The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Houston Cougars in Las Vegas, NV, in the Players Era Festival. Tip-off is set for approximately 6 p.m. ET on TNT.
Houston is favored by -3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. The total is set at 134.5 points.
Here’s my Tennessee vs. Houston prediction and college basketball picks for November 25, 2025.
Tennessee vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: Under 134.5 (Play to 132)
My Tennessee vs Houston best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Tennessee vs. Houston Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 134.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 134.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
- Tennessee vs Houston spread: Houston -3
- Tennessee vs Houston over/under: 134.5 points
- Tennessee vs Houston moneyline: Tennessee +135, Houston -160
Tennessee vs Houston College Basketball Betting Preview
Tennessee Basketball
It’s a Tennessee Volunteer basketball team coached by Rick Barnes, so it should come as no surprise to you that the Vols are a top five defense in the country. That has been the case for each of the last five seasons as well, and Barnes’ track record on that end is unimpeachable.
This season's stingy unit is built from the inside out, with Felix Okpara serving as the anchor at the rim. He’s one of the best shot blockers in the country, and opponents are shooting a horrific 46.3% at the rim against Tennessee when he is on the court, per Hoop Explorer.
The Vols also have an excellent point of attack defender in Ja’Kobi Gillespie.
It also helps to have ridiculous positional size. Most of the Vols’ lineups feature either 6-foot-10 NBA prospect Nate Ament or 6-foot-9 athlete Cade Phillips on the wing, and it is not just Okpara inside.
Their interior depth – J.P. Estrella (who is back available after missing a game with injury), Jaylen Carey and DeWayne Brown II – gives Barnes limitless options in the paint.
The question marks around this Tennessee team come on offense. The Vols have yet to face a top 100 team, even after dismantling Rutgers on Monday, and they have had some iffy performances against lesser foes.
Gillespie is a fantastic triggerman on the ball, and Ament can get his shot off against anyone, but beyond that, the Vols are still figuring out their pecking order.
To their credit, the Vols easily handled their business against Rutgers in the Players Era opener. They were unstoppable for a stretch in the first half, scoring 40 points on their final 20 possessions before the break.
Houston is a different animal, but that was a strong performance against a power-conference foe.
Gillespie was brilliant, posting 32 points and four assists.
Houston Basketball
Assuming you read everything about Barnes and Tennessee’s defense, just mentally copy and paste it down here into the Houston section.
Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars are arguably the most consistent team in the country at this point, having finished top 13 nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings in eight straight seasons (top five for the last three years).
In fact, the Cougars have landed second overall in those rankings in an astounding four consecutive seasons.
This season's team brought back a stout core in Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp and JoJo Tugler, all of whom excel as individual defenders. Uzan is a long, switchable guard, while Sharp is a tough wing who can shoot and is wildly underrated as a stopper.
Tugler, for his part, is probably the best defender in the sport. The only thing that can hinder him on that end is foul trouble.
The Cougars’ offense has gotten off to a sluggish start this year, particularly against inferior buy game competition.
They have not made jump shots or gotten to the free throw line, but the most alarming trend might be on the offensive glass. Their offensive rebounding rate currently sits outside the top 40 nationally, which would mark the first ranking outside the top 11 since 2019.
That’s especially concerning since freshman guard Kingston Flemings has been such a revelation. The rookie five-star has quickly asserted himself despite playing alongside veterans in Sharp and Uzan, and his lightning quickness allows him to get in the rim at will.
The Cougars’ frontcourt simply must be better on offense. Tugler has been turnover-prone and bricky, while another five-star freshman, Chris Cenac Jr., is still getting acclimated to the college game. Kalifa Sakho has taken just two field goal attempts in 58 minutes.
Without any interior scoring, and for an offense that never gets to the charity stripe, Houston is vulnerable to droughts when jumpers are not going down.
Tennessee vs. Houston Betting Analysis
Houston was not as sharp as Tennessee in its Players’ Era opener. The Cougars also struggled to get by Auburn, and it’s easy to frame Houston’s start as something of a scuffle out of the gates.
With the Vols fully capable of suffocating a team still figuring out an offensive identity, that spells some concern for the favored Cougars.
That angle is amplified by the possibility of Sharp being limited. He went to the locker room with an apparent ankle injury against Syracuse on Monday, and even though he returned, he may not be at 100% after potential swelling overnight.
From a total perspective, the obvious reaction to the total is to expect a brutal rock fight, considering how impervious both defenses are. Each defensive unit is much further along than its offensive counterpart, and the combined physicality will be off the charts.
A risk to the under could be an endless stream of free throws, but considering Houston rarely gets to the charity stripe, that possibility is mitigated.
The analysis leads me to agree with the under angle. If Sharp is limited, that hampers a key offensive weapon for the Cougars, furthering the concerns with how either team scores.
It is somewhat difficult to properly handicap the compounding effect of these two defenses squaring off, but I would bet this down to 132.
My Pick: Under 134.5 (Play to 132)
