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This is the most fun bet you can make this weekend. Seattle made a big midseason trade for Rashid Shaheed and already saw the deal pay off when he returned the first play of Seattle's postseason 95 yards for an opening kickoff TD against the 49ers. Shaheed also ran twice for 27 yards, and that's been his role for Seattle. Less volume like with the Saints, and more of a Percy Harvin gadget role — special teams, deep passes, and a few runs. Shaheed played nine snaps at RB last week, and he played 17 against the Rams. He should see even more such snaps with Charbonnet out. He's logged a rush nine times in 10 games with Seattle, with at least one in both Rams games — one of them for 31 yards. I'm betting Rasheed Shaheed over 0.5 rushing yards (bet365). He's cleared that line in six of 10 Seattle games (60%) and we really just need one run — or even a backward screen pass type play. A receiver has run for positive yardage in 9-of-19 Rams games, and the Seahawks were responsible for three of those — two by Shaheed. And as fast as Shaheed is, we'd be crazy not to take the escalator. He had a 30-yard run just last week and a 31-yarder against the Rams earlier this season. Play 20+ rushing yards at +800 and then 30+ yards at +1500, both at bet365. We may only get one shot at this all game, so let's hope Shaheed make it count.

This is the most fun bet you can make this weekend. Seattle made a big midseason trade for Rashid Shaheed and already saw the deal pay off when he returned the first play of Seattle's postseason 95 yards for an opening kickoff TD against the 49ers. Shaheed also ran twice for 27 yards, and that's been his role for Seattle. Less volume like with the Saints, and more of a Percy Harvin gadget role — special teams, deep passes, and a few runs. Shaheed played nine snaps at RB last week, and he played 17 against the Rams. He should see even more such snaps with Charbonnet out. He's logged a rush nine times in 10 games with Seattle, with at least one in both Rams games — one of them for 31 yards. I'm betting Rasheed Shaheed over 0.5 rushing yards (bet365). He's cleared that line in six of 10 Seattle games (60%) and we really just need one run — or even a backward screen pass type play. A receiver has run for positive yardage in 9-of-19 Rams games, and the Seahawks were responsible for three of those — two by Shaheed. And as fast as Shaheed is, we'd be crazy not to take the escalator. He had a 30-yard run just last week and a 31-yarder against the Rams earlier this season. Play 20+ rushing yards at +800 and then 30+ yards at +1500, both at bet365. We may only get one shot at this all game, so let's hope Shaheed make it count.

This is the most fun bet you can make this weekend. Seattle made a big midseason trade for Rashid Shaheed and already saw the deal pay off when he returned the first play of Seattle's postseason 95 yards for an opening kickoff TD against the 49ers. Shaheed also ran twice for 27 yards, and that's been his role for Seattle. Less volume like with the Saints, and more of a Percy Harvin gadget role — special teams, deep passes, and a few runs. Shaheed played nine snaps at RB last week, and he played 17 against the Rams. He should see even more such snaps with Charbonnet out. He's logged a rush nine times in 10 games with Seattle, with at least one in both Rams games — one of them for 31 yards. I'm betting Rasheed Shaheed over 0.5 rushing yards (bet365). He's cleared that line in six of 10 Seattle games (60%) and we really just need one run — or even a backward screen pass type play. A receiver has run for positive yardage in 9-of-19 Rams games, and the Seahawks were responsible for three of those — two by Shaheed. And as fast as Shaheed is, we'd be crazy not to take the escalator. He had a 30-yard run just last week and a 31-yarder against the Rams earlier this season. Play 20+ rushing yards at +800 and then 30+ yards at +1500, both at bet365. We may only get one shot at this all game, so let's hope Shaheed make it count.

