The McNeese Cowboys take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, MS, on Saturday. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Mississippi State is favored by 9 points on the spread with a moneyline of -500. The total is set at 144 points.
Here are my McNeese vs. Mississippi State predictions and college basketball picks for December 14, 2024.
McNeese vs Mississippi State Prediction
My Pick: Over 143 (Play to 146)
My McNeese vs Mississippi State best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
McNeese vs Mississippi State Odds, Lines, Pick
| McNeese State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 144 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 144 -110o / -110u | -500 |
- McNeese vs Mississippi State spread: Mississippi State -9
- McNeese vs Mississippi State over/under: 144 points
- McNeese vs Mississippi State moneyline: Mississippi St -500, McNeese St +375
- McNeese vs Mississippi State best bet: Over 143 (Play to 146)
My McNeese vs Mississippi State College Basketball Betting Preview
McNeese-Mississippi State will be among the most intriguing matchups this Saturday.
Schematically, these are two very similar squads.
Both are ball-screen-centric offenses that run aggressive ball-screen coverages on the other end.
Will Wade put McNeese on the map with his triple-switch ball-screen coverage and press-happy zone traps. The result is a havoc-based defense that keeps the ball on the perimeter while forcing plenty of turnovers.
Similarly, Chris Jans-led squads are overaggressive with their off-ball help, denying the rim and creating havoc.
Typically, the way to beat either squad is over the top. Like most aggressive ball-screen coverages, the Cowboys and Bulldogs allow plenty of open 3s.
So, which team could do that better?
I would argue both.
Mississippi State is a comfortable jump-shooting team, shooting over 34% from 3. Josh Hubbard is a superstar point guard who can create his own shot (20 PPG, 43% shooting from 3 on over eight attempts per game) or play-make for others (3.4 APG) without turning it over (2.8% turnover rate, the ninth-lowest mark nationally).
With Hubbard at the controls, Mississippi State is an excellent ball-handling team that can handle on-ball pressure (1.21 Press PPP, 96th percentile).
And if you can handle McNeese’s havoc, you can rip it apart with weak-side spot-up shooters (ranking 359th nationally in 3-point rate allowed and 269th in Open 3 Rate allowed). The Bulldogs are rather good at creating unguarded catch-and-shoot opportunities, and they have two solid wing shooters in Claudell Harris Jr. and RJ Melendez.
McNeese is the more downhill rim-reliant squad, but the Pokes surprisingly rank first nationally in Open 3 Rate, and they are due for all sorts of positive 3-point shooting regression — they’re shooting 27% from 3, but ShotQuality projects that mark closer to 34% based on the “quality” of attempts.
I'd imagine that positive regression finally hits against a Mississippi State defense that allows unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers at the fourth-highest rate nationally (61%).
Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a barrage of 3-point shots in this one, and that’s telling me to bet the over.
I also suspect the pace will be pretty quick, given both squads attempt to generate transition opportunities from turnovers.
And both teams foul a little too often — ranking sub-250th nationally in free-throw rate allowed — which could add points to the board while frequently stopping the clock. McNeese has a few foul merchants on the squad, Sincere Parker chief among them, and ranks in the top 50 in free-throw rate, so they could live at the line.
Furthermore, the Bulldogs could generate a ton of second-chance points. They smash the glass, ranking 32nd nationally in offensive rebounding rate and second in second-chance points per game (18).
Meanwhile, McNeese’s aggressive defense leaves the glass wide open, ranking 280th in defensive rebounding rate while allowing over 12 second-chance points per game (20th percentile).
There are some injury issues to keep track of, specifically Kanye Clary for Mississippi State and Joe Charles for McNeese.
Still, the total seems far too low. KenPom, Bart Torvik, EvanMiya and Haslametrics all project the over/under between 146 and 149.
As long as both teams make their 3s, free throws and put-back buckets, I expect them to combine for 150 or more.
