The Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) and Dallas Cowboys (5-7) will face off on NFL Monday Night Football tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN and can be streamed on YouTube TV.
Bengals vs. Cowboys odds (via Caesars Sportsbook) have the Bengals as -218 moneyline favorites and the Cowboys as +180 underdogs. The over/under is 50.5 total points (-115o / -105u). The Bengals are 4.5-point favorites on the spread over the Cowboys (-4.5).
Let's get into my Bengals vs. Cowboys prediction and Monday Night Football picks, plus the latest MNF betting trends, injuries for both teams and more.
Bengals vs. Cowboys Odds, Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
| Cincinnati Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 51 -108o / -112u | -218 |
| Dallas Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 51 -108o / -112u | +180 |
- Bengals vs. Cowboys spread: Bengals -4.5 (-115), Cowboys +4.5 (-105)
- Bengals vs. Cowboys over/under: 51 total points (-108o / -112u)
- Bengals vs. Cowboys moneyline: Bengals -218, Cowboys +180
- Bengals vs. Cowboys best bet: Under 51
Mypick is on the game total under 50.5. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Bengals vs. Cowboys Prediction
Over/Under Best Bet
I'm betting under the total. The line was 49.5 across the market on Sunday night, but it moved up to 50 on Monday morning. I'd play this down to 49, so it might be worth waiting until closer to kickoff to see if we can get to 50.5.
My Pick: Under 51 (to 49)
Against the Spread Pick
I project this spread as Bengals -4, but I don't see enough value on either side to make a bet.
Bengals vs. Cowboys Monday Night Football Preview, Predictions
After a 44-38 loss at Pittsburgh last week, the Bengals are now averaging a ridiculous 66.2 combined points over their last five games. They are 5-0 to the over during that span with a whopping +18.7 differential relative to the closing total.
Even for a team with Joe Burrow at quarterback leading the league in passing yards and touchdowns, and a defense ranked in the bottom three in EPA/play, that is an unsustainable pace.
Since 2005, there have only been 85 matchups where the road team enters with an over/differential above +13.0 over its last five games, or roughly four per season, and the under is 51-32-2 (61.4%) in those contests, according to our Action Labs data. That includes a 9-6-1 (60.0%) mark indoors.
Among quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, Rush ranks 36th of 37 in EPA/DB (-0.121), and 36th of 37 YPA (5.4), both ahead of only Deshaun Watson.
Rush has started 10 games in his career, and only one has topped 47 points.
Rush's starts average 41.3 total points with a median of 39.5.
The lone Rush start that went over 47 was Cowboys–Commanders in Week 12, and the score in that game was 13-9 Cowboys with just over 5 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter before all hell broke loose.
Rush is going to play the dink-and-dunk game by getting the ball out of hands as quickly as possible: His 2.30-second average time ranks as the quickest among all qualified passers, per PFF. Rush has thrown at least 25 passes in a game five times (four starts, one in relief), and he finished with under 5.5 YPA in those of those five, with ghastly marks of 4.6, 2.0, and 5.4 against the Falcons, Eagles, and Giants, respectively.
The Cowboys are dealing with injuries along the offensive line — Zack martin is out and Tyler Guyton is questionable after failing to practice all week — so there is no reason to think he will diverge from that strategy. The Bengals have have allowed 34 or more points in three straight games to Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Russell Wilson, but Rush is…not that.
Per our Action Labs data, the under is 38-18 (67.9%) when the road team enters allowing at least 30 points in three straight games.
Burrow will again be without left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., and that could finally catch up to him against a Cowboys defense that has Micah Parsons back and ranks No. 1 in pressure rate, according to Pro Football Reference Advanced Stats.
This is also a Luck Under, clocking in at -8.4 in our Week 14 Luck Rankings. Luck totals are 15-9 (62.5%).
My Pick: Under 51 (to 49)
Bengals vs. Cowboys Betting Trends
Bengals Trends
- Bengals are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Bengals are 5-1 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Bengals' last 5 games
- Joe Burrow is 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in his Monday Night Football starts
Cowboys Trends
- Cowboys are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Cowboys' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Cowboys' 6 last games at home
Bengals vs. Cowboys Latest Injuries
Bengals Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| OT Orlando Brown | Out (fibula) |
| DT Sheldon Rankins | Out (illness) |
| WR Charlie Jones | Questionable (groin) |
Cowboys Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| G Zack Martin | Out (ankle/shoulder) |
| DB Juanyeh Thomas | Out (knee) |
| OT Tyler Guyton | Questionable (ankle/knee) |
| CB Trevon Diggs | Questionable (knee) |
| LB Nick Vigil | Questionable (foot) |
Bengals vs. Cowboys Inactives
Bengals Inactives
| Player |
|---|
| WR Charlie Jones |
| S Daijahn Anthony |
| OT Orlando Brown |
| TE Tanner McLachlan |
| DT Sheldon Rankins |
Cowboys Inactives
| Player |
|---|
| RB Deuce Vaughn |
| WR Jalen Brooks |
| DE Tyrus Wheat |
| LB Damone Clark |
| CB Andrew Booth |
| S Juanyeh Thomas |
