The Villanova Wildcats take on the Maryland Terrapins in Newark, NJ. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Maryland is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. The total is set at 138.5 points.
Here’s my Villanova vs Maryland predictions and college basketball picks for November 24, 2024.
Villanova vs Maryland Prediction
My Pick: Maryland -5.5 (play to 7)
My Villanova vs Maryland best bet is on Maryland -5.5, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Villanova vs Maryland Odds
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
- Villanova vs Maryland spread: Maryland -5.5 -105
- Villanova vs Maryland over/under: 138.5 points -110
- Villanova vs Maryland moneyline: Villanova +185, Maryland -225
- Villanova vs Maryland best bet: Maryland -5.5 (play to 7)
Spread
I'm on the Terps here
Moneyline
No play on the ML
Over/Under
I'll also pass on the total.
My Pick: Maryland -5.5 (play to 7)
Villanova vs. Maryland College Basketball Betting Preview
Villanova Basketball
Replicating Jay Wright's success wasn't a realistic expectation for Kyle Neptune, but his era has put the program in rough shape.
But Villanova looks like a shell of themselves in the Neptune era, missing the NCAA Tournament in two straight years, and missing a third straight tournament looks even more likely as the days pass.
The Wildcats have losses to St Joe's (who turned out to be quite good), Columbia and Virginia! Losing by double digits to Virginia is quite telling, considering Virginia's extreme struggles this week.
When Villanova was winning championships, it had great guards who rarely turned the ball over. That's far from the case now, as the Wildcats give the ball away 18% of the time. Turnovers are a total killer with their 279th-ranked adjusted tempo.
Outside of Eric Dixon, the Wildcats talent base needs more firepower to compete in the Big East. Dixon is one of the top players in the sport, leading the conference with 24.4 ppg. The only two others double-digit scorers are Wooga Poplar, who's shooting 43% from the field, and Jhamir Brickus, who struggles with turnovers.
Is the dominant 93-49 win over Penn enough to spark a jolt in Villanova? I don't see it. Sure, the Wildcats went 18-for-30 from 3, but the expectations have dipped to a point where destroying a team they should destroy looks like a positive. That should be the expectation.
Getting stops has also proven to be a trying task for Villanova, ranking 92nd in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Allowing 1.10 PPP to Virginia is an objectionable offense, so the Wildcats can make a bad offense look good.
Maryland Basketball
I would categorize Maryland's offense as "bad" but vastly improved from last year. The Terps enter this contest at 4-1, with the lone loss coming to Marquette. Conversely, each of the four wins is against Sub-250 ranked teams in KenPom.
So, what do we make of Kevin Willard's bunch? There are concerns in the shooting department. But at least Maryland is sacrificing shooting by playing Derik Queen and Julian Reese — a pair of dominant bigs.
Last season, the Terps rolled out a bunch of forwards next to Reese who weren't Big Ten caliber starters, so I'll call this an improvement. Reese and Queen combine for 27 ppg and 16 rpg while aiding the Terrapins in posting the 30th-best 2-point field goal percentage.
Willard had to replace guard Jahmir Young, and did so with Ja'Kobi Gillespie. The Belmont transfer is second on the team with 15 ppg and first in assists with three ppg while providing superb point-of-attack defense. The other two guards transfers, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel are the keys to Maryland's offensive success.
After sitting last year, Rice has developed nicely, scoring 10+ points in four of five games with a career-high 28 points. Meanwhile, Miguel is shooting a rough 5-for-20 from downtown after shooting 39% on 182 attempts at South Florida last year. He's the only "sharpshooter" on the roster, so getting Miguel right needs to be an emphasis.
As usual, defense is Coach Willard's calling card — Maryland sits 10th in KenPom's defensive efficiency. There isn't a weak point for the Terps defense. They force turnovers 25.2% of the time (eighth nationally) and hold opponents to 40% from 2 (14th nationally) and 27% from 3 (42nd nationally). Nothing will come easy against Maryland's stout defense.
Villanova vs Maryland Betting Analysis
KenPom has the spread as Maryland -4, but the official line is 5.5. I was willing to play to 7, so 5.5 falls in the criteria to back the Terrapins.
I can't find an appealing reason to back Villanova. Even when Dixon goes off, the Wildcats can still lose. I know that since it's happened multiple times already.
More on KenPom: He has the Wildcats at 61st nationally, and I remain skeptical of Villanova being a top-75, or even top-100 team considering it convincingly lost to No. 103 Virginia.
