The Los Angeles Rams (14-5) and Seattle Seahawks (15-3) face off today in the NFC Championship Game. Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET from Lumen Field in Seattle, Was. Rams vs Seahawks will broadcast on FOX.
The Seahawks are 2.5-point favorites on the spread (Seahawks -2.5; -105), with an over/under of 45.5 (-115o / -105u). The Seahawks are -142 moneyline; the Rams are +120 underdogs.
Below, you can find my Rams vs Seahawks prediction in my NFC Championship Game preview — in additional to the latest NFL odds, inactives/injuries, betting trends, viewing information, weather forecast and more.
Rams vs Seahawks Predictions, Picks
- Rams vs Seahawks pick: Rams +3 (bet to -130); bet to +2.5
My Rams vs Seahawks best bet is on the Rams to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Rams vs Seahawks Odds, Spread, Total, Moneyline
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | +120 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | -142 |
Rams vs Seahawks Preview: Does McVay Have Edge Over Macdonald?
The Rams and Seahawks will meet in a rubber match for all of the NFC marbles after the first two meetings in the regular season both came down to the wire. In fact, these teams were separated by a single yard and point in those two games.
In Week 11, the Rams held on for a 21-19 victory after the Seahawks missed a game-winning 61-yard field goal as time expired. Seattle's defense held Matthew Stafford to one of his worst performances of the season (15-for-28 for 130 yards), but Sam Darnold's four interceptions were too much for the Seahawks to overcome.
The rematch in Week 16 played out in a completely different manner, with the Seahawks mounting a miraculous fourth-quarter comeback from 16 points down to pull out a 38-37 victory in overtime on a game-winning two-point conversion despite getting outgained 581-415 and Stafford having his season high in passing yards (he had his season-low in the first meeting).
That win eventually led to Seattle winning the division and securing the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. As a result, it will host the NFC Championship Game in Lumen Stadium as the much more rested team, while the Rams will hit the road for a third consecutive week following trips to Charlotte and Chicago.
So, who will come out on top in the third meeting and become the Super Bowl Favorite? Let's dive into the NFC Championship Game.
Most would say these are the top two teams in the NFL, but almost everybody would agree this matchup features the top offense against the top defense. From a DVOA perspective, L.A.'s offense finished first by a wide margin, as did Seattle's defense.
2025-26 Regular Season Offense DVOA Top Offenses
- Rams 30.7%
- 49ers 17.6%
- Patriots 16.2%
- Bills 15.1%
2025-26 Regular Season Offense DVOA Top Defenses
- Seahawks -24.2%
- Texans -19.3%
- Vikings -15.0%
- Rams -12.4%
Which unit has the edge this time around? It will likely come down to the respective game plans and adjustments made by Rams head coach Sean McVay and Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald.
In the first meeting, the Rams used 11 personnel on close to two-thirds of their offensive snaps, but flipped the script in Week 16 by using 13 personnel on over 60% of their snaps. Despite not having the services of Davante Adams and star right guard Kevin Dotson, L.A. had no issues moving the ball in that second game.
The Rams found some success running right at rookie safety Nick Emmanwori and finding Puca Nacua repeatedly in one of the most impressive performances of the season. Nacau finished with 12 catches for 225 yards and two touchdowns. That's more yards than any of the other previous six quarterbacks have thrown for against Seattle and one more touchdown than all six combined to throw!
- Brock Purdy: 19/27, 130 yards, 0 TD
- Bryce Young: 14/24, 54 yards, 0 TD
- Brock Purdy: 15/27, 140 yards, 0 TD
- Kirk Cousins: 15/30, 162 yards, 0 TD
- Philip Rivers: 18/27, 120 yards, 1 TD
- Max Brosmer: 19/30, 126 yards, 0 TD
Seattle didn't allow more than 162 passing yards in any of those games, while Stafford cleared 450 with more than half of those going to Puca.
We can expect adjustments and tweaks from both teams in such a high-leverage game. Will McVay go with a high rate of 13 personnel again (the Rams had some success throwing out of this in Week 16 but not running the ball) or go back to his 11 personnel roots (where they had more success running the ball in Week 16) as he oddly did last week in Chicago despite the Bears struggling against those looks all season.
McVay also really abandoned the run against a weak Chicago run defense, but that might be the most prudent approach against a historically dominant Seattle run defense that has allowed a minuscule 35.8% success rate and just 3.7 yards per attempt.
Macdonald stated he tried to implement a few too many new things on a short week before that Week 16 showdown, so I'd expect the Seattle defense to be much more buttoned up this time around.
