The Chargers (11-6) and Texans (10-7) will open NFL Wild Card Weekend at 4:30 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium. The game will be live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+.
Let's get to my Texans vs. Chargers predictions and NFL picks for this Saturday.
The Chargers are 3-point favorites at most sportsbooks, with the over/under set at 42 total points at Caesars, which will be the best book for my best bet. Los Angeles is a -165 favorite to win outright, while Houston +140 to pull off the upset. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Texans vs. Chargers Prediction, Picks
Over/Under
My pick for Chargers-Texans is the game to go under 43 total points. That's a key number in NFL betting, so that's the number you want.
I would pay up to -115 for 43, but I'd only recommend one-half unit on 42 or 42.5.
My Pick: Under 42
Texans vs. Chargers Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 42 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 42 -110o / -110u | -175 |
- Texans vs. Chargers spread: Chargers -2.5 (-125)
- Texans vs. Chargers over/under: 42 total points
- Texans vs. Chargers moneyline: Chargers -165, Texans +140
Texans vs. Chargers Picks
Forty-three is a key number for totals, so use our NFL odds page to get that number if possible. I would settle for 42.5 or 42, though.
This could be a very low-scoring game. The Texans only have two main weapons for C.J. Stroud — RB Joe Mixon and WR Nico Collins — and I could see Houston coming out with a run-heavy attack. The Texans offense hasn’t been efficient all season, so that might make sense.
Houston has tilted a little too far toward a pass-heavy approach on early downs, even after it lost Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. The offensive line has allowed too much pressure; I’d say that’s why a run-heavy attack could make sense.
The Chargers defense has also been shakier against the run this season. Los Angeles usually likes to sit back in coverage — more than most teams — and avoid getting beaten by big plays. Houston could have success running the ball and in turn have more time of possession than usual.
Also, without Diggs or Dell, Collins’ explosiveness hasn’t been there. He’s averaging less than 10 yards per reception without those two on the field this season. That leans right into the Chargers’ ability to avoid conceding big plays.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans will be without their two starting safeties, which is very important. Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre have been key for them this season and move around the defense a lot.
Houston has been good against play action this season, and the Chargers implement that a lot in their offense. Justin Herbert is averaging 3.4 more yards per pass attempt with play action than without it — the Texans defense ranked first in success rate against play action during the regular season.
Herbert also has thrived when blitzed this season. He’s averaging 7.2 yards per attempt when the opposition doesn’t blitz and 8.7 when they do. Well, the Texans don’t need to blitz to get pressure with a 27.3% non-blitz pressure rate, which is seventh in the NFL.
The Texans also have been stout against the run, which is the hallmark of the Chargers offense. Houston has a top-three run defense in adjusted line yards allowed and is in the top four in yards allowed per game against running backs. Overall, this matchup suits the Texans defense very well.
Overall, this matchup is a good one for both defenses. Shop around and hope we get 43 on the total, then bet the under.
My Pick: Under 42
Texans vs. Chargers Betting Trends
