We are officially firmly in the middle of bowl season.
Wednesday's college football slate features two bowl games: Western Kentucky vs. James Madison in the Boca Raton Bowl and Cal vs. UNLV in the L.A. Bowl.
Our college football writers broke down both games from a betting perspective and came through with a pick for each. So, whether you prefer betting sides or totals, we have you covered.
Let's dive into our college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the Boca Raton Bowl and L.A. Bowl on Wednesday, Dec. 18.
College Football Picks for Wednesday
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Wednesday's slate of NCAAF bowl games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 5:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison Pick
By Joshua Nunn
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5, 6-2 Conference USA) and James Madison Dukes (8-4, 4-4 Sun Belt) square off in the Boca Raton Bowl on Wednesday, Dec. 18th. Kickoff is set for 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
There has been significant market variance in this one, as James Madison opened as a 6.5-point favorite and quickly rose to -9.5 after news broke about key Western Kentucky starters opting out.
However, this marks the third year in a row this situation has played out for WKU, and once again, it appears that all of the Hilltoppers' key contributors who have entered the transfer portal will play in this game.
The line has dropped back down accordingly, as James Madison enters as a -7 favorite with an over/under of 51.
Both of these teams are coming off down points in their seasons and will be looking for a rebound to carry momentum into the offseason.
Let's dive into my Western Kentucky vs. James Madison predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Dec. 18.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky won its final regular-season game of the season over Jacksonville State to secure a spot in the Conference USA Championship, setting up a rematch between the Hilltoppers and Gamecocks.
The rematch was vastly different from the first matchup, as WKU struggled mightily to move the ball while putting up an extremely lackluster defensive effort.
The run defense gave up 386 yards on 6.9 yards per carry and was consistently caught out of position most of the night — a recurring theme over the last five weeks of the regular season.
Action Network's Stuckey has reported in his 2024 college football bowl opt-outs and transfer portal tracker that WKU has 21 players who have entered the transfer portal.
However, more than any other team in America, the Tops have proven over the years that just because players have entered the portal, it doesn't necessarily reflect their participation status for the bowl game. In fact, starting quarterback Caden Veltkamp has already been confirmed to play after entering the portal.
The concern will be how many other starters and key contributors will play. That participation report will be exceptionally critical for the defensive side of the ball.
James Madison Dukes
James Madison put together a solid season in Year 1 under head coach Bob Chesney. The Dukes opened up 4-0 in nonconference action, capped off by putting up 70 points against North Carolina in Chapel Hill in September.
At times, we saw this team look as impressive as any in the Sun Belt, but we also saw puzzling road losses at ULM and Georgia Southern. This team ran out of steam late in the year, culminating with a complete second-half collapse against Marshall in a double-overtime loss.
JMU quarterback Alonza Barnett proved to be electric when he was on his “A” game, throwing for 26 touchdowns to just four interceptions while adding seven rushing scores.
He was hurt late in the year and will miss this bowl game due to injury.
With Barnett out, the Dukes will have to take advantage of their edge on the ground against a weak and worn-down Western Kentucky run defense.
Luckily for James Madison, it can hang its hat on the ground game in this matchup, as running backs George Pettaway and Wayne Knight are explosive and consistently hit the hole hard. Both backs average six yards per carry.
With an unproven quarterback leading the charge, I would expect a run-heavy game plan that attacks Western Kentucky where its biggest weakness is.
Western Kentucky grades out poorly in most defensive rush metrics, including EPA Per Rush allowed (123rd) and Rush Success Rate allowed (111th).
Even when playing meaningful football squarely in the Conference USA Championship race, the Hilltoppers couldn't stop the run down the stretch with any regularity. Over its last five games, WKU surrendered 314 yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry.
It was extremely concerning to see the lack of effort by the Tops in the Conference USA Championship game, I could really see this defense struggling again in Boca Raton.
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison Prediction
There are so many variables in this matchup, and this is a great example of why it can be important to wait until players are confirmed in or out for their bowl games. With how things are currently set up, I like James Madison -6.5.
While Veltkamp will play this matchup, numerous offensive starters have not confirmed their playing status. Not having a full platoon available would set back an already struggling offense.
WKU has averaged only 15 points per game and 310 yards per game over its last four contests, and the Toppers have really struggled to run the rock. In fact, they've averaged just 91 yards and 3.3 yards per carry over that stretch.
James Madison graded out 14th nationally in Success Rate allowed, and the Dukes have been excellent in early downs. JMU ranks 11th nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 42nd in EPA Per Rush allowed, so there's really no clear path for WKU on the ground here.
The Tops will likely be forced to throw the ball a ton here — something we're used to seeing from a Western Kentucky offense but not something we've seen a lot of this year.
