Happy New Year's Eve, college football bettors.
Let's end 2025 with a bang.
Our staff of college football experts has been grinding, coming through with five best bets for NYE's slate, starting at Noon and ending with a much-anticipated CFP quarterfinal matchup.
Read on for our College Football Best Bets and NCAAF Picks for Wednesday, Dec. 31.
College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
 | All Day | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Pick
After all the Heisman shenanigans, how much is Diego Pavia going to be fired up to play against Iowa in a meaningless bowl game?
He is also going to be missing his top wide receiver, and he has to face an Iowa team that relies on playing solid defense and limiting big plays.
Vanderbilt led the nation in yards per play this season, but it won't get those chunk plays against Iowa.
This game is going to be ugly, and that plays into Iowa's hands.
I'm not sure if they win outright, but I like the Hawkeyes' chances of making this game come down to the wire.
Pick: Iowa +5 or Better
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Michigan vs. Texas Pick
By RoadToCFB
We’ve seen it as recently as Saturday: intermediate bowl games between Power Conference programs with sweeping opt-outs breed Unders.
Texas will be without seven of its top 11 defenders, its top three running backs, and its defensive coordinator.
Top talents Anthony Hill, Trey Moore, and Michael Taaffe all will sit this game out, while up to three offensive linemen (Trevor Goosby, DJ Campbell, and Connor Stroh) may follow suit.
On the other sideline, Michigan will be under interim management following the dismissal of Sheronne Moore and without offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey, who leaves for the same job at Missouri.
Key defensive pieces, Derrick Moore and Jaishawn Barham, both opted out of the game, and up to 10 more could sit, though reports suggest Michigan will be more intact than expected.
Even before these absences, neither team put together a face-melting offense.
Michigan failed to score more than 22 points in three of its final four games and stalled against better defenses, including Oklahoma (13 points), Wisconsin (24), and even USC (13).
The Wolverines ran 62 plays per game (102nd nationally) at 27.5 seconds per play (90th). While its numbers were fairly efficient — Michigan’s offense ranks 26th nationally in quality drive rate and 28th in Success Rate — the tempo played didn’t front enough points against upper-tier defenses.
The Longhorns are in a similar situation.
They ran just 63 plays per game (100th) at 25.7 seconds per play (55th), but were much less efficient. Texas ranked 92nd in Success Rate and, when the ball was thrust into quarterback Arch Manning’s hand, 30th in Passing Success Rate (just 39.8%).
While Texas found itself in some shootouts (Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State), it was also prone to being dragged down into rock fights (Kentucky, Oklahoma). Better defenses like Georgia and Ohio State were able to apply the brakes.
So we have middling-paced offenses against better (if not intact) defenses in a game with sweeping opt-outs.
Pick: Under 48 or Better
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Nebraska vs. Utah Pick
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
In college football, teams that averaged extremely high point totals during the year are often overvalued during bowl season.
Their offensive numbers can be inflated by favorable regular-season matchups, home-field comfort, or conference styles that differ from their bowl opponent’s defensive strengths.
In the postseason, extended preparation allows opposing coaches to design specific schemes to slow these explosive attacks.
Neutral sites, unfamiliar environments, and stronger opponents often lead to performances that fall short of expectations, making these high-scoring teams vulnerable to the spread.
Pick: Nebraska +14 or Better
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Miami vs. Ohio State Pick
There's no expectation that Miami will generate any explosive plays against the Ohio State defense.
The Hurricanes are near dead last in Rush EPA and 71st in Pass EPA, heading straight into a Buckeyes defense that's top-five nationally in limiting chunk yardage.
Success on first down will be crucial for Miami, leading to the use of the run concept with Mark Fletcher. Miami runs a high rate of inside zone plays, pivoting between single- and double-tight end sets.
The secondary run concept is man blocking, as both run tendencies have a high 64% Success Rate.
Ohio State has ended offenses running inside zone and man-blocking concepts. The Buckeyes support a Success Rate of 56% or better against man blocking concepts without giving up a single explosive play the entire season.
The expectations for Ryan Day's offense are similar to those of the playoff run a season ago: Get the ball into their receivers' hands with tempo. Ohio State has been a slug this season, averaging one of the slowest paces nationally at 31.8 seconds per play.
The Buckeyes have two glaring issues against the Miami defense.
First is a pass rush that will test the offensive tackle position. Left tackle Austin Siereveld ranks as a top-20 individual pass blocker, but right tackle Phillip Daniels sits outside the top 100. Miami edge Akheem Mesidor will get the assignment to put pressure on Sayin.
The second issue is a lack of a consistent run game, with Bo Jackson using zone-read and counter concepts. Miami dominates both inside and outside zone, particularly when teams go lighter in the box, as expected with Ohio State.
Opponents using counter have had no success against a Hurricanes stop unit with a 63% Success Rate against the concept.
The Cotton Bowl quarterfinal is expected to be a low-scoring affair.
Ohio State will find little success on the ground before facing an intense pass rush in late downs. The Buckeyes' 68th rank in Stuff Rate will play a role in short third- and fourth-down attempts.
Conversely, Miami has failed to create explosive plays the entire season.
With both offenses in a presumed rock fight, special teams could be the deciding factor. Miami ranks 12th in Special Teams SP+ compared to Ohio State's rank of 63rd. The Hurricanes excel among the top teams in punt and kickoff efficiency — field position could be an advantage for head coach Mario Cristobal.
Action Network projects the spread under a touchdown, giving value to Miami in the current market.
A sinking total has been expected with the lack of offense. With such low scoring expected, the team with the better pass rush and special teams should do enough to shake up the College Football Playoff.
Pick: Miami +9 or Better
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Miami vs. Ohio State Pick
By Doug Ziefel
Lastly, we switch sides and focus on the Buckeyes' passing attack.
When you look at the Buckeyes, it's clear that Jeremiah Smith must be contained, and doing so will be much easier said than done for the Miami secondary.
However, we can safely assume they will roll coverage to contain Smith, which should open up opportunities for other reliable targets, such as tight end Max Klare.
Klare was one of the reasons quarterback Julian Sayin led the nation in completion percentage. He hauled in 79% of his 4.2 targets per game.
The trust between the two has been evident down the stretch, as Klare has seen at least five targets in seven of the past 10 games.
If he sees five targets again, his history says he'll haul in four of them, which gives us plenty of value on his current reception line.
Pick: Max Klare Over 2.5 Receptions
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Stuckey's Full Action App Card
Need more picks for Saturday's action? It's always wise to see what our guy Stuckey is betting on!
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the Action Network App to track all your bets and follow all your favorite experts.
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