We have you covered with 7 NFL player prop picks for the Week 15 Sunday afternoon slate of games.
Our experts have picks for 5 games, including the biggest of the slate in Bills vs. Lions. We have 2 picks on Jameis Winston overs, as well as 3 anytime touchdown scorers for the early slate.
Let's dig into our NFL props for this week's Sunday slate.
NFL Picks: Player Props
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Dolphins vs. Texans
Nico Collins Anytime TD Scorer (+135)
Nico Collins has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL this season when healthy, and he has been a great bet in the touchdown scorer market. In 7 1/2 games played this season, Collins has four touchdowns — he has also had multiple potential touchdowns called back by penalty.
Here, Collins gets a good matchup against a Dolphins team with a below-average pass defense. Specifically to this pick, Miami is one of the worst teams in the league in defending opposing WR1s.
The total in this game is 46.5 and considering how well the Dolphins have played recently, it won't surprise me to see it go over. I have Collins as having around a 50% chance of scoring, making this a great bet at plus money.
Pick: Nico Collins Anytime TD Scorer (+135)
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Browns vs. Chiefs
Jameis Winston Over 21.5 Completions (+100)
At this point, I'm pretty much just hitting the over on Jameis Winston's completions and attempts every week. The Browns continue to let him sling the ball all game, with him throwing the ball 40+ times in every game he's started except for the snow game in Pittsburgh.
The Browns have thrown the ball at the highest rate in the league with Winston under center, and the Chiefs have forced teams to throw at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL.
Winston has hit the over at this number in five of six starts this season and will likely be trailing in this game, which should force a passing game script. The Chiefs also have a better rush defense than against the pass, and the Browns are struggling to get anything going on the ground lately.
Expect Winston and the Browns to be very pass-heavy this week in Kansas City.
Pick: Jameis Winston Over 21.5 Completions (+100)
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Browns vs. Chiefs
Jameis Winston Over 239.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Winston's passing yards prop is my preferred way to back him because of Kansas City's recent defensive struggles. I don't mind his pass attempts or completions prop, but I'm a bit concerned about play volume. The Chiefs' methodical offense has meant fewer opportunities for their opponents this season with Kansas City tied for the NFL lead in allowing the fewest plays per game.
When Cleveland does have the ball, it'll be chucking it. The Browns are third in the league in neutral pass rate (63.3%) and in Winston's six starts, that number has held steady at 62.5%. If you take out the snow game against Pittsburgh, it's 64.8%. Winston has attempted at least 41 passes in every game except that Steelers game.
The Chiefs' defense is 27th in EPA/play over the past four weeks and has allowed the 10th-highest dropback EPA/play in that stretch. Prior to Week 11, Kansas City ranked 11th in EPA/play and had allowed the 13th-lowest dropback EPA/play.
Bryce Young and Aidan O'Connell combined for over 600 passing yards against Kansas City. The Chiefs did hold Justin Herbert in check last week, but he still completed 70% of his passes for only the third time this season. Kansas City is so desperate in the secondary that they just brought CB Steven Nelson back out of retirement. With all due respect to Nelson, his prime was back in 2018. He bounced around the league after his Chiefs tenure before hanging it up in the offseason. It's hard to imagine Nelson can revive this pass defense.
Pick: Jameis Winston Over 239.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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Commanders vs. Saints
Brian Robinson Jr. Anytime TD Scorer (-135)
By Sam Farley
The Saints have hemorrhaged rushing touchdowns this season. They've given up 16 already this season, including seven in the past six weeks. Even the Giants' terrible offense get one last week.
Step forward Brian Robinson Jr., who has scored eight times in 10 games this season and has seen a high volume of 16+ carries in three of his past four games.
I'll play Robinson to find the end zone on the road in a game that should see the Commanders feature a run-heavy approach as 7.5-point favorites.
Pick: Brian Robinson Jr. Anytime TD Scorer (-135)
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Buccaneers vs. Chargers
Mike Evans Anytime TD Scorer (+150)
The matchup is a tough one, but the odds on Mike Evans are too good to pass up.
Evans is having another good season with seven touchdowns in 10 games, and he has become the go-to guy to an even higher degree since Chris Godwin suffered his season-ending injury.
The Chargers defense has been good this season, but we've seen the Bucs rely heavily on Evans all year. Tampa Bay is averaging 29 points per game with Evans in the lineup.
If Evans plays, the odds here are simply far too high.
Pick: Mike Evans Anytime TD Scorer (+150)
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Bills vs. Lions
Khalil Shakir 50+ Receiving Yards (-140)
By Sam Farley
This season we've really seen Khalil Shakir develop into a consistent mover of the chains for the Bills and he's now a key part of the offense.
As impressive as the Lions defense is, this is a guy who Josh Allen leans on and will continue to do so on Sunday. Shakir has hit 50 receiving yards in nine of 12 games this season and put up 106 yards (and a touchdown) in last week's shootout with the Rams.
In a game that has "potential Super Bowl preview" written all over it, I'm expecting Allen to lean on his most reliable target in a hostile atmosphere.
Pick: Khalil Shakir 50+ Receiving Yards (-140)
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Bills vs. Lions
Jameson Williams Anytime TD Scorer (+240)
This could be the game of the year and a Super Bowl preview. With a 54.5 implied total and a 2.5-point spread, I expect a lot of touchdowns to be scored.
Jameson Williams is having a good season and when he gets the necessary touches, he's been great. The Bills have been a good defense this season, but they just gave up 44 points to the Rams last week. We could see Buffalo struggle again here.
The Bills have been one of the worst teams in the league defending opposing WR2s, ranking 29th according to DVOA. Buffalo was crushed by both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp last week, as well.
Williams doesn't get a ton of red-zone work, but he's one of the best deep threats in the NFL. He has a much better chance of finding the end zone than his +240 indicates.
Pick: Jameson Williams Anytime TD Scorer (+240)
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