The USC Trojans take on the Saint Mary's Gaels in Thousand Palms, CA, as part of the Acrisure Classic. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on truTV.
Saint Mary's is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -200. The total is set at 141 points.
Here’s my USC vs. Saint Mary's predictions and college basketball picks for November 28, 2024.
USC vs Saint Mary's Prediction
My Pick: Saint Mary's -4.5
My USC vs Saint Mary's best bet is on the Gaels spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
USC vs Saint Mary's Odds, Spread, Pick
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 141 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 141 -110o / -110u | -200 |
- USC vs Saint Mary's spread: Saint Mary's -4.5
- USC vs Saint Mary's over/under: 141 points
- USC vs Saint Mary's moneyline: Saint Mary's -200, USC +165
- USC vs. Saint Mary's best bet: Saint Mary's -4.5
My USC vs Saint Mary's College Basketball Betting Preview
Eric Musselman is the portal pioneer. He's been building a roster through the portal before it was common. But a team with 10 transfers is pretty crazy, even for Muss.
Muss certainly has coached more talented teams, and the early returns indicate it will take time for the group to mesh.
The Trojans are just 1-5 ATS in six games, including a loss as a heavy favorite to Cal, a former conference rival.
So, why is USC struggling so far this year?
Two pivotal areas decide whether a team is good or not: Defense and shooting. USC is a nightmare in both areas.
The Trojans rank 126th in defensive efficiency and routinely get destroyed in pick-and-rolls due to Josh Cohen's lack of mobility. I don't know if the Gaels have the pieces to expose Cohen's defensive issues, but it hurts the Trojans.
As for the shooting problems, it's a byproduct of playing a pair of big guards who shoot below 30% from 3. Individually, I love Saint Thomas and Desmond Claude as players, though the fit is a bit messy together.
The fit would make sense if the Trojans surrounded them with wing shooters. But that's not the case. Chibuzo Agbo is a good shooter and leading scorer Terrence Williams II can stretch the floor, but that's it.
Teams can pack the paint and look to stop the guards from driving.
Saint Mary's Basketball
While Randy Bennett builds his Saint Mary's program around defense, his offense is carrying the load this year.
The Gaels rank 24th in offensive efficiency, Saint Mary's best since 2020. Conversely, Saint Mary's defense is also the worst it's been since 2020. That team earned a six-seed in the NCAA Tournament, so maybe the better offense is a good thing.
The first shot isn't always the best shot for Saint Mary's; it's the second shot. At 46%, the Gaels have the best offensive rebounding rate in college hoops.
Arizona transfer Paulius Murauskas and Mitchell Saxen combine for 16 rebounds per game. Murauskas is a nice fit with Saxen since he can score inside and out, while Saxen is a true post threat.
While foul troubles has halted Saxen's numbers, he tallied a double-double in Saint Mary's monumental win over Nebraska.
Bennett has trotted out a litany of stud point guards during his time in Moraga, but Augustas Marciulionis is right up there with Jordan Ford as the best. The reigning WCC POY, Marciulionis has improved dramatically, averaging more points and assists while shooting better from 3 than last year.
Aidan Mahaney appeared to be a big portal loss, but freshman Mikey Lewis is already as good as the current UConn guard. Lewis is certainly more talented and doesn't need the ball to score. He's a key cog in the Gaels' superb offensive attack, posting 13 points in 18 minutes a game off the bench.
My main concern about Saint Mary's is if they can contain big guards who want to drive. Marciulionis is 6-foot-4 (which is probably a bit generous), while Lewis and Jordan Ross are 6-foot-3.
Can the Gaels contain the 6-foot-6 Claude and 6-foot-7 Thomas? They must keep them away from the hoop, or it could be a problem for a struggling defense.
USC vs Saint Mary's Betting Analysis
Back the Gaels here.
This is a very good team and my faith in USC dwindles by the day.