There's been a ton of talk all season about LA's 13 personnel — one back and three tight ends. The Rams went away from their 13 personnel in the first Seattle game but used it for 62% of their snaps in the rematch, meaning over half the snaps on the season against Seattle. Then LA went away from 13 again versus Chicago, playing just 9% of its snaps there, while typical TE1 Tyler Higbee played only eight snaps, fourth amongst Rams tight ends. As good as Seattle's defense has been all season, it's been vulnerable against tight ends, ranking top five for most TE receptions allowed and top 10 for TE fantasy points. The one Rams tight end getting consistent snaps right now is Colby Parkinson. He caught the game-winning TD against Carolina and had a similar late target against Chicago, and he's become a real go-to TD threat for Stafford. Parkinson has scored nine touchdowns in his last 11 games, including one against Seattle. His Anytime TD odds are way off at +425 (Hard Rock) and worth a play. And you already know we're going back to the well on Terrance Ferguson. We tried a longest reception escalator against Seattle in the first matchup but Ferguson barely got on the field. Never wrong, just early? Ferguson had a career-high three catches for 33 yards in the rematch and scored a touchdown, and he had a 27-yard catch too. Ferguson is seeing consistent snaps now, about two-thirds of Rams snaps since the start of December, and those targets are getting more consistent too, with at least four in three straight games. That's key because the rookie has caught only 44% of his passes on the season — in part because 21 of his 30 targets are deep passes on the year, 70% of them attacking downfield with Ferguson's speed. Four targets means more bites at the apple, because we likely only get one or two catches. Ferguson has 12 catches this season. Three-fourths of them have gone for at least 18 yards, and half are 27+ yards. The catches are rare, but when they come, they're big plays. That's why Ferguson's longest reception line of over 10.5 yards at BetMGM (-115) is absurd. In eight games with a catch this season, Ferguson has at least a 19-yard catch in all but one of them! The line should be double that, which means 20+ longest catch is a no brainer at +256 (DraftKings). We'll play 25+ too at +455 (DraftKings), a number he's hit in five of six games with at least three targets. Sprinkle Ferguson touchdown too at +750 (Hard Rock). He's score in two of the last three games, including against Seattle, and tight ends have caught eight of Stafford's last 14 touchdowns, over half. If you play both Ferguson and Parkinson, you get both of what look like the top Rams TEs together at around +225, a bargain price that could see both hit.

There's been a ton of talk all season about LA's 13 personnel — one back and three tight ends. The Rams went away from their 13 personnel in the first Seattle game but used it for 62% of their snaps in the rematch, meaning over half the snaps on the season against Seattle. Then LA went away from 13 again versus Chicago, playing just 9% of its snaps there, while typical TE1 Tyler Higbee played only eight snaps, fourth amongst Rams tight ends. As good as Seattle's defense has been all season, it's been vulnerable against tight ends, ranking top five for most TE receptions allowed and top 10 for TE fantasy points. The one Rams tight end getting consistent snaps right now is Colby Parkinson. He caught the game-winning TD against Carolina and had a similar late target against Chicago, and he's become a real go-to TD threat for Stafford. Parkinson has scored nine touchdowns in his last 11 games, including one against Seattle. His Anytime TD odds are way off at +425 (Hard Rock) and worth a play. And you already know we're going back to the well on Terrance Ferguson. We tried a longest reception escalator against Seattle in the first matchup but Ferguson barely got on the field. Never wrong, just early? Ferguson had a career-high three catches for 33 yards in the rematch and scored a touchdown, and he had a 27-yard catch too. Ferguson is seeing consistent snaps now, about two-thirds of Rams snaps since the start of December, and those targets are getting more consistent too, with at least four in three straight games. That's key because the rookie has caught only 44% of his passes on the season — in part because 21 of his 30 targets are deep passes on the year, 70% of them attacking downfield with Ferguson's speed. Four targets means more bites at the apple, because we likely only get one or two catches. Ferguson has 12 catches this season. Three-fourths of them have gone for at least 18 yards, and half are 27+ yards. The catches are rare, but when they come, they're big plays. That's why Ferguson's longest reception line of over 10.5 yards at BetMGM (-115) is absurd. In eight games with a catch this season, Ferguson has at least a 19-yard catch in all but one of them! The line should be double that, which means 20+ longest catch is a no brainer at +256 (DraftKings). We'll play 25+ too at +455 (DraftKings), a number he's hit in five of six games with at least three targets. Sprinkle Ferguson touchdown too at +750 (Hard Rock). He's score in two of the last three games, including against Seattle, and tight ends have caught eight of Stafford's last 14 touchdowns, over half. If you play both Ferguson and Parkinson, you get both of what look like the top Rams TEs together at around +225, a bargain price that could see both hit.

