The Western Illinois Leathernecks take on the Northwestern Wildcats in Evanston, IL, on Friday, Sept. 5. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Northwestern is favored by 28.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -10000. Western Illinois, meanwhile, enters as a +2400 underdog to pull off the upset. The total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Western Illinois vs. Northwestern prediction and college football picks for Friday, September 5.
Western Illinois vs Northwestern Prediction
- Western Illinois vs. Northwestern Pick: Under 51.5
My Northwestern vs. Western Illinois best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Western Illinois vs Northwestern Odds
| Western Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+28.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +2400 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+28.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
- Western Illinois vs Northwestern Spread: Northwestern -28.5, Western Illinois +28.5
- Western Illinois vs Northwestern Over/Under: 51.5
- Western Illinois vs Northwestern Moneyline: Western Illinois +2400, Northwestern -10000
Western Illinois vs Northwestern College Football Betting Preview
Western Illinois Leathernecks Betting Preview: Positive Takeaways in Loss
Western Illinois comes in off a season-opening loss against Big Ten opponent Illinois last week.
The Leathernecks were severely outclassed in the game, which saw them surrender 52 points and 440 total yards against the Fighting Illini.
WIU did have success on its first drive of the game, racking up several first downs and also maintaining a 16-play drive in the fourth quarter.
Quarterback Chris Irvin completed 14-of-29 passes for 134 yards in the loss.
The Leathernecks were substantially overmatched in the trenches, as the rushing attack averaged just 1.1 yards per rush on 26 attempts.
Defensively, WIU provided some resistance to Illinois despite the lopsided score. The Illini recorded only three explosive plays, and the Leathernecks secured three sacks.
The game wasn’t competitive, but there were some positives to take away for WIU.
Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview: Coming Off Disappointing Loss
Northwestern comes in off a disappointing 23-3 loss to Tulane last week. The Wildcats really struggled offensively in the first half, with three turnovers and a first-quarter field goal.
Several drives stalled due to the inability to connect on deep shots, as quarterback Preston Stone never looked comfortable against the Green Wave's defensive front. Overall, Stone threw four interceptions and took three sacks.
The ground game also struggled to find its groove, recording just 76 yards on 2.8 yards per carry.
Defensively, Northwestern was puzzled by Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff, particularly when he found ways to create with his legs. Retzlaff ran for 113 yards on 10 carries and threw for 152 yards with two total touchdowns.
The Wildcat defense was really up against it after being put in bad spots thanks to untimely turnovers by the offense, but this unit played pretty well, all things considered.
Western Illinois vs Northwestern Pick, Betting Analysis
In this Friday night affair, I would look to the under.
Western Illinois is going to be significantly overmatched in this one yet again, and I don't see the Leathernecks having much offensive success against the Wildcats defense here.
WIU isn't equipped with the playmakers needed to stretch the field and stress the Northwestern secondary. We saw the Cats limit explosives against Tulane while allowing just two plays over 20 yards.
I don’t see WIU sustaining drives and converting on third down enough to get into the red zone frequently. I expect Northwestern to tackle better here and be in a better defensive position without having to worry about a mobile quarterback taking off with his legs.
Northwestern looked really choppy in the passing game last week. Stone and company are clearly still figuring out timing and rhythm with the passing attack.
It will look a little better here, but I fully expect the Cats to throttle this one down in the second half and salt this one away in a low-possession second half.
Northwestern wants to run the football, and we'll see that here. I expect Cam Porter and Joseph Himon to each receive 15 or more carries and for the second-half offense to look very vanilla.
Wildcats head coach David Braun is 0-3 ATS against FCS competition, and we saw in a similar situation last year against an overmatched Eastern Illinois team. The Cats really throttled down in the second half with a conference opponent on deck.
With Oregon coming in, the starters will likely get a quick pull halfway through the third quarter.
We're expecting some Chicago wind in the forecast for Friday night. Current reports show sustained 14-17 MPH wind with gusts of 21-24 MPH during the game. This is significant enough to alter play-calling slightly, affect deep throws and alter the trajectory of field goals.
I would expect this total to drop as we get closer to kickoff here, so grab under 51.5 and strap in.
Pick: Under 51.5 (Play to 49.5)
