The Louisville Cardinals take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, KY. Tip-off is set for 5:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kentucky is favored by 12 points on the spread with a moneyline of -700. The total is set at 159 points.
Here are my Louisville vs. Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for December 14, 2024.
Louisville vs Kentucky Prediction
My Pick: Louisville +9 or Better
My Louisville vs Kentucky best bet is on the Cardinals spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Louisville vs Kentucky Odds, Spread, Pick
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -108 | 159 -110o / -110u | +440 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -112 | 159 -110o / -110u | -600 |
- Louisville vs Kentucky spread: Kentucky -10
- Louisville vs Kentucky over/under: 159 points
- Louisville vs Kentucky moneyline: Kentucky -600, Louisville +440
- Louisville vs Kentucky best bet: Louisville +9 or Better
My Louisville vs Kentucky College Basketball Betting Preview
Louisville Basketball
I was extremely high on Pat Kelsey's team entering the season, as I thought the Cards would be a legitimate dark horse in the ACC.
However, injuries to Koren Johnson, Kasean Pryor and Aboubacar Traore have significantly impacted them.
Pryor was averaging 12 points and six rebounds per game, so his scoring presence down low will be a massive loss. Johnson and Traore were chipping in roughly 20 minutes a piece off the pine, so what was once a deep Cards team is now slowly disintegrating.
The Cards have had a tough stretch in the early going, ranking in the top 20 in terms of strength of schedule. When the season started, I circled this spot because they would be catching a lot of points here.
The biggest key for the Cards will be their shooting from beyond the arc, which has been a recurring struggle.
The Cards are 79th in adjusted offensive efficiency, which is impressive given that they shoot only 27% from deep. Kentucky has been excellent at defending the triple, but regression looms in that area.
The Cards have been criminally unlucky thus far, ranking 23rd in Rim and 3 Rate. They should have a couple more wins on their schedule, so they may be undervalued heading into this matchup.
Defensively, they rank third in adjusted shot quality, so Kelsey has done an outstanding job focusing on the defensive tenacity. Their defense should keep them in most games, and the Wildcats are in for a rude awakening.
Kentucky Basketball
While I am impressed with Mark Pope's work with the Wildcats thus far, we need to pump the breaks on how good they are. The wins over Duke and Gonzaga are extremely impressive, but we may have hit the peak of the market on this team.
Let's not forget that the Cats were 6-7 point underdogs in the games against the Blue Devils and Bulldogs. Those are impressive victories, but I am not running to the window to lay double digits with them right now.
The Cats rank 130th in Rim and 3 Rate, and the metrics suggest they should have a worse overall record right now. I am impressed with the team's overall makeup, but we could see an imminent bump in the road moving forward.
Defensively, they have allowed their opponents to shoot a remarkably low 26% from deep, but they are 195th in attempts allowed per game. That suggests that teams are getting opportunities but are not cashing in.
The Wildcats are 324th in turnovers forced per game, but they have done a solid job blocking shots.
Like Louisville, they are also dealing with injuries, notably guard Lamont Butler, who is questionable to suit up.
Guard Kerr Kriisa is still out, and when he will return is unknown. Regardless, I think Butler's injury is more significant to monitor, as he is a true anchor of their backcourt.
With the Cards missing Pryor, the Wildcats should be able to capitalize down low. The Wildcats' bigs — Brandon Garrison and Amari Williams — have been superb so far this season, and they have an edge.
If the Cats cover the number, it will be because they completely dominated the interior, and their opposition shooting woes continue.
But despite the strong edge down low, I do not buy it.
Louisville vs Kentucky Betting Analysis
I am rolling with the Cards here, even though it's an ugly spot to back them considering their injuries.
But the Cats could be without Butler again, and they have been an extremely lucky team thus far.
I still love the talent on Kelsey's team, and their defense could be a key difference maker in the matchup. Besides, they are due for serious shooting fortune from beyond the arc, as they are getting consistent good shots up.
Meanwhile, the Cats are due for serious regression on both sides.