There's been a ton of talk all season about LA's 13 personnel — one back and three tight ends. The Rams went away from their 13 personnel in the first Seattle game but used it for 62% of their snaps in the rematch, meaning over half the snaps on the season against Seattle. Then LA went away from 13 again versus Chicago, playing just 9% of its snaps there, while typical TE1 Tyler Higbee played only eight snaps, fourth amongst Rams tight ends. As good as Seattle's defense has been all season, it's been vulnerable against tight ends, ranking top five for most TE receptions allowed and top 10 for TE fantasy points. The one Rams tight end getting consistent snaps right now is Colby Parkinson. He caught the game-winning TD against Carolina and had a similar late target against Chicago, and he's become a real go-to TD threat for Stafford. Parkinson has scored nine touchdowns in his last 11 games, including one against Seattle. His Anytime TD odds are way off at +425 (Hard Rock) and worth a play. And you already know we're going back to the well on Terrance Ferguson. We tried a longest reception escalator against Seattle in the first matchup but Ferguson barely got on the field. Never wrong, just early? Ferguson had a career-high three catches for 33 yards in the rematch and scored a touchdown, and he had a 27-yard catch too. Ferguson is seeing consistent snaps now, about two-thirds of Rams snaps since the start of December, and those targets are getting more consistent too, with at least four in three straight games. That's key because the rookie has caught only 44% of his passes on the season — in part because 21 of his 30 targets are deep passes on the year, 70% of them attacking downfield with Ferguson's speed. Four targets means more bites at the apple, because we likely only get one or two catches. Ferguson has 12 catches this season. Three-fourths of them have gone for at least 18 yards, and half are 27+ yards. The catches are rare, but when they come, they're big plays. That's why Ferguson's longest reception line of over 10.5 yards at BetMGM (-115) is absurd. In eight games with a catch this season, Ferguson has at least a 19-yard catch in all but one of them! The line should be double that, which means 20+ longest catch is a no brainer at +256 (DraftKings). We'll play 25+ too at +455 (DraftKings), a number he's hit in five of six games with at least three targets. Sprinkle Ferguson touchdown too at +750 (Hard Rock). He's score in two of the last three games, including against Seattle, and tight ends have caught eight of Stafford's last 14 touchdowns, over half. If you play both Ferguson and Parkinson, you get both of what look like the top Rams TEs together at around +225, a bargain price that could see both hit.

There's been a ton of talk all season about LA's 13 personnel — one back and three tight ends. The Rams went away from their 13 personnel in the first Seattle game but used it for 62% of their snaps in the rematch, meaning over half the snaps on the season against Seattle. Then LA went away from 13 again versus Chicago, playing just 9% of its snaps there, while typical TE1 Tyler Higbee played only eight snaps, fourth amongst Rams tight ends. As good as Seattle's defense has been all season, it's been vulnerable against tight ends, ranking top five for most TE receptions allowed and top 10 for TE fantasy points. The one Rams tight end getting consistent snaps right now is Colby Parkinson. He caught the game-winning TD against Carolina and had a similar late target against Chicago, and he's become a real go-to TD threat for Stafford. Parkinson has scored nine touchdowns in his last 11 games, including one against Seattle. His Anytime TD odds are way off at +425 (Hard Rock) and worth a play. And you already know we're going back to the well on Terrance Ferguson. We tried a longest reception escalator against Seattle in the first matchup but Ferguson barely got on the field. Never wrong, just early? Ferguson had a career-high three catches for 33 yards in the rematch and scored a touchdown, and he had a 27-yard catch too. Ferguson is seeing consistent snaps now, about two-thirds of Rams snaps since the start of December, and those targets are getting more consistent too, with at least four in three straight games. That's key because the rookie has caught only 44% of his passes on the season — in part because 21 of his 30 targets are deep passes on the year, 70% of them attacking downfield with Ferguson's speed. Four targets means more bites at the apple, because we likely only get one or two catches. Ferguson has 12 catches this season. Three-fourths of them have gone for at least 18 yards, and half are 27+ yards. The catches are rare, but when they come, they're big plays. That's why Ferguson's longest reception line of over 10.5 yards at BetMGM (-115) is absurd. In eight games with a catch this season, Ferguson has at least a 19-yard catch in all but one of them! The line should be double that, which means 20+ longest catch is a no brainer at +256 (DraftKings). We'll play 25+ too at +455 (DraftKings), a number he's hit in five of six games with at least three targets. Sprinkle Ferguson touchdown too at +750 (Hard Rock). He's score in two of the last three games, including against Seattle, and tight ends have caught eight of Stafford's last 14 touchdowns, over half. If you play both Ferguson and Parkinson, you get both of what look like the top Rams TEs together at around +225, a bargain price that could see both hit.