Pass coverage has been a strength for JMU this season. The Dukes sit 30th nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed and 31st in EPA Per Pass allowed.
The secondary has secured 17 interceptions and 45 pass breakups on the season, and lockdown coverage has helped the defensive line get home against opposing quarterbacks.
Look for JMU to shut down this WKU passing attack and force too many negative plays for the Tops to consistently sustain drives.
Pick: James Madison -7 or Better
| |
Cal vs. UNLV Pick
By John Feltman
It's the LA Bowl hosted by Rob Gronkowski, and we've got an intriguing matchup between a couple of West Coast teams. The UNLV Rebels (10-3, 6-1 Mountain West) will take on the Cal Golden Bears (6-6, 2-6 ACC) with many opt-outs and uncertainties worth monitoring before kickoff on Wednesday, Dec. 18.
Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
With so many question marks, be sure to check out Stuckey's article containing all potential opt-out/injury news for each bowl game. He updates it multiple times a day, making it an absolute must-read resource if you plan on betting on bowl matchups.
Currently, oddsmakers have UNLV as a -3 favorite with the over/under set at 48.
Let's dive into my Cal vs. UNLV predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Dec. 18.
Cal Golden Bears
The biggest news for the Golden Bears is that starting quarterback Fernando Mendoza is entering the portal, so he will not be under center. QB Chandler Rogers is recovering from an injury, so CJ Harris or freshman EJ Caminong may get the start.
From what head coach Justin Wilcox has told reporters, we could see a heavy dosage of Caminong, which would significantly downgrade the Cal offense. We'll see a heavy dose of run plays on offense, which is the strength of the Rebels defense.
Not only are the Bears shorthanded at quarterback, but they'll also need leading wide receiver Nyziah Hunter, who entered the transfer portal. I can't imagine they'll throw the ball very often here.
Offensive lineman Matthew Wykoff isn't playing either, which is detrimental to the Bears' running game. The offense is in rough shape, and given the Rebels' market line movement on Tuesday afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see them with a lot more starters playing than many thought.
Defensively, the Cal defense was underrated throughout the season. It had some poor showings against Syracuse and Stanford down the stretch, but its defensive metrics suggest that it's a much better unit than people perceive.
The Golden Bears were excellent at preventing rush explosives, and they were a supreme unit at creating long average third-down distances for opposing offenses.
We should see a strong defensive effort and a more inspired effort from the defense after a couple of weeks off.
UNLV Rebels
The Rebels had a terrific season in Las Vegas, but they unfortunately ran out of gas before the Mountain West Championship game. They had a chance to spoil Boise State's season and potentially earn a College Football Playoff berth, but that's the least of their worries heading into the bowl game.
First and foremost, head coach Barry Odom departed for Purdue, and Dan Mullen will take over next season but won't coach in the bowl game. It's also worth noting that offensive coordinator Brennan Marion — the inventor of the Go-Go offense — won't coach in this game after he was passed over for the head-coaching position.
There's a significant portal and opt-out news worth monitoring, especially for star wide receiver Ricky White III. White is easily the best offensive player besides QB Hajj-Malik Williams, so he's a significant question mark heading into the matchup.
Starting cornerback Tony Grimes will play despite entering the portal, which is huge for the defense. However, potential NFL Draft pick Jalen Catalon is likely to opt out, which would impact the secondary. However, that hasn't been announced as of writing.
Even though Odom is no longer the head coach, there are rarely fewer opt-outs and transfer portal players. This could be an opportunity for players who plan on returning to showcase what they've got for Mullen.
The problem is that I can't back the Rebels without knowing if White's playing. He's a massive part of the offense, and UNLV is significantly worse without him.
The Rebels offense thrived on explosive plays on the ground and through the air during the season. However, the Bears do a great job of limiting rush explosives, and without White, I could see the Rebels lacking any air offense.
With coaching changes and some key players not playing, it's best to stay away from a side. Given the strengths of the Bears defense, the Rebels offense will struggle to score.
Cal vs. UNLV Prediction
I love the under in this spot. Given the uncertainty surrounding opt-out and transfer portal moves, it's an excellent opportunity to sell both offenses.
Both defenses may be at less than 100% full strength, but their strengths should be able to contain what both offenses will do.
White hasn't been specific about playing for the Rebels, and with all of the changes on the coaching staff, we could see a completely different offensive scheme.
I expect both teams to focus on their run games, especially with Mendoza out of the picture for the Bears.
I don't expect a lot of fireworks, and the Bears will struggle to move the ball. We should see them slowing the game down with their freshman quarterback, which will limit the number of offensive possessions in the game.
Pick: Under 48 (Play to 45.5)
