I'm targeting four NFL picks on Sunday of Week 14, including predictions for Steelers vs Ravens, Dolphins vs Jets, and Colts vs Jaguars.
Continue below for my expert NFL picks and analysis for the 14th Sunday of the season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Week 14 Predictions & Spread Picks
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Steelers vs Ravens
Steelers +6
According to our Action Labs data, the 'dog in Steelers-Ravens since Tomlin and Harbaugh began facing off is 24-7-3 (77.4%) ATS for a 45.2% ROI.
In a matchup featuring two broken offenses, it will be tough for either team to build a margin, so I expect that trend to prevail again.
The Steelers are 13th in DVOA while the Ravens are 18th. While the Ravens offensive metrics are skewed downward because of three missed starts by Lamar Jackson, the current version of Jackson is not enough to vault the Ravens as far past the Steelers as the line indicates.
Over his past four starts, Jackson is completing 56.0% of his passes and averaging 5.99 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt, with one touchdown and three interceptions, while rushing for just 84 yards at 3.2 yards per carry.
The Steelers have always done a good job of limiting Jackson as a rusher, holding him to 16.3 yards per game below his career average.
Per Action Labs, Jackson is 26-9 (74%) ATS as either a dog or short favorite -3 or less, and 30-37-1 (45%) ATS when favored by -3.5 or more.
Under 43.5
Lamar Jackson has struggled as a passer over the last month, completing 56.0% of his passes and averaging 5.99 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt.
That could matter even more than usual with injuries limiting Jackson as a rusher and a matchup with a Steelers defense that has limited him to 16.3 yards below his career rushing average in eight career meetings.
Aaron Rodgers’ age and declining health has forced them to become a dink-and-dunk offense.
Rodgers is tied for the lowest aDOT among qualified passers (6.4) and has the fifth-lowest time to throw, per PFF.
Per Action Labs, the under in Steelers' road games under Mike Tomlin is 60-34-1 (64%) since 2014, covering by 2.1 points per game.
Pick: Steelers +6, Under 43.5
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Dolphins vs Jets
The Jets continue to be underdogs versus similarly sub-par teams.
The Jets are 26th in DVOA while Miami is 23rd, but the Jets get a boost on offense with Tyrod Taylor starting in place of Justin Fields.
The Jets have covered in all three of Taylor’s starts, and the veteran is 36-21-4 (63%) ATS all-time, including 24-12 (67%) ATS as a ‘dog.
The Dolphins have a -0.5 average point differential at home, but it falls to -7.8 on the road.
Meanwhile, the Jets have gone 3-2 after an 0-7 start, including 2-0 in their last two at home.
Pick: Jets +2.5
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Colts vs Jaguars
This is only the second game since Week 7 for the Jags at home, where they have been a much better team.
The Jaguars are 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS with a +9.4 point differential and +9.7 ATS differential at home compared to 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS with a +3.3 point differential and +2.8 ATS differential on the road.
Three of the Colts four losses have come on the road, and going down to humid Jacksonville has always given them fits.
Since 2015, the Colts are 1-8 (11.1%) ATS with a -17.72 average ATS differential.
Perhaps due to playing through a broken fibula, Daniel Jones is trending downward.
- First eight games: 7-1 SU/ATS, 13 pass TD, 3 INT, 4 rush TD, 7 turnover-worthy plays
- Last four games: 1-3 SU.ATS 6 pass TD, 4 INT, 1 rush TD, 10 turnover-worthy plays
Pick: Jaguars +1.5
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