On paper, heavy personnel doesn't work as well against Seattle due to its dominant defensive line and the presence of Emmanwori (Seattle's version of Kyle Hamilton), who can effectively play the run as a linebacker if needed. That allows Macondald to stay in nickel against any look opposing offenses throw at him.
To wit, the only two games that opposing defenses didn't match L.A.'s 13 personnel packages with base defense at least 50% of the time came against Seattle. The Seahawks' front can also generate pressure without blitzing, which gives Macdonald ultimate flexibility on the back end.
Macdonald has essentially built the perfect modern defense — in large part borne out of the need to slow down the McVay and Shanahan offenses — that really doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. His stop unit became just the fifth since 2000 to lead the NFL in yards per rush and net yards per pass attempt.
However, the same can be said of the Rams offense, which has the likely MVP at quarterback in Stafford, a dynamic running back duo in Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, a stout offensive line (especially with Dotson back), depth for days at tight end (which gives McVay so much flexibility in personnel groupings) and one of the top wide receiver tandems in the NFL.
This is the definition of good on good from top to bottom. The battle will likely be won during the week leading up to the game — which staff can come up with and execute the most effective game plan with wrinkles that the other side isn't expecting?
Historically, when the top scoring defense meets the top scoring offense this late in the postseason, the defense has reigned supreme with seven wins in eight tries since the merger.
However, in their previous five head-to-head meetings, McVay (who has gone 3-0 in the playoffs when facing a team for a third time) has the overall edge. Over the past three seasons, McVay's offenses (with one Jimmy Garoppolo start) have averaged 28 points per game against Macdonald's defenses, while all other offenses over that stretch have averaged just over 17.
I can't wait for this chess match.
So, how about when Seattle has the ball?
Well, that might come down to game script. In an ideal world for the Seahawks, Darnold won't have to do much and can serve as more of a game manager if Seattle has the lead. In so many of Seattle's victories this year, it has built a substantial margin on the back of its elite defense (and special teams) in which case Darnold doesn't have to do much.
However, if the Rams have success on offense and Darnold has to keep pace with Stafford, things could get a bit dicier for Seattle because that's when turnovers could start to pile up under pressure, which the Rams can certainly generate with Jared Verse (who has 19 pressures in two games against Seattle this season) and company — especially if Darnold is compromised with his oblique injury (which could flare up at any time and negatively effect his deep ball) and the Seahawks are forced to turn to a backup (or even potentially a third or fourth-string) left tackle due to Charles Cross' injury.
We have seen catastrophic Darnold turnovers and sacks in each of the four meetings with this Rams defense over the past two seasons. Los Angeles sacked Darnold 16 times and had seven interceptions (six of the seven coming this year) in those four games.
It's also worth noting the Seattle offense has been figured out a bit over the second half of the season. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak had Darnold cooking early in the season. With defenses loading the box to stop the Seattle run game (which liked to use a decent amount of heavy personnel), Darnold thrived through the air with a heavy use of play-action with Jaxon Smith-Njigba being the primary beneficiary.
However, over the second half of the season, defenses adjusted. They started playing with lighter boxes, allowing the Seahawks to run the ball more effectively in order to take away Smith-Njigba and the more detrimental explosive passing plays.
Over the first nine weeks of the season, Darnold ranked third in EPA per play with the highest yards per attempt in the NFL, but those numbers fell off a cliff thereafter. From Weeks 10-18, he ranked 27th and 12th in those two respective categories. However, as I mentioned, the run game became much more effective, going from 27th in EPA per play to 11th.
Even if we focus on more recent games, the Seattle offense ranks 27th in EPA per play (and 15th in Success Rate) since Week 13 despite getting to face the pressure-less defenses of Carolina and San Francisco in each of its past three games.
If Seattle can build a lead and its defense shuts down the Rams, relying on the run game will probably be good enough at home. Although, the Seahawks lost RB Zach Charbonnet to a season-ending injury last week, which puts much more onus on Kenneth Walker.
While Walker has big-play ability, he struggles at times on a down-to-down basis. On the season, Walker ranks No. 1 in Explosive Rush Rate but just 45th out of 49 running backs in Success Rate. That could lead to some obvious passing situations on third-and-long where the Rams' pressure could have a major say in the outcome of this game.
Lastly, I would be remiss if I didn't mention special teams again.
If we have a stalemate in regards to each offense's respective matchup, the difference could come down to the often forgotten third phase of the game. If that's the case, Seattle would have a massive edge.
On the season, the Seahawks rank second in DVOA on special teams while the Rams rank 26th. We saw that play out in Week 16, when Rashid Shaheed's punt return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter arguably changed the entire complexion of the game. Shaheed's already made his presence felt during the postseason, returning the opening kickoff from the 49ers for a touchdown in the Divisional Round.
