The Army Black Knights (11-1, 8-0 AAC) take on the Navy Midshipmen (8-3, 6-2) on Saturday in one of college football's best traditions. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on CBS.
Army is fresh off a 35-14 dismantling of Tulane in the AAC Championship. The Black Knights have suffered only 1 loss on the season — a 49-14 defeat at the hands of Notre Dame.
Navy, meanwhile, had a hot start to the season of its own. The Midshipmen started the season 6-0 before falling to that same Notre Dame team, 51-14, before also falling 24-10 to Rice and 35-0 to Tulane.
Army enters as a -6 favorite with the over/under set at 39.5.
Let's dive into our Army vs. Navy picks and college football predictions for Saturday, Dec. 14.
Army vs. Navy Odds, Line, Spread
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6 -115 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6 -105 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
- Spread: Army -6, Navy +6
- Over/Under: 39.5 Total Points
- Moneyline: Army ML -250, Navy ML +205
By Pete Ruden
Army-Navy is special. One of college football's best traditions, this annual service academy showdown allows the college football world to stop and appreciate the pageantry and on-field schematics that make this sport special.
The same remains true this season.
Even though these programs have been playing each other for over a century, this game seems to be particularly exciting.
The Black Knights ran through their first season in the American Athletic Conference, taking home the conference title with a 35-14 shellacking of Tulane in the AAC title game a week ago.
Navy has also impressed this season, blazing out to a fast 6-0 start before settling at 8-3 when the regular season came to a close.
Gone are the triple-option offenses of the past. Instead, these units have evolved with Army running zone-read, man and fullback dives out of shotgun and pistol and Navy running a new hybrid triple-option Wing-T attack led by offensive coordinator Drew Cronic.
With a fun game in store, we polled nine members of our college football staff to get their takes on the spread and total while also throwing in a player prop for one of the game's stars.
Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Predictions, Picks, Best Bets
Army vs. Navy Spread Pick
Spread Pick: Army -6
Our staff is backing the Black Knights.
Typically, you should always back the underdog in a battle between two service academies. But this year is anything but typical.
Army is your 2024 AAC champion.
Bryson Daily generated plenty of hype for his 1,480 rushing yards combined with his explosive play-action passing ability.
The Knights ranked eighth nationally in EPA per Rush and second in EPA per Dropback, while Daily accounted for 37 total touchdowns.
While Blake Horvath and the Midshipmen were similarly explosive in their own right, they couldn’t touch the numbers that Army put up on a drive-by-drive, game-by-game basis.
These two aren’t running the same old triple-option scheme anymore. Army runs more zone-read, man and fullback dive concepts, often running out of the pistol or gun.
Meanwhile, Navy is running a hybrid triple-option Wing-T attack — a rush-heavy attack far more explosive than any service academy has shown.
So, Army-Navy will no longer be a low-scoring, grind-it-out battle between two offensive systems that the opposing defenses know how to stop.
This game should feature dynamic rush concepts and deep play-action passes. Not to mention plenty of scoring, given both offenses rank in the top 25 nationally in Finishing Drives.
An explosive, higher-scoring match favors the team laying points, especially when that team is the far better offensive squad. That’s one reason why we’re backing the Knights.
Another reason is that the Knights match up well with Navy’s defense.
Army loves to run off-tackle using outside zone and man concepts, and the Midshipmen have struggled to set the edge on the outside, allowing a 15% explosive play rate against those sets. Keep an eye on Kanye Udoh on those rushes.
We also have a direct common opponent we can use to compare these squads. Three weeks ago, Tulane went to Annapolis and blew out Navy, winning 35-0. Last week, Army obliterated Tulane in West Point, winning 35-14.
That’s a pretty convincing argument for the Black Knights.
Army vs. Navy Over/Under Pick
Over 39.5 | 6 Picks |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 39.5 | 3 Picks |
Over/Under Pick: Over 39.5
For many of the same reasons our staff is laying the points with Army, we’re also taking the over.
For what it’s worth, our own Collin Wilson projects the total closer to 48, providing us plenty of value on over 40 or better.
While Army’s outside-tackle concepts should expose a Navy defense that’s weak on the edge, the Midshipmen can also exploit Army’s defense via the same route — the Black Knights struggle to defend outside zone concepts, allowing a 20% explosive play rate on those sets.
Or, if we want to be less technical, let’s simply talk about how weak both rush defenses are.
Navy ranks 100th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and 82nd in EPA per Rush allowed. Army ranks 109th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 86th in EPA per Rush allowed.
How will either stop an opposing offense that ranks in the top 25 in Havoc allowed?
Both front sevens are as weak as they’ve been in years, and both offensive attacks have been tweaked to provide maximum explosiveness. Do we really believe we’ll get another 17-10 final score in this matchup?
Both offenses should twist the opposing defense into a pretzel, moving the chains consistently and capitalizing once they’re in scoring position. Again, both offenses rank in the top 25 nationally in Finishing Drives. Both offenses also rank in the top five in red-zone touchdown rate.
My final prediction: Army wins 35-27.
Army vs. Navy Player Props
Bryson Daily Over 201.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (Play to 205)
By Alex Hinton
Army quarterback Bryson Daily enters this rivalry matchup as the nation’s ninth-leading rusher with 1,480 yards and 29 touchdowns. He scores so often that he's -460 to find the end zone this week.
So, I'm going to try and get a bit more value out of his yards.
Daily has run for 100 yards in each of his last 10 games. In eight of those games, he has run for 125 yards. While I like Daily’s chances to run for 100 yards once again, Navy is one of the teams that's most equipped to defend the triple-option.
However, with Daily under center, the Black Knights have thrown the ball more than we're typically used to seeing from an Army team.
After throwing for 913 yards last season, Daily has 877 passing yards this season while averaging 11.2 yards per attempt.
With 123 passing yards, Daily will join Kelvin Hopkins as the second Army quarterback to have 1,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards. If he throws for 100 yards in this matchup, there's a strong chance he clears this line with his proficiency on the ground.
He has cleared this line in six of his past nine games, and I like that trend to continue in this spot.
