The Duke Blue Devils take on the Kansas Jayhawks in Las Vegas, NV. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. The total is set at 149 points.
Here’s my Kansas vs Duke predictions and college basketball picks for November 26, 2024.
Kansas vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Duke -3.5
My Kansas vs Duke best bet is on the Blue Devils spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kansas vs Duke Odds, Spread, Pick
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 149 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 149 -110o / -110u | -160 |
- Kansas vs Duke spread: Duke -3
- Kansas vs Duke over/under: 149 points
- Kansas vs Duke moneyline: Duke -160, Kansas +135
- Kansas vs Duke best bet: Duke -3.5
My Kansas vs Duke NCAAB Betting Preview
You probably think something is a bit off since No. 1 Kansas is an underdog to No. 11 Duke.
But you have to dig a little deeper.
Duke is ranked five spots above Kansas in KenPom, a brilliant indicator for future results.
It's not like Kansas is 5-0 by playing a cupcake schedule, though. Two of the true college hoops blue bloods — Michigan State and North Carolina — fell victim to the Jayhawks, so they are plenty battle tested for Duke.
Hunter Dickinson is having a sensational final college season. He is dominating on the offensive end, posting 17.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game while flashing elite passing. He's the heart and soul for the Jayhawks, and he will need to have a huge game to knock off Duke.
I'm typically a proponent of teams having great depth. However, as good as having depth can be, it can also be a curse early on.
It seems like Kansas is trying to figure out the proper balance between David Coit, Rylan Griffen and AJ Storr, but I'm not sure that playing each of them for 20 minutes a game is beneficial.
Storr is a very streaky scorer, albeit a talented one, Griffen is an instant impact with his shooting and Coit is more of a ball-handler.
The simple solution is for Storr or Griffen to play starter minutes.
Kansas is excellent in two offensive categories: limiting turnovers (12% turnover rate) and shooting inside the arc (60%, 21st nationally).
While Duke doesn't have a bonafide point guard, Dajuan Harris Jr. sets the table for Kansas. The veteran national-title-winning point guard has also stepped up as a scorer, posting a career-best 9.2 points per game on a career-best 54% from the field.
He's still the type of player teams will dare to shoot, but Duke will aim to keep him from probing in the paint.
Duke Basketball
Duke pulled off a terrific win over Arizona over the weekend in a game that was never really in doubt.
The most impressive part of the road win was Duke's intense defense traveled to the West Coast. Believe it or not, the Blue Devils own the country's most efficient defense, per KenPom, as they are sitting in the top 20 in opponent 2-point field goal, 3-point percentage and effective field goal percentage.
Why is Duke's defense so elite? Well, size is a major factor. Duke's main rotation players are 6-foot-5 or taller, with freshmen phenoms Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach proving to be a deterrent to opponents' driving attempts.
Fkagg has been as advertised, which is pretty impressive given the immense amount of attention drawn to the 17-year-old. The National Player of the Year candidate leads Duke in every main statistical category, headlining with 17.7 points, 8.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game.
Flagg has been great when the lights shine most, scoring 26 points versus Kentucky and 24 versus Arizona.
I am worried about Duke's point guard play, as Caleb Foster and Tyrese Proctor are better off the ball. But Jon Scheyer deserves credit for putting the ball in Flagg's hands in the big moments. It shows in the eye test, but Flagg's 30.7% usage rate confirms what the eyes say.
When Duke lost to Kentucky, it could not hit shots from 3. Looking back, that looks like the outlier, as its porous 4-for-24 from 3 in the loss is far worse than its season-long 37% from 3.
Proctor and Kon Knueppel are both shooting above 40% from 3 and have proven to be a vital part of Duke's perimeter shooting attack.
Shooting is key for Duke, as 47% of its shots come from long range.
The good thing is Duke's elite defense can bail it out of a poor shooting night — like it nearly did against Kentucky. Very few teams have the luxury of surviving a bad shooting night like the Blue Devils.
Kansas vs Duke Betting Analysis
Duke's length could force the Jayhawks into taking jumpers, which is a wonderful plan to beat Kansas.
While the team has more shooting than last year, three of its five starters would rather score inside than take outside jumpers. That's a bit of a problem in this particular spot.
Another individual matchup angle to watch is Flagg versus KJ Adams Jr. The veteran forward is known for his defense, but Flagg has the quickness and height advantage.
I'm not sure Adams can really contain Flagg, so it could be a big scoring night from the projected No. 1 NBA draft pick in Vegas.
