The NCAA Tournament resumes tonight with Sweet 16 Action. I'll be focusing on the late games tonight as there should be a lot of points on the board when Arkansas and Arizona square off. That should translate to a couple of assists for D.J. Wagner.
Meanwhile, Keaton Wagler and Chris Cenac Jr. will be among the potential first-round picks on the floor when Illinois faces Houston.
Read on for NCAA Tournament player props for Thursday, March 26.
NCAA Tournament Player Props for Thursday, March 26
- D.J. Wagner Over 1.5 Assists (-180, bet365)
- Chris Cenac Jr. Over 7.5 Rebounds (-130, Fanatics)
- Keaton Wagler Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists (-120, bet365)
This season, D.J. Wagner has taken a backseat to the Razorbacks' freshman guards Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas. He is averaging 7.4 points and 2.5 assists in 23.8 minutes per game. However, he still offers some value with his props.
Wagner has recorded two assists in 65% of his games this season. As a result, his odds are approaching -200 tonight.
While that makes him more of a parlay piece tonight, he has four assists in each of his last three games. Arkansas has scored at least 86 points in each of those games. Check out Wagner's latest trends:
Tonight's assignment will be more difficult against Arizona, which is third in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, tonight's total is 164.5 points, and not all of those points will be scored by the Wildcats.
Wildcats coach Tommy Lloyd's first priority will be limiting Acuff's impact. If John Calipari counters by playing him more off-ball, that will open up assist opportunities for Wagner.
Considering we only need two, I like his chances tonight. I would also take him for three assists at +160 and four assists if that becomes available later.
Pick: D.J. Wagner Over 1.5 Assists
A five-star recruit in the 2025 class, Chris Cenac Jr. has had an up-and-down freshman season for the Cougars. Of course, Kelvin Sampson is not the easiest head coach to play for as a true freshman, but Cenac has still earned nearly 25 minutes a game.
Sampson's tough love may already be paying off. In the first two games of the NCAA Tournament, Cenac has been a machine on the glass, recording 18 rebounds against Idaho and nine against Texas A&M.
Dating back to the Big 12 Tournament, Cenac had 14 rebounds against Kansas, giving him at least nine in three of his last four games. He is now averaging 7.8 rebounds per game for the season.
Action PRO projects him for 6.8 rebounds, but tonight he should have more opportunities.
This game has several projected first-round picks and two top-10 offenses. When Houston is involved, you can usually expect a lot of defense, which translates to rebounds.
Illinois is also 365th in defensive turnover percentage, which means the majority of Houston's possessions will end in a field goal attempt.
Houston is 26th in offensive rebounding percentage, and Cenac accounts for 2.2 offensive rebounds per game. A few tonight will pave the way for him to collect eight or more in total.
Pick: Chris Cenac Jr. Over 7.5 Rebounds
While Keaton Wagler leads Illinois with 17.8 points, he also averages 4.9 rebounds per game and a team-leading 4.4 assists per game.
Over his last 20 games, Wagler has had at least four rebounds and assists 13 times. That works out to a 65% hit rate, which matches how often he has gone his RA line in that span while averaging 9.6 per game.
As mentioned, I am expecting rebounding opportunities in this game. Houston is averaging 23.7 three-point attempts per game, accounting for 41% of its overall field goal attempts.network.com/ncaab/
The long rebounds opportunities should benefit a guard like Wagler, who has had six rebounds in four of his past nine games.
Wagler also boasts a 23.6 assists rate, which leads the Fighting Illini despite the return of Kylan Boswell from injury. He has had at least three assists in nine of his last 10 games.
Wagler boasts a solid floor, both rebounding and facilitating. If his own shot isn't failing, he can affect the game in other areas, which is why I like him for nine rebounds and assists combined tonight.
Pick: Keaton Wagler Over 8.5 Rebounds and Assists
