College Football Picks for Wednesday, November 6
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Day 2 of MACtion is upon us.
Wednesday night's college football slate features two games in the MAC: the Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Western Michigan Broncos and Ohio Bobcats vs. Kent State Golden Flashes.
Our college football writers broke down both matchups in their full betting previews below, and each one contains a pick.
So, let's dive into our Wednesday college football predictions for tonight's MACtion.
Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan Pick: Can Broncos Win Outright?
By Joshua Nunn
MACtion rolls on with even more Wednesday night college football action.
The Northern Illinois Huskies (4-4, 1-3 MAC) travel to take on the Western Michigan Broncos (5-3, 4-0) on Wednesday, Nov. 6. The game kicks off at 7 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN2.
NIU comes into the game as a slight 2.5-point favorite in the contest with a total set at 52.5. So, where does the betting value lie for the MAC matchup?
Check out my Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Nov. 6.
Northern Illinois Huskies
Northern Illinois comes in off back-to-back conference losses against Toledo and Ball State, the latter coming in brutal fashion.
The Huskies took the lead with 15 seconds left on a 47-yard field goal by Kanon Woodill only to see Ball State go 39 yards the other way and drill a field goal of its own as time expired.
NIU could never seize control of the game, and inefficient offense created a major hole early for the Huskies.
Ultimately, it became a bad loss in a game they were heavy favorites and really needed to win.
The road win as 28-point underdogs at Notre Dame seems like eons ago for the Huskies, as NIU is just 1-3 in MAC play and buried several games back of the pack.
The NIU offense does have some statistical advantages against a WMU defense that has yielded some yards and points in recent weeks, but the Huskies offense hasn’t put together a completely dominant performance really since Week 1.
Western Michigan Broncos
Western Michigan sits atop the MAC standings at 4-0 in league play, although its four wins have come against arguably the four worst teams in the conference.
While the offense has found continuity behind solid quarterback play from former "G5 Hero of the Week” Hayden Wolff, the defense has allowed 400 yards in three of the last four weeks.
The Broncos are going to find out a lot about themselves in the next six days, as they have a showdown with Bowling Green on the road next Tuesday following this Wednesday night game against NIU.
Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan Prediction
I like Western Michigan to pick up the win at home and move one step closer to punching its ticket to the MAC title game.
WMU has won its first four conference games in emphatic fashion, and its offense is clicking at the right time. The Broncos have received excellent quarterback play from Wolff, and the run game has exploded three weeks in a row.
The Broncos are ranked 35th nationally in Offensive EPA Per Rush and 51st in Rushing Success Rate. The Broncos' ground game has gained strength as the season has progressed, with running back Jaden Nixon leading the way with 752 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.
Wolff is completing 68% of his passes with a 15:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He should find success here against a Huskies defense that has been exposed through the air.
NIU ranks just 113th nationally in Defensive EPA Per Pass allowed and 116th in Defensive Pass Down Explosiveness surrendered.
The Huskies defense can be beaten over the top, and we haven’t seen the worst of it, as Bowling Green and Toledo were without their starting quarterbacks when they played NIU.
NIU is averaging just 19 points per game against FBS competition and has very little explosiveness. The Huskies rank just 116th nationally in Offensive Passing Explosiveness and 120th in Rushing Explosiveness.
Running back Antario Brown is a great player with a ton of talent, but he has not broken out this year, averaging just 4.6 yards per carry with four touchdowns on the ground.
The NIU offense just seems broken right now, and it's a major concern that it couldn't work out of its offensive funk in conference play. I fear that the offense has reached its limit, and it won’t be enough here.
Western Michigan has done well to put itself in positions to be successful, evidenced by the fact that the Broncos have not trailed in the second half each of the last three weeks.
When NIU has to play from behind in the late stages of the second half, it hasn't found the big plays it needs
Everyone remembers Northern Illinois' win over Notre Dame, but the losses in conference play have been glaring indicators of how good this team really is.
Western Michigan has significantly more to play for here, as it'll be vying for the MAC title as long as it continues to win. I have no issues backing WMU on the money line here.
