The Vikings (14-3) and Rams (10-7) play tonight in the NFL Wild Card Round. Kickoff from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN.
My Vikings vs. Rams prediction and NFL pick for tonight's matchup is on the spread, which has the Vikings favored by 2.5 points over the Rams. The game total is over/under 47.5 points scored, while Minnesota is -148 and Los Angeles +124 to win outright on the moneyline.
Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson both were off in a Week 18 loss to the Lions that won Detroit the NFC North and sent the Vikings to this game. They'll now face a red-hot Rams team that went from 1-4 to division champions, led by offensive stars Matt Stafford, Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
Vikings vs. Rams Odds, Prediction
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 47.5 -112o / -108u | -148 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 47.5 -112o / -108u | +124 |
- Vikings vs. Rams spread: Vikings -2.5
- Vikings vs. Rams over/under: 47.5 total points
- Vikings vs. Rams moneyline: Vikings -148, Rams +124
Over/Under
I project this total at 48, so I'm close enough to the market that I'll pass on betting either side of the total.
Against the Spread
I think the Rams should be favored here, even though the location moved from SoFi Stadium to Arizona, so I'll take the 2.5 points.
My Pick: Rams +2.5 (-105)
Vikings vs. Rams Betting Preview
- The Rams have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games.
- The UNDER has hit in 3 of the Rams’ last 4 games.
- The Vikings have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games.
- The UNDER has hit in 3 of the Vikings’ last 6 games.
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- 51% of bets and 52% of money on the spread are on the Rams.
- 75% of bets and 76% of money on the total are on the OVER.
- 72% of bets and 75% of money on the moneyline are on the Vikings.
Vikings vs. Rams NFL Wild Card Picks
The first matchup between these teams earlier this season — Week 8; Oct. 24 — was not a great one for the Vikings. They played the Lions on Sunday and then traveled across the country to play the Rams on Thursday Night Football.
Also, it was a big surprise that Puka Nacua played in that game after not practicing for more than a month. Even Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores said the team wasn’t prepared for Nacua and didn’t have time to change his game plan. Minnesota didn’t blitz as much as usual and struggled to contain Nacua and the Rams offense.
Part of trying to crack the code of every game is a lot about why coaching is so important, specifically coordinators who like to throw curveballs. Sometimes, coaches save their best stuff for the playoffs.
Flores will likely have his defense looking very different this time around, but Rams head coach Sean McVay likely will have his offense operating differently as well.
A big part of this pick is that I don’t believe in the Vikings secondary. In order for that unit to perform well, they have to get pressure up front.
In this matchup, Matthew Stafford isn’t particularly mobile, so I’m curious to see if Minnesota blitzes and plays a lot of man coverage or whether it plays zone and potentially get picked apart.
The Rams have shown they can get pressure on the opposing quarterback, led by likely NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse. I think that will be a big key against Sam Darnold, who struggled last week in Detroit when under pressure. It wouldn’t shock me if Darnold was a bit shaken after that performance entering a playoff atmosphere that he is not used to.
It’s also worth noting that Vikings kicker Will Reichard missed multiple kicks last week and has struggled down the stretch, while Rams rookie kicker Joshua Karty has been trending upward as the season has progressed.
At the end of the day, I am taking the "home" underdog. I think the Rams, especially Stafford, will benefit from what was essentially a bye week last week against the Seahawks.
Los Angeles ended the season with nine wins in 12 games, and one of those losses was in Week 18 when Jimmy Garoppolo played well and nearly beat the Seahawks' starters alongside the Rams’ backups.
The Rams actually finished the season with a better Weighted DVOA than the Vikings, which takes recent performances more into account than the season-long metric. I actually make Los Angeles a slight favorite here.
My Pick: Rams +2.5 | Bet to +1.5
