The North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Florida Gators in Charlotte, NC. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Florida is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. The total is set at 167.5 points.
Here are my UNC vs. Florida predictions and college basketball picks for December 17, 2024.
UNC vs Florida Odds
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 167.5 -110 / -110 | +145 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 167.5 -110 / -110 | -170 |
- UNC vs Florida spread: Florida -3.5
- UNC vs Florida over/under: 167.5 points
- UNC vs Florida moneyline: Florida -170, UNC +145
- UNC vs Florida best bet: Florida -4.5 (Play to -5)
My UNC vs Florida best bet is on the Gators spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UNC vs Florida College Basketball Betting Analysis
Fast is the perfect adjective to describe North Carolina. The Tar Heels rank sixth in adjusted tempo and have the guards to play with extreme pace.
North Carolina needs its guards to perform well to beat a top-10 caliber squad like Florida.
RJ Davis, in particular, needs to step up. Sure, Davis leads North Carolina with 17.5 points per game, but he's shooting a woeful 35% from the field and 25% from 3. I wouldn't consider those winning numbers.
Seth Trimble, Elliot Cadeau and Ian Jackson are no slouches in their own regard. Trimble has morphed into the second option next to Davis thanks to his vastly improved perimeter and free throw shooting.
A five-star recruit, Jackson is perhaps the biggest X-factor, as the skilled scorer pours in 10 points in just 20 minutes per game. But where is Hubert Davis finding the minutes for Jackson? Is it at the expense of Cadeau?
It's a jumbled backcourt with loads of talent, but finding the right combination is the key.
Meanwhile, the Heels are very mediocre in two key offensive areas.
First, they rank 257th in assists per made field goals. That speaks to UNC's propensity for playing in transition and dependency on its guards scoring in one-on-one situations.
The other issue is shooting. North Carolina shoots just 32% from 3 — Cadeau and Davis shooting just 25% from 3 is a huge part of the problem.
Life after Armando Bacot has proved to be difficult for North Carolina's bigs. The play up-front has been a major hinderance to UNC's success, as the combination of Jae'Lyn Withers, Jalen Washington and Ven-Allen Lubin isn't getting the job done.
Lubin plays the most of the three and starts, but Florida has the size to completely dominate him and maybe force the taller 6-foot-10 Washington into the game.
None of the choices are good, so North Carolina needs to find a way to minimize getting beaten up on the glass.
I have no clue how North Carolina contains Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu. (And that's not to mention Sam Alexis and Thomas Haugh off the bench.)
Given the Heels' disastrous interior, all four would likely start in Charlotte.
I'm willing to call Condon one of the least-known budding stars in college basketball. He's an All-SEC caliber forward who averages 12 points, seven rebounds and a block per contest. The Aussie primarily plays the four and has a five-inch height advantage over UNC freshman Drake Powell.
The Gators' interior isn't even the best part of the team; it's the backcourt. Walter Clayton Jr. is performing like an All-American so far, averaging 19 points per game on 47% shooting and 37% from 3.
Clayton has maintained his hot streak lately, tallying 20+ points in three of his past four games.
A very familiar name to college hoops fans, Alijah Martin, of FAU Final Four lore, is Clayton's backcourt mate, and he's averaging 15.2 points per game.
Todd Golden is known as an offensive-minded coach, and his teams tend to shoot a ton of 3s. This Florida team is no different, as the Gators' seventh-ranked offense (Per KenPom) attempts 44% of their field goals from 3. Florida isn't a great perimeter shooting team, though, connecting on 33% of its shots from deep.
I wouldn't go as far to say Florida is live-or-die by the 3. That's because the Gators match the elite offense with a stout defense (22nd in defensive efficiency).
The Gators' length helps hold teams to just 42% from inside the arc, so opponents have to convert from downtown.
Otherwise, brace for impact because the night could get long, fast.
North Carolina has faced four KenPom top-20 teams heading into Tuesday and lost all four by three-plus points, which matches the line for this one.
Two of the Heels' losses were to Auburn and Alabama, a pair of teams with imposing length similar to Florida. They both abused North Carolina on the interior for 40 minutes.
I can't see this one going differently, as Florida is among the best teams in the sport while UNC doesn't look right.
Pick: Florida -4.5 (Play to -5)