There's been a ton of talk all season about LA's 13 personnel — one back and three tight ends. The Rams went away from their 13 personnel in the first Seattle game but used it for 62% of their snaps in the rematch, meaning over half the snaps on the season against Seattle. Then LA went away from 13 again versus Chicago, playing just 9% of its snaps there, while typical TE1 Tyler Higbee played only eight snaps, fourth amongst Rams tight ends. As good as Seattle's defense has been all season, it's been vulnerable against tight ends, ranking top five for most TE receptions allowed and top 10 for TE fantasy points. The one Rams tight end getting consistent snaps right now is Colby Parkinson. He caught the game-winning TD against Carolina and had a similar late target against Chicago, and he's become a real go-to TD threat for Stafford. Parkinson has scored nine touchdowns in his last 11 games, including one against Seattle. His Anytime TD odds are way off at +425 (Hard Rock) and worth a play. And you already know we're going back to the well on Terrance Ferguson. We tried a longest reception escalator against Seattle in the first matchup but Ferguson barely got on the field. Never wrong, just early? Ferguson had a career-high three catches for 33 yards in the rematch and scored a touchdown, and he had a 27-yard catch too. Ferguson is seeing consistent snaps now, about two-thirds of Rams snaps since the start of December, and those targets are getting more consistent too, with at least four in three straight games. That's key because the rookie has caught only 44% of his passes on the season — in part because 21 of his 30 targets are deep passes on the year, 70% of them attacking downfield with Ferguson's speed. Four targets means more bites at the apple, because we likely only get one or two catches. Ferguson has 12 catches this season. Three-fourths of them have gone for at least 18 yards, and half are 27+ yards. The catches are rare, but when they come, they're big plays. That's why Ferguson's longest reception line of over 10.5 yards at BetMGM (-115) is absurd. In eight games with a catch this season, Ferguson has at least a 19-yard catch in all but one of them! The line should be double that, which means 20+ longest catch is a no brainer at +256 (DraftKings). We'll play 25+ too at +455 (DraftKings), a number he's hit in five of six games with at least three targets. Sprinkle Ferguson touchdown too at +750 (Hard Rock). He's score in two of the last three games, including against Seattle, and tight ends have caught eight of Stafford's last 14 touchdowns, over half. If you play both Ferguson and Parkinson, you get both of what look like the top Rams TEs together at around +225, a bargain price that could see both hit.

On the other side of the ball, look for Kyren Williams to be involved as a receiver. Seattle allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs this season but the most RB receptions. Blake Corum had only eight catches all season, so that means Williams, and he's been much more involved in the passing game lately. He averaged just 1.9 catches for 14.8 yards the first 14 games but is up to 3.0/24.4 the last five games, an increase of over 50%. That fits the pattern in the two Seattle games, too. The first fell in that earlier stretch and saw just one Williams catch for five yards on two targets, but he had three catches on six targets for 15 yards in the rematch. Williams has at least 11 receiving yards in all 13 games this season when he catches at least two passes, so we'll use yards as a proxy. Play Kyren Williams over 11.5 receiving yards (BetRivers, -112), and put a portion of your bet on 30+ yards at +425 (bet365), a number he's hit in half his six games with at least three catches. Seattle has allowed a 30-yard RB receiver eight times already this season.

