College Basketball Picks for Saturday, Feb. 22
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
It's time for another massive Saturday college basketball slate.
Our staff is diving into three particular games for their best bets.
So, without further ado, read below for college basketball best bets and odds, including three predictions and picks for Saturday, February 22.
(Even though our official recommendation does not include a parlay, there's an option for one below.)
NJIT vs. UMBC Best Bet
I really like the Retrievers on Saturday at -10 or better.
UMBC's four-out rim-attack-and-kick offense can really shine when it's humming. In the first matchup with NJIT, the Retrievers shot 24-of-30 (80%) at the rim on their way to a 23-point road victory.
NJIT fouls like crazy — the Retrievers got to the line 22 times in that first head-to-head meeting — and can't defend in transition, which is crucial against its up-tempo opponent.
The Retrievers pushed the ball off of 48 rebounds or turnovers in the first head-to-head matchup and scored 58 points, good for 1.2 points per possession.
After tough road games against Bryant and UMass Lowell this past week, this is a great spot for the UMBC offense to get it done at home against the league's worst team.
The key to this matchup, though, is on the other end of the court. UMBC has shifted to a more zone-heavy coverage scheme since the first matchup, and NJIT isn't built to beat zone.
The Highlanders are a horrific zone offense, as they're too reliant on guard-centric dribble creation and have no real playmaking big men to work through at the high post.
If Jim Ferry decides to break out the press, NJIT is the nation's worst press offense by points per possession (0.65).
Ultimately, UMBC only loses if it loses the shot volume battle. It's vulnerable against bigger teams that can crush it on the glass or teams that can beat it in the turnover battle.
NJIT isn't either of those things, so the Retrievers should smoke the Highlanders on Saturday.
Pick: UMBC -9.5
Duke vs. Illinois Best Bet
By Doug Ziefel
The Duke Blue Devils have been rolling, as they enter this matchup 23-3 on the year and 15-1 in ACC play.
However, they're set to step outside their conference and take on the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday at Madison Square Garden.
Illinois has had a rough go of it in Big Ten play, as it's 9-8 against the conference and is coming off two rough losses to Michigan State and Wisconsin.
The Illini's recent struggles make them a great buy-low pick here against the Blue Devils, though.
On paper, the Fighting Illini are one of the more well-rounded teams in the country. They rank 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
While those numbers aren't quite on the same level as Duke — which ranks third and fourth in those categories, respectively — Illinois isn't as outmatched as it may seem.
The key to this matchup will be the tempo. Duke operates slowly, sitting at 272nd in adjusted tempo, whereas Illinois is in stark contrast, with the 16th-fastest tempo in the country.
However, the Fighting Illini have a chance to thrive in either setting. If it's an up-tempo game, we should see them succeed in transition, which opens the door for big runs. However, if the game is slow, we really get to see how even these teams are.
Back the Fighting Illini to play up against Duke and cover the spread at "The World's Most Famous Arena."
Pick: Illinois +9.5 (Play to +8.5)
Saint Mary's vs. Gonzaga Best Bet
To put it lightly, "The Kennel" will be rocking on Saturday night — a nationally televised game, a persistent narrative that Gonzaga has lost its fastball and a revenge spot all rolled up into one. This has the makings of a Gonzaga statement game.
The Zags could've easily beaten the Gaels in Moraga in the teams’ first meeting despite shooting 3-for-17 from 3-point range.
With the game knotted at 58 in the closing minute, the Bulldogs shot themselves in the foot. Actually, I’m not sure that analogy works because they would've missed from close range.
After sending Harry Wessels to the line, Saint Mary's clung to a two-point lead, 60-58. Then Graham Ike got rejected at the rim, Ryan Nembhard missed a 3 and Ike missed a triple before Saint Mary's collected the final rebound.
The Gaels tacked on two meaningless foul shots to make it a four-point decision in their favor.
It was yet another close loss for Mark Few and the Bulldogs. The Zags have four losses that have come by one possession or in overtime. For a coach who historically has been solid in end-of-game scenarios, their late-game luck has to turn at some point.
Keep in mind, Gonzaga has appeared in nine straight Sweet 16s, which demonstrates its ability to win when it matters most.
Since that setback against Saint Mary's, Few’s team has been on the warpath. It's rattled off five straight wins, and if you sort Bart Torvik’s team rankings since its loss to the Gaels, Gonzaga is the ninth-best team in America.
Equally encouraging is the fact that Ike has played tremendously in February. Even in the loss to Saint Mary's, Ike went for 24 and eight. He was great again against San Francisco and Washington State, particularly on the glass, and he’s consistently avoided foul trouble.
Assuming we get more of the same from Ike, can we get a special game from Khalif Battle or Nolan Hickman?
Battle has teased fans with his potential, proving to be a boom-or-bust player in navy blue and white. In the past seven games, he’s exploded for 23-plus points on three occasions. All of those outbursts came at home, which is good news for Gonzaga in this spot.
If Hickman or Battle go off and Ike stays on the floor to battle with the Saint Mary's bigs for 30-plus minutes, there’s a chance we see a double-digit Zags win.
Pick: Gonzaga -5.5
