While Duke vs. Arizona is the centerpiece of our Friday college basketball slate, there's plenty of betting value elsewhere.
I have targeted three matchups for this particular piece.
So, here's my college basketball best bets and three picks and predictions for Friday, including St. John's vs. Virginia and more on Nov. 22.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
St. John's vs Virginia
Virginia is in a tough spot this year. After Tony Bennett abandoned ship just weeks before games tipped off, the Cavaliers had to regroup.
One likely starter (Jalen Warley) left via the transfer portal, thinning an already shaky rotation. What remains is a team trying to play Bennett’s style (slow, defense-first), but one that feels more like a knockoff imitation.
St. John’s, for its part, is coming off a devastating double overtime loss to Baylor, complete with a buzzer-beater gut punch. Ordinarily, teams in that spot would be auto-fades on a back-to-back.
However, this is generally a veteran team replete with fifth-year seniors, and this is not Rick Pitino’s first rodeo on the sideline. The Red Storm will be ready to play.
Most importantly from a matchup lens, Virginia is going to struggle badly to score. St. John’s has length and athleticism at every spot on the floor, and the Cavaliers could find themselves in a similar predicament to last night.
In case you were watching football (or asleep), the Hoos managed a disappointing 42 points on 60 possessions (0.70 points per possession) against Tennessee’s suffocating defense.
I think the Red Storm puts the foot down on the gas pedal and emphatically takes care of Virginia today in the Bahamas.
I would also have some interest in a Virginia team total under should your sportsbook of choice offer one.
Pick: St. John's -11.5 (Play to -12)
Southern Illinois vs Florida
The start of Feast Week may have the college basketball world’s attention, but plenty of other non-MTE games still dot the schedule.
One of those off-peak contests takes place down in Gainesville on Friday night.
Southern Illinois has taken on a different identity under new coach Scott Nagy. The Salukis are running, ranking 87th nationally in tempo after two early-season track meets against Charleston and Oklahoma State.
A Monday slog against North Dakota State is the outlier – Nagy’s squad wants to play in transition.
Florida is happy to oblige. Todd Golden’s Gators are right up there with Southern Illinois, sitting 76th in KenPom’s tempo rankings.
Florida has multiple guards that can score and create, thanks to the addition of Alijah Martin alongside returning All-SEC star Walter Clayton Jr. Plus, the Gators' elite offensive rebounding – eighth nationally in offensive rebound rate, per KenPom – will earn them plenty of easy buckets.
Given my assessment of both teams’ offenses, I expect pace to exceed projections in this one. Paired with Florida’s efficiency, the over is enticing.
If Southern Illinois can find its way over 65 points – a number it's hit in all four contests, including at power conference foe Oklahoma State – then this number should be a winner.
Pick: Over 156.5 (Play to 159)
Incarnate Word vs Northern Arizona
To paraphrase the illustrious musical artist Meghan Trainor, this one is “all about that pace,” folks.
Neither one of these squads has much interest in playing up-tempo. Incarnate Word ranks 325th in average possession length, per KenPom, and Northern Arizona is even more crawling, landing 362nd in the same rankings.
These are half-court squads that both rank outside the top 300 in bench minutes – put differently, they lack the depth to run.
Of course, both defenses are poor. That is why the total is set in the 140s despite both teams playing at a glacial speed. However, those numbers are unfairly inflated due to both teams facing extremely poor shooting luck.
Northern Arizona’s D-I opponents have hit a ridiculous 45.5% of their triples, while UIW’s foes are at 39.1%. Both of those numbers are well above the current national average of 32.9%; some regression should be expected.
That would help efficiency stay at a reasonable level here.
Another key component is Incarnate Word freshman Jayden Williams, probably the best rookie in the Southland Conference. An impressive 6-foot-9 athlete, he's been an elite shot-blocker thus far in his young career. Taking away buckets at the rim would hamstring an already stagnant NAU offense.
With the way both teams refuse to run, this matchup could come in at around 60 possessions. That’s already enough to play the under, but with jump shooting regression looming and a shot-blocker patrolling one end of the court, I’m fully sold.
Pick: Under 144.5 (Play to 141)
