The Maryland Terrapins (4-7, 1-7 Big Ten) head to Happy Valley on Saturday to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (10-1, 7-1) in a Big Ten "rivalry" at 3:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Try and try as the Big Ten might, but Maryland vs. Penn State is not a rivalry. Rivalries require competition, and with Penn State winning 43 of the 47 all-time meetings between these two programs, there's no real competition.
Maryland head coach Mike Locksley isn’t on the hot seat just yet, but it has to start feeling warm in 2025. The Terps will miss a bowl game for the first time since 2020 and have just a single conference win this year.
The irony of all ironies for Penn State is that the Nittany Lions were supposed to be the biggest beneficiaries of the 12-team playoff. A win over Maryland, however, and they likely finish inside the top four, not in need of the expanded field.
Penn State has won the last three iterations of the matchup by an average margin of 27.6 points. Can it win by that much again and cover the large spread?
The Nittany Lions enter as -24.5 favorites with an over/under of 50.
Continue reading for my Maryland vs. Penn State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 29.
Maryland Terrapins vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction, Picks
- Maryland vs. Penn State Pick: Penn State -24.5
My Penn State vs. Maryland best bet is on the Nittany Lions to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Maryland vs. Penn State Odds, Line, Spread
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+25.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | +1500 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-25.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | -5000 |
- Maryland vs. Penn State Spread: Penn State -25.5, Maryland +25.5
- Maryland vs. Penn State Over/Under: 50.5
- Maryland vs. Penn State Moneyline: Penn State ML -5000, Maryland ML +1500
Maryland vs. Penn State NCAAF Week 14 Preview
Maryland Terrapins Betting Preview: Rock Bottom?
It certainly feels like a low point for Maryland in the Locksley era.
The fourth-year coach’s program is about to finish with its fewest wins in a non-COVID season since his first year, and the Terps have been outclassed in most Big Ten games, with six of their seven conference losses coming by margins of multiple scores.
A potential saving grace could come from the 2025 quarterback recruiting class, but quarterback play actually hasn’t been the biggest issue for Maryland.
The Terrapins lead the Big Ten in passing with 289.6 yards per game and have a talented receiver tandem in Tai Felton and Kaden Prather.
Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. left Maryland’s last game with a hand injury, but I expect him to start against Penn State.
Where Maryland has struggled more on offense is running the ball. The Terrapins rush at one of the lowest frequencies in the country, but even when they do, it’s far from efficient.
Roman Hemby is Maryland’s leading rusher with 543 yards on an offense that is 106th in Rush Success Rate and will be facing one of the best run defenses in the country.
Maryland’s biggest issue, however, has been its defense. The Terps are 16th in the Big Ten in total defense and 17th in scoring defense.
Of particular concern against Penn State is the state of Maryland’s run defense. The Terrapins have given up at least 180 yards rushing in two of their last three games, including getting gashed for 268 yards last week against Iowa.
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview: Path to the Playoff
It’s all but a lock at this point that James Franklin and Penn State will finally qualify for the College Football Playoff. And if they could sign off on their current path of a home game against Indiana, followed by a matchup with Miami in the next round, they would do so in a heartbeat.
Key to Penn State’s success this season has been its retooled offense under offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.
While it verges on being a little too cute for its own good at times, the offense prominently features one of the conference’s best one-two punches at the running back position.
Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen both have over 600 yards rushing for a Penn State offense that is second in the Big Ten in rushing.
The added wrinkle of do-everything-man Tyler Warren and the legs of Drew Allar make Penn State’s running game even more challenging to stop.
Allar has improved in his second season as the starter, but outside of consistently throwing to Warren, there's still a lack of a certified stud at the receiver position for Penn State. Harrison Wallace’s 35 catches lead the way for Penn State, which ranks him 32nd in the Big Ten among all players.
Penn State’s defense hasn’t been quite as dominant as years past, but it’s still one of the best in the country. Abdul Carter leads a nasty front seven that is top 10 in Line Yards allowed and Havoc.
When the Penn State defense does have issues, it’s with its secondary.
The Nittany Lions have given up 30 pass plays of at least 30 yards in length, a number that puts them in the bottom half of the conference and could be an area Maryland looks to exploit with its pass-heavy offense.
Penn State vs. Maryland Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Penn State and Maryland match up statistically:
Maryland Offense vs. Penn State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 106 | 15 | |
| Line Yards | 99 | 2 | |
| Pass Success | 62 | 23 | |
| Havoc | 44 | 9 | |
| Finishing Drives | 93 | 12 | |
| Quality Drives | 78 | 23 | |
Penn State Offense vs. Maryland Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 13 | 50 | |
| Line Yards | 17 | 26 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 111 | |
| Havoc | 4 | 113 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 111 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 96 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 57 | 64 |
| PFF Coverage | 106 | 37 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 89 | 82 |
| Middle 8 | 82 | 11 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.8 (21) | 28.9 (110) |
| Rush Rate | 42% (124) | 58% (26) |
How to Bet My Maryland vs. Penn State Pick
While this game isn’t a rivalry, Franklin gives no second thoughts to running up the score on Maryland when he can. Franklin is 8-2 in his tenure at Penn State against Maryland, and in his wins, Penn State averages 43.0 points with a winning margin of 33.1.
The Maryland defense recently struggled against Iowa's ground game, so I expect Penn State to dial up a similar game plan and run right through the heart of the Terrapin defense.
With only a very small chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship, I’m not too worried about Penn State pulling its starters significantly early in a potential blowout.
The Terrapins have nothing left to play for, while the Nittany Lions are seeking extra style points to stay ahead of Notre Dame in the rankings. It’s a big spread, but one I think Penn State can cover.
Pick: Penn State -24.5 (Play to -26.5)
Maryland vs. Penn State Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
Maryland makes the trip to Happy Valley on Saturday, Nov. 30 to take on Penn State at 3:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Maryland vs. Penn State Betting Trends
Maryland vs. Penn State Weather