On the other side of the ball, look for Kyren Williams to be involved as a receiver. Seattle allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs this season but the most RB receptions. Blake Corum had only eight catches all season, so that means Williams, and he's been much more involved in the passing game lately. He averaged just 1.9 catches for 14.8 yards the first 14 games but is up to 3.0/24.4 the last five games, an increase of over 50%. That fits the pattern in the two Seattle games, too. The first fell in that earlier stretch and saw just one Williams catch for five yards on two targets, but he had three catches on six targets for 15 yards in the rematch. Williams has at least 11 receiving yards in all 13 games this season when he catches at least two passes, so we'll use yards as a proxy. Play Kyren Williams over 11.5 receiving yards (BetRivers, -112), and put a portion of your bet on 30+ yards at +425 (bet365), a number he's hit in half his six games with at least three catches. Seattle has allowed a 30-yard RB receiver eight times already this season.

Adding small so you can see my lean / analysis: This game is awesome and may well be the actual Super Bowl. Neither team has lost a game by more than a touchdown all season, and this is the league's No. 1 scoring offense against the No. 1 defense. It's the best DVOA matchup in the history of the metric! Both earlier matchups were electric and among the games of the season, and I've had both these teams clearly ahead of the rest of the NFL for half the season now. I've had the Rams firmly ahead of Seattle for most of that stretch, but there's reason to believe that gap is closing. The Rams are 0-2 ATS in the playoffs with a pair of three-point wins, both of which could have been losses. Matthew Stafford played MVP ball all season but hasn't looked the same in the playoffs. Is it the finger injury? The outdoor conditions? Whatever it is, a Rams offense that lapped the field all season long has not looked itself or close in the postseason. Seattle has an enormous rest and health advantage here. The Seahawks played a day earlier than the Rams, and they also played a snoozer and didn't have to expend full energy, and after coming off two full weeks of rest. The Rams never got a week off thanks to that last Seattle loss, and they're now coming off a long, cold overtime game. Only two of the last 20 teams to make the Super Bowl got there without a rest week at some point before. This is the price the Rams pay for blowing that Seattle game — could all that attrition finally catch up to LA now? The first time these teams played back in Week 11, Seattle's offense got exposed. Before that game, the Seahawks had made a living by loading the field with heavy personnel on early downs, baiting the opponent to match with extra men in the box, then beat the opponent with the pass. Seattle led the league in Passing DVOA through 10 games. Then they played the Rams in Week 11, and Chris Shula's defense chose to play tendencies, not personnel. They stuck with light boxes and a ton of defensive backs in zone, and Sam Darnold was terrible, throwing four interceptions in the loss. From that game forward, with other opponents copying the Rams and refusing to match heavy, Seattle's passing attack plummeted all the way to 25th in DVOA, bottom quarter of the league. The rushing attack improved from 21st to 6th during that stretch, and that seems good for the run-heaviest team in the league, but it's because opponents are content shutting down the pass instead. The Rams rank third in EPA per play against the run and should hold their own against Seattle even without loading up the box, especially with Zach Charbonnet missing behind Kenneth Walker. LA can also make life miserable for Sam Darnold. The Rams rank top-five in pressure rate and should make Darnold