USC vs UCLA Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday, November 23

Get set for the 92nd edition of the Crosstown Showdown as the USC Trojans (5-5) take on the UCLA Bruins (4-6).

Historically, USC has owned the rivalry with a record of 50-34-7, but the Bruins will bring the Victory Bell as they won last year's meeting, 38-20.

While the Bruins come into this matchup with the latest bragging rights, they lack momentum overall. Last week, the Washington Huskies snapped their three-game win streak.

The same can not be said for the Trojans, who picked up a big win over Nebraska last week and did so with a new quarterback under center.

Can the Trojans keep rolling and take the Victory Bell back to Pasadena? USC is a 4.5-point favorite on the spread with a 51.5-point over/under.

Let's look at this matchup, my USC vs UCLA predictions, and college football picks.

USC vs UCLA Prediction

• USC vs UCLA Pick: USC -4.5

My USC vs UCLA best bet is on the Trojans to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Saturday, Nov. 23

10:30 p.m. ET

NBC

USC Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-4.5 -110	51.5 -110 / -110	-185

UCLA Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+4.5 -110	51.5 -110 / -110	+155

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• USC vs UCLA Point Spread: USC -4.5 (-110) · UCLA +4.5 (-110)
• USC vs UCLA Total: Over/Under 51.5
• USC vs UCLA Moneyline: USC -185 · UCLA +155

USC vs UCLA Preview

USC Trojans Betting Preview

Last week, I faded the USC Trojans because I needed Jayden Maiava to prove he is capable of passing against Big 10 competition.

Well, his performance has made me a believer.

Maiava can command this offense. Last week, he completed 71% of his passes, threw three touchdowns, and ran for one more. His mobility and apparent growth as a passer will give this UCLA defense loads of trouble.

The Bruins have been consistently attacked through the air this season. They rank 116th in opponent completion percentage and 68th in yards per pass allowed.

However, the Trojans have another big edge they can exploit offensively.

USC will win the battle in the trenches. They rank in the top 10 nationally in Offensive Line Yards and Sack Rate allowed. Maiava will have time in the pocket, and Woody Marks will have holes to run through.

Marks has been awesome behind USC's offensive line, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. The Bruins have not been tested on the ground much, and we could see them be overwhelmed defensively in this matchup.

UCLA Bruins Betting Preview

The UCLA Bruins have a different profile from the Trojans.

The Bruins have struggled mightily at times this season, ranking 119th in points per game and 116th in yards per game.

The main reason why is that their offensive line has been pushed around. UCLA ranks 131st nationally in Line Yards, and that non-existent push has forced them to abandon the run game.

That means this game will be on the arm of quarterback Ethan Garbers. Garbers is talented and ranks 24th among FBS quarterbacks in completion percentage and 73rd in yards per pass, but it has not led to points on the board.

Garbers and company will contend with a USC secondary much better than their rank of 127th nationally in opponent completion percentage. USC also ranks 40th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 42nd in PFF's Coverage grades.

Lastly, the Trojans rank 24th in opponent third-down conversion rate, so if Garbers can't push the ball down the field, the Bruins' offense will likely stall out.

USC vs UCLA

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USC and UCLA match up statistically:

USC Offense vs. UCLA Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	9	91
Line Yards	8	56
Pass Success	24	97
Havoc	43	55
Finishing Drives	43	129
Quality Drives	35	114

UCLA Offense vs. USC Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	129	66
Line Yards	131	73
Pass Success	56	40
Havoc	99	81
Finishing Drives	127	62
Quality Drives	42	59

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	13	63
PFF Coverage	42	66
Special Teams SP+	58	73
Middle 8	57	17
Seconds per Play	26.8 (59)	30.1 (125)
Rush Rate	40% (123)	46% (120)

USC vs UCLA Pick & Prediction

This spread opened up at a historically dead number of five. It has been bet down to 4.5 in favor of the Bruins, but it has held since then.

I doubt we see this spread approach three as USC is the clear better side. The Trojans have a far more dynamic offense and should not have much trouble with the Bruins' offense.

Back the Trojans to cover and take back control of the Victory Bell.

Pick: USC -4.5 (Play to -6)

USC vs UCLA will be played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 10:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on NBC.