Gonzaga vs Kansas Odds, Pick & Prediction
| Gonzaga Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 152 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 152 -110o / -110u | +145 |
Two teams trending in opposite directions square off in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament as No. 4-seeded Kansas takes on the No. 5 seed Gonzaga.
The Jayhawks staved off an upset-hungry Samford team after a 22-point lead disappeared late in the second half.
Gonzaga, meanwhile, took McNeese out to the woodchipper.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
There are few teams that entered the NCAA Tournament in better form than Gonzaga. In what was a popular 5-12 upset entering the First Round, the Bulldogs quickly made hush of any discussion and throttled McNeese State.
Since the start of February, Gonzaga has the third-best offense in terms of efficiency and ranks No.10 altogether, per Bart Torvik. It was the insertion of Ben Gregg into the starting lineup in mid-January that sparked this turnaround, as just a few months ago the Zags’ at-large hopes seemed in doubt.
Led by Ryan Nembhard, Gonzaga doesn't turn the ball over and ranks top-10 in effective field goal percentage and 2-point percentage. Nembhard is able to combat the physicality of other guards, allowing Nolan Hickman to float around the perimeter.
Add in Graham Ike’s presence in the post and Anton Watson’s IQ, and this Gonzaga offense is rarely slowed. The way to do so is by getting Ike into foul trouble, which we saw against Saint Mary’s in the WCC Championship.
While the Bulldogs are capable of shooting the 3, and Gregg’s presence allows for them to stretch the floor, this is an offense that likes to probe through the pick-and-roll and the post. Oftentimes, it’s Ike and Nembhard operating in a two-man game to open up opportunities.
ShotQuality ranks Gonzaga fourth-best when it comes to finishes at the rim and inside the top 25 out of the half-court. Much of that has to do with the veteran presence of Nembhard.
Defensively is where Gonzaga is lacking. It's not very deep (343rd in bench minutes), so if foul trouble arises, Mark Few’s options are limited. Dusty Stromer has provided valuable minutes at times — as has Braden Huff — but that’s often it when it comes to options for the Zags.
The Bulldogs have an elite 2-point defense, thanks to their length inside. Three players stand at 6-foot-9 or taller, with Ike holding down the fort. Watson and Gregg can hold their own around the rim, too.
Instead, opponents look to attack Gonzaga out of isolation (11%, fourth-most in NCAA), looking for its best matchup before attacking. The Zags' 3-point defense is around NCAA average, and most shots come from there or in the mid-range.
Since Feb. 1, the Zags' defense ranks outside the top 300 in turnovers and 241st on the perimeter.
Kansas Jayhawks
The referees are under a lot of scrutiny after Kansas staved off an upset bid from Samford. The Jayhawks blew a 22-point lead that ultimately led to a controversial foul call — the block was clean — with less than 15 seconds left.
This is a tough call for the referee but he overreacted to Kansas falling and gave them the whistle
Perfect defensive play by Samford. It should have been Samford ball trailing by 1 with 14 seconds left rather than having to hoist a 3 to tiepic.twitter.com/YsEHbCkp7o
— Sean Barnard (@Sean_Barnard1) March 22, 2024
Kevin McCullar Jr.’s absence loomed large. Despite Kansas having no issues breaking down the Samford zone — 93 points on 1.18 PPP — when the Jayhawks needed a shot late, they struggled. Their lack of depth showed, getting tired legs from the full-court press. KU turned the ball over 18 times.
Kansas has long carved up zones in the past, which it won't see against Gonzaga. The Jayhawks stuck to a six-man rotation, with Jamari McDowell and Parker Braun combining for just five total minutes as the seventh and eighth men.
Despite Hunter Dickinson being a matchup nightmare for teams, Kansas ranks just 63rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Dickinson’s production sees a drop off without McCullar alongside him, though, with more focus being thrown toward the 7-foot-2 big.
The rest of Kansas’ players struggle to finish.
KU sits in the mid-100s in turnover rate and near the 300 mark in offensive rebounding. Despite having the double teams thrown toward Dickinson and nearly a quarter of 3s being left wide open, Kansas is outside the top 200 in 3-point percentage.
Dickinson can stretch the floor, but without McCullar, it's really just Johnny Furphy as the primary shooter. Nicolas Timberlake made three 3s against Samford, but he's shooting 30% from deep overall.
Will tired legs end up costing Kansas? That’s the question for the Second-Round matchup. Dickinson (37), K.J. Adams Jr. (39), Dajuan Harris Jr. (36) and Furphy (35) all played near-full games while being pressed nonstop.
On the other end, it’s no surprise that Dickinson and Adams help anchor an interior defense that ranks inside the top 15 in 2-point percentage.
But the biggest concern for this team is its 3-point defense.
ShotQuality ranks KU 346th defending catch-and-shoot 3s and an even worse 351st defending off-the-dribble 3s. Teams look to break down KU through the pick-and-roll, and we saw BYU be able to exploit Dickinson on the perimeter.
Kansas allows 42% of all attempts from 3.
Gonzaga vs Kansas
Betting Pick & Prediction
This line opened with Gonzaga as short favorites, and it's only risen in favor of the Bulldogs. Given the Zags' form of late and the underlying issues with this Kansas team, I expect a win in big fashion for Few's squad.
Kansas has less than a 36-hour turnaround against a physical Bulldogs team, one that's played at an elite level for weeks now.
Tack on McCullar's absence, and that should loom large against a much more talented Gonzaga team.
KU won't see much zone — which it's carved up often — and while Dickinson should find plenty of success, I trust the role players on Gonzaga much more down the stretch.
The lack of depth should begin to settle in — as we saw with Kansas' 22-point blown lead vs. Samford — as Gonzaga rides its hot offense to the Sweet 16.
I grabbed this at -3.5, but I would still play the Zags here. If you don't want to lay the points, look for a short moneyline parlay with a team like Tennessee.