Pick: Western Michigan ML +105
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Ohio vs. Kent State Pick: Back the Bobcats
Perfection isn't something to be trifled with, and Kent State is flirting with perfection — or imperfection — in the win column.
The Golden Flashes (0-8, 0-4 MAC) have the distinguished honor of being the only winless team remaining in the FBS.
With Kennesaw State recording a shocking upset win over Liberty a couple of weeks ago, the title of "Worst Team in the Nation" now belongs to Kent State.
Ohio (5-3, 3-1), coming off its largest win of the season, is looking to avoid a disastrous upset. The Bobcats' 31-point victory over Buffalo keeps Tim Albin's side in the thick of the MAC race.
Ohio is a 3-score favorite to keep the Golden Flashes out of the win column, coming in at -19 with an over/under of 52.5. While the outright win may be all but a given, can Kent State at least make a game of this?
Let's dive into my Ohio vs. Kent State prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, Nov. 6.
Ohio Bobcats
Ohio may not be playing at quite the level it has over the past two seasons, but the Bobcats are still within striking distance of returning to the MAC Championship for the second time in three seasons.
Albin’s Bobcats are one of three MAC teams tied for second with one conference loss.
The key to the Bobs’ success this season has been their ground game. Ohio is fresh off a 258-yard, three-touchdown rushing performance against Buffalo where its leading rusher, Anthony Tyus, didn’t even play due to injury.
Tyus, whose 610 rushing yards are the second most in the MAC, might be out for the rest of the year, but the Bobcats still have the legs of quarterback Parker Navarro, who has rushed for at least 80 yards in three of Ohio’s past four games.
While the Ohio quarterback is a dangerous runner, he’s not as efficient of a passer. In fact, he’s thrown the same amount of touchdowns (seven) as interceptions.
Ohio ranks just 89th in Pass Success Rate and has thrown for more than 205 yards only once this season.
Defensively, Ohio’s front seven leads the way. Ohio is 37th and 34th in Rush Success Rate allowed and Line Yards allowed. The Bobcats notably held Akron to -18 rushing yards when they met a few weeks ago.
The Bobcats, however, can be had through the air. Ohio is 97th in Pass Success Rate allowed and just 80th in Coverage.
Kent State Golden Flashes
The good news is that it can’t get any worse, right?
After opening the year with one of the most difficult nonconference slates (Penn State, Tennessee and Pittsburgh), the Golden Flashes have at least made it to the easier conference portion of their schedule.
Playing two of the best defenses in the nation certainly doesn’t help, but Kent State’s offense has proven its inefficiencies — even in MAC play.
There have been lows, like recording just 66 yards against Penn State, and there have been highs (461 yards against Ball State), but water seems to have found its level in recent weeks.
The Golden Flashes have scored three touchdowns and averaged 227 yards of offense in their past two games and rank in the bottom five nationally in Pass Success Rate, Rush Success Rate, Quality Drives and Havoc allowed.
Kent State’s 18 offensive touchdowns are the eighth fewest in the country.
For as flawed as the offense is, Kent State’s defense may be even worse. The Golden Flashes are a full 5.1 points worse than the next closest scoring defense in the FBS (46.6 points per game allowed) and have allowed five 50-burgers this season.
Kent State allows a remarkable 541.9 yards per game and has failed to hold a single team below 400 yards of offense this season.
If there’s a positive, it’s that the Golden Flashes are only the second worst when it comes to yards allowed per play (7.2), outdone by fellow MAC team Ball State.
Ohio vs. Kent State Prediction
It’s no secret how poor Kent State is, but even Vegas has had a hard time putting a number on its struggles. Kent State is just 2-6 against the spread, with only one of those wins coming when it was a double-digit underdog.
Ohio is no juggernaut, but it just played one of its most complete games of the season, beating a quality Buffalo side by 31 points and tallying a season-high 489 yards of offense.
Initially, the opening total of this game (53.5) was interesting, but it’s been steamed down to 52. Kent State’s offense is putrid, but it can score against MAC defenses and has only been involved in one game this season that had fewer than 50 total points.
Ohio needs to win this to stay alive in the MAC, and with Eastern Michigan on deck, there’s no threat of a look-ahead spot for the Bobcats.
Pick: Ohio -19
