The UMass Minutemen take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City, Iowa, on Saturday, Sept. 13. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network.
Iowa is favored by 35 points on the spread, while UMass comes in at +5000 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The total is set at 42.5 points.
Iowa comes in at 1-1 after toppling Albany in Week 1 and falling to Iowa State in a tough 16-13 loss in Week 2. UMass, meanwhile, sits at 0-2 after falling to Temple, 42-10, and Bryant, 27-26, for the Bulldogs' first-ever win over an FBS program.
This marks the first time these two teams have ever played each other.
Here’s our UMass vs. Iowa prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 13.
UMass vs Iowa Prediction
- UMass vs. Iowa Pick: Over 42.5
My Iowa vs. UMass best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UMass vs Iowa Odds
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+35 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +5000 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-35 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | N/A |
- UMass vs Iowa Spread: Iowa -35, UMass +35
- UMass vs Iowa Over/Under: 42.5 Points
- UMass vs Iowa Moneyline: UMass +5000
UMass vs Iowa College Football Betting Preview
Iowa enters Week 3 after a heartbreaking 16-13 loss to in-state rival Iowa State.
The Hawkeyes moved the ball well at times and racked up 131 yards rushing, but the passing game sputtered once again.
Quarterback Mark Gronowski completed 13 of his 24 passes for 83 yards and an interception. That performance gives him 127 yards on the season — the fewest through two games for any Big Ten quarterback with at least 35 attempts since 1995.
The Hawkeyes defense bowed up when it needed to, but it wasn't enough to keep the Cyclones from keeping the Cy-Hawk Trophy in Ames for another year.
Luckily for Iowa, it has UMass on deck this week.
The Minutemen have been an absolute mess this season, coming into the game with an 0-2 record after a 42-10 loss to Temple in the season opener and a 27-26 loss to Bryant in Week 2 for the Bulldogs' first victory over an FBS team in program history.
New head coach Joe Harasymiak could not have pictured a worse start.
Quarterbacks Brandon Rose and Grant Jordan have yet to throw a touchdown while tossing a pick apiece, and the team has averaged just 3.6 yards per carry against what has been a weak schedule thus far.
To make matters worse, Rose got hurt against Bryant and was seen in a sling on the sidelines. With his status in doubt, it will likely be Jordan taking over under center on Saturday.
UMass vs Iowa Pick, Betting Analysis
Saturday's UMass vs. Iowa matchup fits a historically profitable system from our Bet Labs database.
Called "Unfamiliar Blowout Overs," this system identifies high-scoring potential in nonconference games where mismatches often lead to an inflated scoreboard.
When the home team is heavily favored by more than 30 points during the regular season, the talent gap is wide enough that scoring can come quickly and often.
Nonconference opponents are less familiar with each other’s schemes, which reduces defensive preparation and increases the likelihood of big plays.
By focusing on games where the closing total is below 60, the system finds situations where expectations are modest despite the conditions that favor the offense.
In these contests, the stronger team can pile on points, while the underdog often contributes through late scoring in garbage time, pushing results over the total more often than anticipated.
This system has an all-time record of 264-169-8, good for a win percentage of 61% and an ROI of 16%. It has also gone 8-4 (67%) this season for an ROI of 27%.
Pick: Over 42.5
