We're back with NFL PrizePicks and Underdog plays for tonight's NFL preseason slate.
Let's get into the Friday night preseason slate.
Brown vs Panthers
Dylan Sampson
More Than 25.5 Rushing Yards (6)
With Quinshon Judkins’ status still up in the air, Sampson likely opens as the Browns’ No. 2 back to start the season. This is a great spot to get the rookie an extended look. He slipped to the 4th round partly because teams had trouble evaluating him coming out of Tennessee’s gimmicky offense, where he rarely faced stacked boxes. That adjustment will matter more in the regular season than in the preseason, where he’ll get to run against 2nd- and 3rd-string vanilla defenses. I have him projected closer to 29.5 yards.
Xavier Legette
Less Than 13.5 Receiving Yards (8)
The Panthers' starters should only be out there for 1–2 series, and Legette will likely be part of that group with a short leash. Target competition will be tougher with 1st-round pick Tetairoa McMillan in the mix, and I expect Bryce Young to try to feed his new weapon in their brief time together. Adam Thielen should also be active, further limiting Legette’s chances for 2+ catches in limited action.
Most likely outcome: one catch with a median closer to 10.5 yards. There’s also a decent chance he runs just 5–6 routes and draws zero or one target. Sure, he could clear this on a single catch, but preseason props aren’t for the faint of heart and historically these preseason low-route spots have been profitable to fade. I’ll take the under.
Lions vs Falcons
Isaac TeSlaa
More Than 27.5 Receiving Yards (7)
TeSlaa shined in the Hall of Fame game with two catches for 46 yards and could push for the Lions’ No. 3 receiver role sooner rather than later. With Detroit’s receiver room looking thin, I expect they’ll give TeSlaa more work tonight since he might not see much early season playing time. If he puts together another strong outing, they could even bubble wrap him for the rest of the preseason (similar to how the Ravens handled Isaiah Likely as a rookie). I have him projected closer to 34.5 yards.
Hendon Hooker
More Than 16.5 Rushing Yards (8)
Hooker is expected to play the entire first half with Kyle Allen taking the second, although Dan Campbell hinted he might get a “load” … which could mean a couple series into the 3rd quarter. Even if it’s just the first half, his rushing upside makes this appealing. Hooker scrambled at a high rate last preseason and did so again in the Hall of Fame game, taking off three times (for nine yards) on just 11 dropbacks. Given how often he runs and the chance he plays a bit into the second half, 16.5 feels a touch low, especially as he'll likely have better efficiency on those scrambles going forward. One thing to note, I would probably avoid having TeSlaa and Hooker props in the same pick pack if you can help it as there is a bit of reverse correlation there.
Casey Washington
Less Than 21.5 Receiving Yards (9)
With Darnell Mooney’s Week 1 status in doubt, Washington might open as the third receiver tonight. I expect him to start, but with a short leash. Last preseason, he led the team in routes (63), yet only produced 58 yards (a 0.92 YPRR), so his volume inflated his numbers. This time, with less playing time and Easton Stick (not Michael Penix or Kirk Cousins) throwing to him, his floor is much lower. I'm projecting him closer to 15.5 yards.
Commander vs Patriots
Ja'Lynn Polk
Less Than 23.5 Receiving Yards (9)
Polk’s rookie year was rough, and while a bounce-back is possible, this number feels a bit high given the likely crowd at receiver tonight. In preseason, it’s tough to project most receiver medians above 20.5 yards since two catches can still land under. Polk should get most of his run with Josh Dobbs, but if Ben Wooldridge checks in sooner than expected, that could limit Polk's upside. There are a wide range of outcomes, but I have Polk's median closer to 17.5.
