The Kentucky Wildcats take on the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville, Tennessee. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Vanderbilt is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of 160.5. The total is set at -280 points.
Here’s my Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt prediction and college basketball picks for January 27, 2026.
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt Prediction
My Pick: Vanderbilt -6.5 (Play to -8)
My Kentucky vs Vanderbilt best bet is on the Commodores to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 160.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 160.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
- Kentucky vs Vanderbilt spread: Vanderbilt -6.5
- Kentucky vs Vanderbilt over/under: 160.5 points
- Kentucky vs Vanderbilt moneyline: Kentucky +230, Vanderbilt -280
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt College Basketball Betting Preview
Kentucky Basketball
Kentucky is lava hot right now, snagging wins in five straight games, including a pair of road wins over LSU and Tennessee.
Kentucky is the king of winning close games, capturing three of its last four games by two possessions or fewer. Is that sustainable against better teams? I'm not sure. Vanderbilt is in a different weight class than the LSU's, Tennessee's and Texas' of the world.
So, what's been the recipe for Kentucky's fortune changing? More offensive consistency. The Wildcats rank No. 32 in offensive efficiency in their past five games, per Bart Torvik.
That correlates with Otega Oweh asserting his dominance and looking like the preseason SEC Preseason of Year. He scored 18+ points in four of his five games, and he's the guiding force behind the Wildcats' 44% free-throw rate.
I just wonder how sustainable this offensive success is. Kentucky is outside the top 200 in 2-point percentage during this run and has very few shooters. We'll see if Kentucky's "rely on fouls" approach is sustainable.
The Wildcats' inability to grab defensive rebounds is hurting their overall defensive numbers.
For the season, Kentucky is 32nd in KenPom's defensive efficiency, but it's just 91st over its past five games, per Bart Torvik.
The Wildcats are allowing offensive rebounds at a 33% clip in that span. Plus, opponents are finishing at a 55% clip inside the arc.
Part of both of those issues occurs when freshman big man Malachi Moreno is off the court. He's the true rim protecting and rebounding presence on the roster. There isn't another player with his rim-deterrence on the team to step in when he's in foul trouble, and he often is in that very said position.
Vanderbilt Basketball
I think we're approaching the "Vanderbilt is underrated" portion of the season. Losing three straight games — and two in blowout fashion — wasn't pretty for the Commodores. That led to some people labeling them as frauds, but I still value them as a top-10 level squad.
There are certain limitations to this Vanderbilt team, which Florida and Texas exposed. If you have seven-footers who can score inside, Vanderbilt lacks the size to hold them down.
Thankfully for the Dores, Kentucky's recent struggles at scoring inside should help them. Moreno is the only inside scoring threat to be scared of, and I already touched on his issues.
The Commodores' floor spacing and offensive versatility should keep Kentucky on its heels. They have a pair of 40% snipers in Tyler Tanner and Tyler Nickel, along with Duke Miles and his inside scoring prowess.
Prepare to see a lot of Tanner identifying mismatches and using his speed to score. He might be slight, but he packs a major scoring punch.
Vanderbilt is No. 10 in KenPom's offensive efficiency, and it also shoots 59% on 2s and 36% on 3s. Without a doubt, Vandy is one of the better offensive units in the sport.
I felt that the Commodores' defensive issues were a bit magnified by three tough matchups. Florida, Texas and Arkansas each have a presence on the offensive glass and want to score the ball inside. That'll be an issue for Vandy if its offense lets up at all, as its starting bigs are both 6-foot-7.
All in all, Vanderbilt is 53rd in defensive efficiency over its past five games. It's not quite the top-20 level it maintained prior, but it's not a horrible mark for a team that's more offense-driven.
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Betting Analysis
With the line sitting at just 6.5, I'll gladly take Vandy at home. It can blow teams out with its pace and shooting.
We saw it plenty before the losing skid, and we saw it again against Mississippi State.
Plus, I don't buy into Kentucky much. The recent run was nice, but I don't see it carrying into one of the SEC's toughest road venues.
My Pick: Vanderbilt -6.5 (Play to -8)
