The Cleveland Browns (1-2) and Detroit Lions (2-1) will face off in Week 4 of the NFL season this afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Ford Field in Detroit, Mich. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Lions are 9.5-point favorites over the Browns on the spread (Lions -9.5), with the over/under set at 44.5. Detroit is a -560 favorite to win outright, while Cleveland is +430 on the moenyline to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Browns vs Lions predictions and Week 4 pick for Sunday, Sept. 28.
Browns vs Lions Predictions, Picks
- Browns vs Lions pick: Under 44.5 (-110)
My Lions vs. Browns best bet is on the under, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Browns vs Lions Odds, Spread, Total, Moneyline
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -102 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +430 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -120 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -560 |
- Browns vs Lions Spread: Browns +9.5 (-102), Lions -9.5 (-120)
- Browns vs Lions Total: 44.5
- Browns vs Lions Moneyline: Browns +430, Lions -560
Browns vs Lions Betting Trends
Browns Trends
- Opposing RBs are averaging 2.29 yards per carry against the Browns, which is the lowest mark in the NFL
- 67.5% of the Browns' offensive plays have been by the pass vs. only 32.5% on the ground.
Lions Trends
- The Lions have covered 70% of their regular-season games since 2021 (49-21-1 ATS)
- Since 2019, Jared Goff is 42-18-1 ATS in indoor games — he's over .500 ATS each season — and has covered the spread by 4.3 PPG, with an ATS ROI of +33.4% in those 61 games
Browns vs Lions Preview, Week 4 Prediction
The Browns threw the "Kitchen Sink" at the Packers last week, as they shut down Green Bay's offense and pulled off a miracle comeback late to steal a shocking win.
It's rare to see huge underdogs pull off wins like that in back-to-back weeks, but there's a lot of similar reasons to like Cleveland here.
The Browns' defense is really good, but Jared Goff has been nigh invincible at home in Detroit too.
Similar to last week, if the Browns do keep it close, it almost has to be an under. So, that's my play for this game.
I probably don't have to tell you Cleveland won't score many points.
The Browns have scored 16, 17, and 13 points in their three games so far this season, and they actually haven't topped 18 points in any of their last 16 games that didn't feature Jameis Winston.
Per Clevta, the Browns are an ugly 15-0-1 to their team total under in that stretch, if you prefer to bet that way.
I'm taking the full-game under, because this is not just a bet against the Browns offense, but also a bet on their defense.
Jim Schwartz' unit was one of the best in the NFL two seasons ago, and appears to be back in peak form this season.
Cleveland ranks third in defensive DVOA through three games, and they rank first against the run. And it's not like the competition has been bad.
So far, the Browns have allowed just 204 yards per game to offenses led by Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Love.
The Lions' offense has looked like a monster the last couple weeks with the run game dominating behind a great offensive line.
But that line saw precious little resistance against Bears and Ravens' defensive fronts that have been among the league's worst thus far.
It was a different story against a terrific Packers' defensive front in Week 1, when the Lions ran for 46 yards and scored only 13 points.
Browns vs Lions Best Bet
The Browns had the best run defense in the NFL over the course of the first three weeks of the season.
Rookies Mason Graham and Carson Schwesinger have made huge immediate impacts, and Myles Garrett is matching his Defensive Player of the Year form.
Browns' games this season have tallied combined totals of 33 points, 23 points, and then 58 in their matchup against Baltimore.
However, even the Ravens' game still hovered around 30 points entering the fourth quarter before things really got away from Cleveland.
The Lions are playing on a short week after a tough, physical game against Baltimore, and this could be an emotional letdown spot after pulling off such a big win.
The Browns' defense is good enough to keep this game low-scoring and close.
Browns vs Lions Best Bet
- Under 44.5 (-110)
Browns vs Lions Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Ford Field in Detroit, Mich. |
| Date: | Sunday, Sept. 21 |
| Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | FOX |
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