The Colgate Raiders take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, KY. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Kentucky is favored by 31.5 points on the spread with a total sitting at 156.
Here’s my Colgate vs. Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for December 11, 2024.
Colgate vs Kentucky Prediction
My Pick: Colgate +30.5 (Play to +28)
My Colgate vs Kentucky best bet is on the Raiders spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Colgate vs Kentucky Odds, Spread
| Colgate Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+31.5 -110 | 156 -110 / -110 | OFF |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-31.5 -110 | 156 -110 / -110 | OFF |
- Colgate vs Kentucky spread: Kentucky -31.5
- Colgate vs Kentucky over/under: 156 points
- Colgate vs Kentucky best bet: Colgate +30.5 (Play to +28)
Colgate vs Kentucky NCAAB Betting Preview
Colgate Basketball
All great runs end eventually, and it seems like the Colgate Raiders' dominant reign in the Patriot League might be finished — for now.
Matt Langel is an elite basketball coach, but the Raiders lost a ton from last year's Patriot League-winning squad. Four starters departed, but losing Braeden Smith to the portal is probably the move that set the Raiders back.
Colgate faced a pair of high-major foes this year — Syracuse and NC State — and both scored 72 points. Neither are on the same level as Kentucky, but that shows the Raiders' pace (278th in adjusted tempo) can keep a game fairly low-scoring.
Colgate is 2-8 with just one victory over a D-I opponent, which oddly enough was a double-digit victory over a good UNC Wilmington squad.
Following Colgate has been quite odd — in the last four games, Colgate lost to App State by 22, Sam Houston State by four, Cornell by 27 and Northeastern by three.
Shooting is king, and that's Colgate's problem. In the two narrow losses, Colgate shot 37% and 39% from 3. In the two blowout losses, it shot well below 30%. That's not a coincidence.
Colgate is a competitive team if it's hitting 3s and one of the worst teams you will watch if the 3s don't fall.
The reliance on shooting intensified with Jeff Woodward's injury. One of the staples for Langel offensively is having a reliable post threat who scores efficiently and can pass. Nobody on the Raiders' roster can make that happen like Woodward or Keegan Records last year.
The bad thing is Colgate isn't a very good shooting team, connecting on 32% from 3 while attempting 46% of its shots from downtown. The Raiders can shoot it well — like I touched on earlier — but you never know which Colgate squad will show up.
The foursome of Nicolas Louis-Jacques, Brady Cummins, Parker Jones and Chandler Baker needs to perform here. The Raiders' size with these four on the perimeter is pretty good — each of the four is 6-foot-4 or taller. That should make the Wildcats' length less of a deterrent to Colgate letting it fly from 3.
Kentucky Basketball
Kentucky pulled off one of the best comeback victories of the year over Gonzaga on Saturday, and Mark Pope coached a gem. Pope knew Kentucky couldn't contain Gonzaga's pick-and-roll, which prompted Pope to flash zone for much of the second half.
I'd guess Pope reverts to man here against a Colgate team that wants to shoot.
Another note: Lamont Butler and Kerr Kriisa are both dealing with injuries. Butler missed the Gonzaga game and appears questionable for this one, while Kriisa suffered a Jones fracture in the Gonzaga game. With the two point guards shelved, Jaxson Robinson will start as the lead guard, with Travis Perry serving as his backup.
While Kentucky loves shooting it from 3, the Wildcats could dominate on the block in this matchup. Colgate is a very diminutive unit, with its two forwards standing 6-foot-6 and 6-foot-9.
Conversely, Kentucky starts 6-foot-11 Andrew Carr and 7-footer Amari Williams. Colgate's lack of size should bode well for the two dominating in the paint and potentially open up the perimeter if Colgate doubles. Williams and Carr are great passers, too, but Colgate may prefer playing straight up rather than leaving a shooter.
One thing I love about Kentucky is how little it turns the ball over while deploying a rampant pace. The Wildcats have the sixth-lowest turnover rate (13%) in America and play at the 17th-fastest pace.
Traditionally, playing fast will lead to some turnovers, but that's not the case for Coach Pope's squad. A lot of the success in limiting turnovers is attributed to every player on the court passing the ball well. If you can't handle the ball and pass, you aren't playing for Pope.
Kentucky will look to impose its pace against Colgate's slower tempo.
Colgate vs. Kentucky Betting Analysis
Obviously Kentucky will beat Colgate, but I think the Raiders can cover. Winning a game by 30 is a lot, especially against a team like Colgate that wants to play slow and can hit enough 3s to keep the game close enough.
Kentucky played two opponents with similar KenPom rankings as Colgate — Bucknell and Georgia State. The Wildcats scored 100+ points in both, but won by 28 points and 29 points.
I feel like Colgate can finish within 25 points in this one because I know the Raiders have a chance of shooting it well.
Take the points.
