The calendar has flipped, but our goal remains the same: find the best betting value in the sport of college basketball.
With that in mind, our staff has three spots for you to target for New Year's Day.
Read on for our college basketball best bets, including NCAAB picks and predictions for Thursday, January 1.
College Basketball Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 3 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Oakland vs. Youngstown State
By Sean Paul
I'm rolling with Youngstown State as a short favorite.
Most of the things Oakland is good at, Youngstown State can combat.
It'll likely come down to whether the Penguins shoot it well or not, and I'll make the bet that Cris Carroll, Rich Rolf and Bryson Dawkins get hot from downtown.
Pick: Youngstown State -1.5 (Play to -2.5)
Milwaukee vs. Wright State
By Evan Abrams
Milwaukee puts its undefeated Horizon League record on the line on New Year's Day in Dayton, Ohio, against Wright State.
But despite that undefeated record (and the fact that the Panthers and Raiders are both 7-7 on the season), the Panthers are still 6.5-point underdogs on the road.
Bart Torvik says that's too low (almost nine-point underdogs on the site), but my system — "Bet Teams Off Bad Loss, Short Rest" — says to back the road warriors.
In college basketball, teams coming off a poor loss with limited rest (Milwaukee just got crushed by 20 by Wisconsin on Tuesday) often bounce back stronger against the spread due to urgency, focus and quick turnaround adjustments.
A short window between games minimizes overthinking and keeps teams engaged, especially when facing an opponent that didn't struggle in its previous outing (Wright State pounded Oakland by 15 at home).
Market perception tends to overvalue the recent bad loss and undervalue the quick recovery potential, creating an inefficiency in pricing.
Teams in this position frequently show sharper defensive effort and improved shooting consistency as they attempt to correct course immediately, making them a profitable play despite fatigue concerns.
On top of that analysis, this system holds a strong 3% return on investment (ROI) since its inception and an even greater 11% ROI (18-13-1 overall record) this season alone, creating nice value for us.
Pick: Milwaukee +6.5
Cal Baptist vs. UT Arlington
Our third best bet features yet another afternoon mid-major affair as 10-4 Cal Baptist looks rebound from an opening WAC play loss to Utah Valley.
The Lancers will square off against UT Arlington, a team that's 8-5 and has been trading wins and losses for the entire month of December.
This should be a competitive game, but rather than hitting the moneyline or spread, projections flagged the total as the smart bet.
PRO Projections spit out a chunky edge and Grade-A pick on the game under 135.5, with a fair total of 127.5 at open and adjusted to 130.5.
Pick: Under 135.5 (Play to 130.5)
