I'm targeting three NFL picks on Sunday of Week 13, including predictions for Jaguars vs Titans, Falcons vs Jets, and Vikings vs Seahawks.
Continue below for my expert NFL picks and analysis for the 13th Sunday of the season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Week 13 Predictions & Spread Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jaguars vs Titans
According to our Bet Labs data, favorites since 2003 facing underdogs with a winning percentage of 12.5% or less in the second half of the season 80-112-3 (41.7%) ATS.
Given the Jaguars’ uneven play on the road and the trajectory of the two quarterbacks involved, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Jaguars are the next casualty.
In five true road games, the Jaguars have seen a 9.8-point drop-off in point differential and a 51-yard drop-off in total yardage differential – and that’s not even counting the 35-7 shellacking they received from the Rams overseas.
On the road, the Jaguars suffered losses to Jake Browning and Davis Mills, and needed overtime to beat Geno Smith and the Raiders by one, and they beat Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals by three.
Their best road performance was at San Francisco, where they won by just five, despite holding a 4-0 turnover edge and getting an 87-yard punt return touchdown from Parker Washington.
Things won’t get any easier this weekend, as it will be the Jaguars' second straight road game and fourth in the past five weeks, while Tennessee has been home for three straight.
Cam Ward has been trending upward since Brian Callahan was fired after six weeks, gaining +0.168 EPA per play, +6.2% in success rate, and +5.6% in Completion Percentage Over Expectation.
Over that same span, Ward has been the better of the two quarterbacks in terms of both EPA and CPO.
- EPA/Play Since Week 7: Ward -0.05, Lawrence -0.09
- CPO Since Week 7: Ward -1.1%, Lawrence -6.7%
While Brian Thomas coming back looks good on the surface, he is the worst of the Jaguars’ starting skill players and a bottom-four wide receiver in terms of receiving success rate (41.7%) and passer rating when targeted (71.5).
Pick: Titans +6
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Falcons vs Jets
The Falcons got lucky to win by 14 last week, with the Saints missing field goals from 38 and 47 and netting three points across two drives that reached the Atlanta 1-yard-line.
Tyrod Taylor has been better than Kirk Cousins in EPA per dropback (-0.03 vs. -0.15), success rate (44.7% vs. 42.9%), and CPOE (+0.7% vs. -3.2%).
This will also be Cousins’ first start outdoors, where his age and lack of mobility could be more of a factor.
He will be without Drake London, who despite missing two games has accounted for 33.3% of Falcons receiving yardage.
On the road, London has been responsible for 40% of their TDs from scrimmage.
Per our Action Labs data, non-divisional matchups outdoors in the third quarter of the season (9-12th game) featuring a favorite with a winning percentage below 55% and an underdog below 20% has seen the ‘dog pull off the outright upset over half of the time (25-23, 52%).
Pick: Jets +2.5
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Vikings vs Seahawks
Among 41 quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks, J.J. McCarthy ranks dead last in EPA per dropback at -0.294, – a mark which is more than twice as bad as second-worst (0.14).
Put another way: Think of all the bad quarterback play we’ve seen this year from the likes of Dillon Gabriel, Justin Fields, Jake Browning, Geno Smith, Cam Ward, Tyler Shough, etc. – and then consider that on a per-play basis, McCarthy was at least twice as bad as every single one of those guys.
McCarthy has been sub-replacement-level – worse than the baseline you’d plug in for an unproven, undrafted free agent such as, say, Max Brosmer.
I’ve said half-jokingly all year that Brosmer is the best quarterback on the roster, but even if he’s technically not a better option than Carson Wentz, who led them to a respectable 2-3 record and +1.2 point differential, chances are he’s better than McCarthy.
Brosmer has long been sought after by Kevin O’Connell and passed the eye test in preseason, tying for the lead among all preseason passers with five big-time throws, so it’s highly possible he is a significant upgrade.
Despite McCarthy hemorrhaging EPA, the Vikings were fairly competitive most of the time, with a point differential of -6.2.
Taking McCarthy’s 34.5 dropbacks per game and instead giving them to some like Dillon Gabriel (-0.113 EPA/DB), for instance, would net the Vikings +6.24 EPA per game – enough to make them a .500 team.
On the other side of the ball, scheme is what tends to beat Sam Darnold, so Brian Flores’ familiarity with him could work in favor of Minnesota.
Per our Action Labs data, underdogs off a losing streak of three games are 238-172-11 (58%) ATS since 2003 and 10-7 (59%) ATS this season.
Also per Action Labs, ‘dogs since 2003 that are listed +11 or more with a total of 46 or less against another team in the same conference are 136-88-1 (61%).
Pick: Vikings +11.5
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