NFC Championship Game Against the Spread Prediction
I personally bought the Rams spread to +3 (-125) and would do so up to -130. If not available, I'd still bet Los Angeles at +2.5 smaller, or wait to see if a +3 (or better) pops live.
I project this spread Seattle -1 after adjusting for the scheduling spot, which clearly favors Seattle.
The Seahawks benefited from a bye on Wild Card Weekend, followed by a laugher against the 49ers in which they didn't have to spend much energy. Now, they get to stay at home and take on a Rams team playing in their third straight road game (and seventh in nine weeks) following an overtime win and two consecutive hard-fought wins. Late season fatigue is certainly a concern and maybe part of the reason the Rams have shown a few more cracks in recent weeks.
However, Sam Darnold not being 100% healthy might end up trumping that advantage. Ultimately, I just think there's a bit too much recency bias factored into this spread.
Going back to Week 16, I bet Seattle +1 at home against a shorthanded Rams squad. I won that bet, but got extremely lucky. Despite the Seattle win, almost everybody agreed the Rams were the class of the league and the clear Super Bowl favorite. Now, we are pushing Seahawks -3 a month later with a healthier Rams roster.
I get the Seahawks have looked like the better team of late, but they have played the Panthers and a shorthanded 49ers team twice since that Week 16 win. The 16-game sample prior to that meeting is much more meaningful, in my opinion.
For those of you who have read my stuff in the past, you know I love to fade teams coming off 35-plus-point victories, as they usually present golden opportunities to sell high on a team.
Historically, those have hit at a 57% clip. Seattle's 35-plus-point win last week was only the second we've seen in the postseason since 2003. New England had the other back in 2011 against the Broncos. The Patriots failed to cover the following week at home in the AFC Championship in a game the Ravens should have won outright if not for a Lee Evans dropped touchdown (followed by Billy Cundiff's infamous game-tying missed chip-shot field goal).
If we look at teams that won in the postseason by 20 or more points over that span, they have gone just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) the following week. A rather insignificant sample size, but just remember teams are usually never as bad or as good as they look at their extremes in the NFL (except for the Jets).
If you're curious about teams playing in their third straight road game in the playoffs, it's only happened 13 times since 2003. Those teams have gone 5-8 ATS on Championship Sunday, but the future Hall of Fame QBs (and Jimmy Garoppolo) went 5-0 against the closing number. The quarterbacks who didn't cover include Donovan McNabb, Jayden Daniels, Joe Flacco, Ryan Tannehill, Jake Delhomme, Mark Sanchez and Colin Kaepernick.
Stafford obviously fits more in line with the former group.
I'm taking the points with the much more reliable and playoff-tested quarterback. While Stafford has five playoff victories away from home in his career, Darnold picked up his first ever postseason win last week without having to do much.
If this comes down to which quarterback can handle game and defensive pressure better, the choice is obvious between Darnold (28th in EPA per play under pressure) and Stafford (ninth). Don't be surprised if a few ghosts make an appearance for the Los Angeles defense, which has forced 10 (24%) of Darnold's 42 plays of -3 EPA or worse over the past two seasons across four of 36 total games (11%).
Conversely, in four meetings against Macdonald over the past three seasons, Stafford has thrown 10 touchdowns to just one interception to go along with only two sacks. And in the two meetings this season, he finished with a grand total of zero interceptions.
In what I project as a quasi coin flip, I'm perfectly fine taking the points with the superior quarterback despite the significant rest disadvantage and inferior special teams.
Pick: Rams +3 (bet to -130); bet to +2.5
Rams vs Seahawks Betting Trends
Rams Trends
- Sean McVay is 13-6 against the spread (ATS) against the Seahawks as head coach of the Rams; he is 12-3 ATS since 2019
- The Rams are 5-2 ATS and 6-1 straight up (SU) against the Seahawks with Matthew Stafford
Seahawks Trends
- Mike Macdonald is 7-2 SU with the Seahawks on extended prep time
- Macdonald's Seahawks have won seven straight night games entering the NFC Championship
Rams vs Seahawks Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Lumen Field in Seattle, Was. |
| Date: | Sunday, Jan. 25 |
| Time: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | FOX |
Rams vs Seahawks Injuries, Inactives
Rams Inactives, Injuries
QB Stetson Bennett (3rd QB)
WR Tutu Atwell
CB Derion Kendrick
RB Jarquez Hunter
TE Nick Vannett
OL Beaux Limmer
DE Larrell Murchison
Seahawks Inactives, Injuries
OT Amari Kight (knee)
FB Robbie Ouzts (neck)
TE Elijah Arroyo
LB Jared Ivey
G Christian Haynes
RB Velus Jones Jr.
QB Jalen Milroe (3rd QB)
