there isn’t some massive numerical edge baked in.
But Houston still checks more boxes. It's healthier, should be able to slow the tempo, has greater functional depth, and is more comfortable generating offense away from the rim. If the Coogs can force Arizona into a jumper-heavy profile and control the glass just enough, that’s a recipe to create a little separation.
In what should be a grinder, I’ll trust Houston’s scheme and versatility to cover a modest number. I’m laying the points with Houston.
My Pick: Houston -5.5
