A Ravens field goal meant this game wasn't over just before the two-minute warning. Challenge accepted by Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, as the Chiefs dialed up an aggressive play call on third-and-long to put this one away.
The Chiefs covered as 4.5-point underdogs and won as +185 moneyline underdogs, with the under cashing easily on the pregame total of 44.5 in the Chiefs' 17-10 win. Now, Kansas City is on to the Super Bowl.
Stop us if you've heard this before: driving down the field, down double-digits, the Ravens committed a massive turnover in the end zone that very well might have decided the game.
With the pick, Kansas City is -9.5 on the live spread, with the live total set at over/under 29.5 points.
After the big play to Flowers mentioned below, it looked as if the Ravens might be on the verge of bringing this one to within one score. But the Chiefs defense had other thoughts.
The Chiefs are currently 7.5-point favorites on the live odds.
Still down 17-7, Baltimore needs to figure out something quick. So why not bring out one of the greatest legends in Ravens history for his version of a pep talk?
The Ravens defense drew a three-and-out on the subsequent possession, and a big play to Zay Flowers has Baltimore in business. That play also has our live betting expert pulling the trigger on our first live bet of the day at over 38.5: "The Ravens got a spark thanks to a 54-yard bomb to Zay Flowers, and they are likely to turn this into a one-score game soon. ESPN left 38.5 on the board (which represents two more touchdowns plus an additional point) which we'll take just before the end of the third quarter."
The Chiefs enter halftime with a 17-7 lead after a field goal to close the second quarter, but it probably could have been more. Kansas City was whistled for back-to-back holding penalties to wipe long gains off the board.
At the half, the Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites, with the total coming down to over/under 45.5 points on the live odds.
The standout performance of the first half was undoubtedly Travis Kelce, who already has 96 yards receiving on nine catches, including a score. Along the way, Kelce passed the legendary Jerry Rice in the all-time record books.
Lamar Jackson completes a pass to ... Lamar Jackson?
Not only did the Ravens QB have the composure to fetch this one after a Chiefs deflection, he did it in traffic -- and gained positive yardage for good measure.
What a play, Lamar. What a play.
That impressive display from Jackson followed the Ravens defense coming up with an impressive stop of their own to keep things close.
What's the best way to follow up a go-ahead touchdown? How about a strip sack to regain possession and keep the pressure on in the AFC Championship Game?
Yep, that'll do nicely. The Chiefs moved to -3.5 on the live spread after the turnover.
The Chiefs look like an absolute machine early, as an Isiah Pacheco 2-yard touchdown run put Kansas City back in front 14-7. The live spread moved to Chiefs -2.5 after the score, with the over/under 52.5.
Pacheco was +135 to score a TD on Sunday.
Here was our live betting expert's reaction: "Another Chiefs score makes three straight touchdown drives since the Ravens went 3-and-out to open the game. The total is now 52.5, and if either team is able to pull away by multiple scores would likely lead to a bet on the under."
Patrick Mahomes had all day in the pocket on this one, hanging around untouched for nearly 10 seconds, but it took a diving play by Travis Kelce to secure the completion and the first down for the Chiefs.
Fortune favors the bold -- and the really, really good. After the Ravens went for it on fourth down in their own territory and converted, Lamar Jackson evaded the rush, set his feet and fired an absolute strike to Zay Flowers to pull the Ravens even with the Chiefs at 7-7.
The touchdown moved the Ravens back to 3.5-point favorites, with the total rising to 51.5 on the live odds.
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Travis Kelce now has six career touchdowns in six career conference championship games, as he opened the scoring in the AFC title game on Sunday.
Kelce was +120 to score a TD on the day and +950 to score the first. The Chiefs moved to 1.5-point favorites on the live odds after the Kelce score, with the total moving to over/under 46.5. As for live betting, our expert had this to say: "After picking up a big fourth down conversion they marched the field and got it to their star tight end Travis Kelce, giving them a 7-0 lead and taking the live total up to 46.5. If Baltimore answers it would be a good thing for the over, another Chiefs stop and score and we start to get into under territory."
Just minutes before kickoff, the Ravens remain 4.5-point favorites across the board in the AFC Championship, with the total settling in at 44.5 or 44 points scored by both teams combined. The Chiefs remain just shy of +200 moneyline underdogs to win outright.
What's a conference championship game without some shenanigans? While warming up before the game, Patrick Mahomes decided he needed space to himself -- at the expense of Ravens kicker Justin Tucker.
And when Tucker stayed strong, Mahomes had a little backup.
Bad news for the Chiefs shortly before kickoff of the AFC title game, as Kansas City ruled linebacker Willie Gay inactive with a neck strain.
The Chiefs told reporters earlier this week they were prepared if Gay was unable to go, but there's no doubt Kansas City will miss the veteran.
With the Gay news official, the point spread for Chiefs versus Ravens moved to Baltimore -4.5 across the board, with Circa Sports going all the way to Ravens -5.
Our NFL live betting expert is previewing how he'll look to live bet the AFC title game, and his best read before kickoff is on overs in a close game, if there is a live bet to be made: "A close game should lead to a quicker pace. These offenses look to play aggressively until/unless they get a comfortable lead, combining to play about 1.5-seconds faster than league average. In addition, having two elite quarterbacks raises the chances of a shootout considerably, tough defensive matchups notwithstanding. We'll need some movement from the pregame total of 44.5, and ideally some fluky situations that drive the score up or down. The likeliest scenario is a no bet, though we'll consider pursuing other markets than the total."
While the Ravens opened as 2.5 or 3-point favorites against the Chiefs last weekend, money has kept coming in on Baltimore. The point spread for Chiefs vs Ravens is now Baltimore -4.5 at most sportsbooks, although there are a few Ravens -4 lines still available. The consensus on the total at nearly every sportsbook is over/under 44 points scored, with FanDuel currently the lone exception at 44.5
Action Network betting experts have you covered across the board with Chiefs vs Ravens best bets and picks for the AFC title game.
Let's start with Stuckey's Chiefs vs Ravens preview, where he's expecting an outright Baltimore win:
As we get closer to kickoff of the AFC Championship, injury updates are rolling in. The Ravens received some good news Saturday night, as cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Rock Ya-Sin are expected to play after being listed as questionable, per Adam Schefter.
Schefter also reports that Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco will play versus the Ravens.
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About the Author
Andrew Lynch • Verified Action Expert
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