The Kentucky Wildcats take on the Gonzaga Bulldogs in Seattle, WH. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Gonzaga is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. The total is set at 164.5 points.
Here’s my Kentucky vs. Gonzaga predictions and college basketball picks for December 7, 2024.
Kentucky vs Gonzaga Prediction
My Pick: Gonzaga -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
My Kentucky vs Gonzaga best bet is on the Bulldogs spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kentucky vs Gonzaga Odds, Spread
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 167 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Gonzaga Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 167 -110o / -110u | -270 |
- Kentucky vs Gonzaga spread: Gonzaga -5.5
- Kentucky vs Gonzaga over/under: 164.5 points
- Kentucky vs Gonzaga moneyline: Gonzaga -270, Kentucky +220
- Kentucky vs Gonzaga best bet: Gonzaga -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
My Kentucky vs Gonzaga College Basketball Betting Preview
Kentucky Basketball
Kentucky fans are the only people who truly believed Kentucky had the goods to be a top-five team in the country. Alas, the Wildcats are No. 4 in the AP Poll, though they are sure to drop after losing to Clemson in the SEC/ACC challenge.
I do think Kentucky has a bit of an identity crisis. Late in the game, the Wildcats relied on shooting from Otega Oweh, who leads the Wildcats with 16 points per game but only makes one 3 per contest.
In Mark Pope's high-volume shooting offense, I won't understand Oweh shooting it late in games — while Koby Brea, a 60% shooter from 3, sits on the bench, and Jaxson Robinson doesn't get a touch. We'll see how the Wildcats respond in late-game situations here because it'll likely need a late surge to win here.
It's also worth noting that starting guard Lamont Butler seems iffy to suit up. The senior guard has been an excellent connector for the offense and provides lockdown perimeter defense. If Butler can't go, expect a steady diet of freshman guard Travis Perry behind the energetic shooter Kerr Kriisa.
Pope relies on the perimeter jumper as much as any coach in America. The Wildcats attempt 3s on 43% of field goals and convert 36.8% of the time. The success from 3 opens the floor to get good looks from two, where the Wildcats shoot a dazzling 60.1%.
I'm not surprised Pope has an outstanding offense team, but I am surprised his defense ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency. Even on the bad shooting nights, Kentucky's ability to score inside and stout defense will make them competitive.
Kentucky is different than your traditional high-volume shooting team, as it starts a pair of players 6-10 or taller — Andrew Carr and Amari Williams. Carr has developed nicely under Pope, shooting 56% from the field and 38% from 3. Meanwhile, Williams's ability to operate in DHOs and protect the rim is something Kentucky needed.
Gonzaga Basketball
Gonzaga and Kentucky have quite a few commonalities. The Bulldogs don't have one scorer who stands out as the go-to guy. Unsurprisingly, Gonzaga can play super fast, ranking 65th in adjusted tempo.
Mark Few is using his presumed star, Graham Ike, differently this year. The 6-9 forward is playing just 17 minutes per game but averaging a team-high 13.8 ppg and 6.5 rpg, however his biggest problem is defense and fouling.
Some coaches wouldn't have the gall to bench Ike like Few, but the emergence of Braden Huff makes it an easy choice. A versatile pick & roll baller, Huff is averaging 13.5 ppg in 18 minutes per game. Regardless of whether Huff and Ike play, both can score it.
The two bigs should take point guard Ryan Nembhard out to a nice dinner for Christmas, as he thrives at finding his star bigs' good looks. Nembhard is tops in the country with 10.6 APG and just 1.8 turnovers.
Gonzaga will always be one of the best offensive teams in America as long as Coach Few is in Spokane. The defense has occasionally hindered the Bulldogs' potential, though. It doesn't seem like it's the case this year, as Gonzaga ranks 16th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
While Kentucky's offense runs through the perimeter, Gonzaga focuses a lot more on scoring inside. That could be to the Zags' detriment if Kentucky is trading 3s for 2s, but they can make a living inside the arc. We just saw how Kentucky looks offensively if the shots don't fall, and it led to their demise.
The real decider here is if Gonzaga's defense is one of the best at containing the 3 or if some luck is involved. Opponents are shooting just 24% from 3 versus Gonzaga, with 40% of shots coming from 3. Can Gonzaga's traditionally strong perimeter defense continue, or will Kentucky turn the tide? I think Gonzaga can hold down Kentucky's offense.
Kentucky vs. Gonzaga Betting Analysis
I suggest taking Gonzaga now before the line moves. It sits at 5.5 right now, but I would take up to 6.5, which the line likely jumps to 6.5-7 if Butler is ruled out.
What Butler provides is something no other Wildcat can replicate — he controls the offense and can blow up the Gonzaga P&R game better than any other Kentucky defender. With or without Butler, I like Gonzaga. But the path feels much easier if the Wildcats' most important player is out.