uncomfortable all game. They also play very heavy zone, and Darnold is below league average against zone, compared to top five against man. He threw six interceptions in the two Rams games this season — compared to eight against everyone else all season! Even as the 1-seed, Seattle had the second-most giveaways in the NFL this season. They had 10 turnovers in their three losses. If Seattle can give Darnold time, though, there's reason to believe Seattle can find some room to pass. The Rams pass defense has fallen apart over the past couple months, and the corners are a clear weak spot. The linebackers may be too, especially against Seattle's elite playaction. The Seahawks can find some explosive passes down the field against this defense. On the other side of the ball, we get the elite Rams offense against the elite Seahawks defense — but only one of those units has played like that of late. The Rams offense has looked mostly average, and a lot of that is on Stafford's shoulders. Whether it's an injury or the outdoors conditions, this unit just hasn't looked in rhythm — maybe since that loss to Seattle. The Rams have run the ball well all season but sport one of the league's highest passing rates and have abandoned the run far too quickly against both the Panthers and Bears this postseason. Seattle's run defense is outstanding even with so many defensive backs typically on the field. The Seahawks are elite against playaction and motion, all those Sean McVay bells and whistles. They're also the second-best defense in the league limiting explosive plays, so the Rams may not find many chunk plays. They did put up almost 600 yards against Seattle in the last meeting though, even without Davante Adams, and the Rams offensive line is a significant strength and finally healthy now. Stafford has yet to be sacked in three games against Mike Macdonald's Seahawks defense, and if he gets time, he's going find Adams and Puka Nacua eventually. Any angle in this game has a counter angle, and the truth is that we may not know right now just how much we should believe in either offense, nor in the Rams defense. We do know Seattle's defense is great, and we also know the Seahawks will have a massive special teams advantage. Watch starting field position in particular, which the Rams have fallen off in a huge way without K Joshua Karty, and where Seattle is best in the league. Those extra 10 or 15 yards of field position drive after drive add up, and in a game those close, special teams could be the difference. Remember, 1 seeds in the Conference Championship are 21-5 SU since 2006 and 5-1 as anything under a field goal favorite. The No. 1 scoring offense has met the No. 1 defense in the Conference Championship or later eight times since the merger. The defense has come out on top, going 7-1 SU in those matchups. This has also been a great round to back the favorite in a division matchup, with favorites 5-0 SU over the past two decades. There's also ongoing concern about the Rams playing outdoors in a tough environment. Dome teams playing outdoors in the playoffs are 20-31-1 ATS (39%) the last couple decades, with LA 0-2 in that spot this postseason, and it gets worse. Indoor teams playing the Conference Championship outdoors on the road are an ugly 0-15 SU since the merger. This is such a close matchup that those little edges — Seattle's special teams, its home-field advantage where the Seahawks have won 11 straight playoffs games with fans in the stands, and the rest and health advantages — might just be the difference. I thought the Rams were the better team in the regular season, but I think this line is about right given the spot. I'd be tempted to nibble Rams +3 if available at the key number but will otherwise let our preseason +7000 Seahawks Super Bowl ticket ride — Seattle is the favorite after all.

