The Kansas Jayhawks take on the Baylor Bears in Waco, Texas. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Baylor is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. The total is set at 143 points.
Here are my Kansas vs. Baylor predictions and college basketball picks for February 1, 2025.
Kansas vs Baylor: College Basketball Odds
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 142 -110 / -110 | +120 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 142 -110 / -110 | -140 |
- Kansas vs Baylor spread: Baylor -2.5
- Kansas vs Baylor over/under: 142 points
- Kansas vs Baylor moneyline: Baylor -140, Kansas +120
- Kansas vs Baylor best bet: PASS | Lean Baylor -1.5
My Kansas vs Baylor best bet is on the Bears spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kansas vs Baylor College Basketball Preview
What's going on with Kansas? This doesn't look like your typical Bill Self-led team.
Honestly, I’ve had the same issue with the Jayhawks since the start of last season. They want to run Dajuan Harris Jr.-Hunter Dickinson or Dickinson-KJ Adams Jr. interior sets but lack the necessary floor spacing and shooting around them, so opposing defenses sag down and crowd the lanes.
Zeke Mayo and Rylan Griffen were excellent portal grabs, but they weren’t enough. And AJ Storr has been a total disaster.
Of course, Baylor’s defense hasn’t been much better. Scott Drew’s no-middle scheme has fallen off a cliff in recent years, as he lacks the perimeter defenders to keep opponents from shredding off the dribble.
Drew has adjusted by throwing out more 1-3-1 zone coverage — much more, as Baylor utilizes zones at a top-30 rate nationally.
In theory, a team that relies on interior-based actions (handoffs, ball-screen rollers, high-low actions) without shooting profiles poorly against zone defenses. At the same time, Dickinson and Adams are likely two of the best high-post pin men you could ask for.
Kansas has played one other zone-heavy team so far: Oakland. The Jayhawks scored 53 points on 49 possessions against Greg Kampe’s scheme, suitable for a rock-solid 1.08 PPP. Of course, comparing the Grizzlies to the Bears from a talent perspective is like comparing apples to oranges.
On the other end of the court, Baylor runs a spread pick-and-roll offense that combines the backcourt prowess of VJ Edgecombe, Robert Wright III and Jayden Nunn with the frontcourt dynamism of Norchad Omier. It’s a dangerous attack that ranks in the top 10 nationally in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric.
On the one hand, Kansas is an elite defensive squad, and the Jayhawks are elite because of their swarming ball-screen coverage (.79 PPP allowed, 88th percentile, per Synergy).
On the other hand, their defense is wildly overvalued because of lucky 3-point shooting variance (conference opponents have shot an unsustainable 28% from 3), and Baylor has the shooters to force that looming regression — especially when Edgecombe is playing like a superstar.
Ultimately, I lean toward Baylor in this matchup. The Bears have some interesting two-way schematic mismatches they can exploit, and they’re in a tremendous situational spot returning home after a tough overtime loss to BYU.
But what’s ultimately keeping me away is the rebounding and transition battle.
Kansas is deadly in transition, and the Bears spend far too much time defending in the open court (10 fast-break points per game allowed, 39th percentile, per CBB Analytics).
And Baylor’s zone defense will leave it open on the glass, where Adams and Dickinson have thrived in conference play (35% offensive rebounding rate, third in Big 12, per KenPom).
Also, there are all sorts of unclear injury issues in this game. Kansas is dealing with an injury to Harris, who missed the last game against UCF.
Meanwhile, Baylor has been playing without Jeremy Roach and Langston Love, who are both are questionable for Saturday's battle.
It's nearly impossible to place a bet on this game without knowing the status of those three.