The two OPOY favorites face off here, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a much easier matchup than Puka Nacua. The Seahawks rank first by DVOA against WR1s but the Rams are just below league average. JSN found plenty of room against LA in the previous two matchups, racking up 9/105 and 8/96 on 25 targets. He's had at least seven catches in 12-of-18 games, but it gets better. Four of those six times with six or fewer catches came in games Seattle won by 21 or more, like last week. He's had at least seven catches in 10 of Seattle's 12 other games. This shouldn't be a blowout, and it's hard to see the Rams corners shutting JSN down. Play over 6.5 receptions at BetMGM (-105).

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

If you remove Week 4, where he left the game early, Lawrence has only cleared this number in 6 of 16 games this season. He’s also been fairly opponent-dependent. He’s cleared this in 4 of 8 matchups against teams that rank in the top half of the league in tackle opportunities for EDGE rushers, but only 2 of 8 against teams that rank in the bottom half. The Rams rank dead last in that metric, and by a fairly wide margin. There are a few reasons for that. Matthew Stafford is tough to sack, having been sacked just 23 times, and he rarely scrambles. Most of his dropbacks end in pass attempts, which are the plays with the lowest chance of an edge rusher mixing in on a tackle. The Rams also use a lot of heavy personnel, sometimes with three tight ends on the field, which can crowd the line of scrimmage and allow other positions to mix in more. Both Blake Corum and Kyren Williams run inside at a very high rate, which funnels tackles toward the interior defensive line, and both rank top three in success rate, so not many of their runs get stuffed for minimal gains, which is where EDGE rushers tend to show up more often. As a result, the Rams tend to funnel tackles to corners and safeties. Sure enough, Lawrence has had a 2-tackle game and a 9-tackle game against the Rams. That 9-tackle outburst was by far his highest total in a game this season. Those types of things can happen in tackle markets, especially when a player is mixing in on a lot of 4–5 yard runs like he did against Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Tackles, like every stat, come with game-to-game variance based on opportunity. This will be Lawrence’s third matchup against the Rams, and given how few tackle opportunities they typically provide to EDGE rushers, I’m expecting his tackle rate to come back down to earth here. I’m hoping that 9-tackle game was simply an outlier, both for Lawrence and for the Rams allowing an opposing EDGE rusher to nearly reach double-digit tackles. I’m projecting him closer to 3.1 tackles, with around a 63% chance he stays under 3.5.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Shaheed has struggled to make much of an impact in Seattle’s passing attack since being traded midseason by the Saints. In New Orleans, he operated as the clear No. 2 WR behind Chris Olave. In Seattle, he’s typically been the No. 3 WR behind JSN and Cooper Kupp. JSN commands a massive target share, which has capped Shaheed’s upside in this offense, and Shaheed has also been running routes on only about 65% of dropbacks most weeks. With backup TE Elijah Arroyo returning this week and Seattle dealing with multiple injuries at LT, I could see them using more 2TE or heavier personnel looks, which is when Shaheed tends to come off the field. Backup RB Zach Charbonnet is also out, which could lead to Seattle designing a few more rush attempts for Shaheed, as he’s usually good for 1–2 carries per game. Shaheed has a wide range of outcomes, as he can clear this number with a single catch and could easily go for 80+ yards if he breaks a long one. That’s always the risk when fading such an explosive player. But he now has as many return TDs (2) over the last four games as he does receptions (2), and we’ve been seeing him hit his floor at a much higher rate recently. I’m projecting his median closer to 17.5 yards, with around a 62% chance he stays under 24.5. If he does clear this, it’ll likely be by a lot. That’s why I’m much more comfortable fading him in this market, where his median outcome is much lower. When I invest in Shaheed overs, I usually prefer his alt yardage lines. Shaheed has been one of my favorite players over the years because he often comes through when I’m on his over(s), but this is probably the first time I’ve actually faded him. Based on his recent usage, that’s where I think the play is. He can still make impact plays in the run or return game, just hopefully not in the passing game.

Kenneth Walker III Longest Rush over 16.5 yards (-118 Caesars, -120 at FD/DK) In 18 games this year (including the playoffs), Walker's median longest rush has been 17.5 yards and he's cleared 16.5 in exactly half his games. However, that was while splitting a backfield with Zach Charbonnet who is now out with a torn ACL, meaning KWIII should get the full load of carries, which is reflected in his rushing attempt line of 19.5. That attempts line is more than he's had all season (maximum of 19 in a game), so he'll like have extra opportunities to clear this prop than nearly all the rest of his games, making his season-long median a bit low. In fact, four of his five lowest volume games also produced four of his five lowest longest gain games. When looking at 13 games where he cleared 11+ rushing attempts, his median longest rush jumps to 20, and two of those games came against these very Los Angeles Rams. See, the Rams ordinarily would be a tough matchup, but 42.1% of Walker's rushing attempts have been outside zone runs where the Rams run defense has been weakeast, ranking slightly worse than league average in preventing explosive plays and allowing the seventh-longest yards per carry on these plays. Walker's next most utilized run is inside zone runs, where he has a whopping 14.6% explosive run rate, which is double the next best qualified rusher, D'Andre Swift at 7.3%, so while the Rams have done well shutting this down, we'd expect Walker to still break a long one at an above average rate. This is a hefty number to clear, but the extra volume combined with a relatively neutral matchup in which he's already cleared this number twice is the tipping point that pushes me over.

Pass the Prop best bet

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@Stuckey2 https://myaction.app/iZ3epALea0b

@BKPicks https://myaction.app/iZ3epALea0b

@BKPicks https://myaction.app/iZ3epALea0b

Bought this to 3 at a few places

Add 1u

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All signs point to Seattle winning this game. They’ve matched up well with LA this season, they look like the best team among the remaining contenders, and they have a distinct rest advantage here. Rams on their 3rd straight road game, off an OT game in freezing cold conditions, these situations have not been kind to teams over recent history. Seattle has been money at home in the playoffs historically as well. Debated laying the 2.5 but I’m comfortable paying up to leave spread out of this one, especially after finding the ML at a reasonable price as I was shopping around.