NFL Week 13 features a full 16-game slate again, and we already had three of them on Thanksgiving, so there will be a shorter menu to pick from this weekend.
For my Week 13 picks, we have spread and moneyline bets, a receiving yards prop for star wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, plus first quarter and first half predictions, among others.
Let's get to my NFL Week 13 picks and predictions!
NFL Week 13 Predictions
Bills vs Steelers Spread/Moneyline Picks
At first glance, this looks like a great bounce-back spot for the Bills.
Buffalo is coming off extra rest after mainly getting shut down by the Texans in a surprising Thursday night loss, while the inconsistent Steelers have an ailing Aaron Rodgers.
Dig a little deeper, though, and this is a clear Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot.
From Week 5 onward in his career, Tomlin and his Steelers are an incredible 52-25-2 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs, covering 68% of the time. That trend is even stronger at home, after a loss, and as a 'dog of a touchdown or less — check, check, and check.
Home is key, because it's time we had a real conversation about the road version of the Bills.
Since the start of 2023, Buffalo is 11-12 straight up (SU) on the road, a losing record for this presumed Super Bowl contender juggernaut.
Worse yet, check out the QBs those 11 wins came against: Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa (twice), Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Sam Howell, and Easton Stick — a pretty grim list by the end.
Buffalo has played five road games this year. The Bills comfortably defeated outmatched Jets and Panthers squads but lost somewhat convincingly in Atlanta, Miami and Houston. Buffalo's offense is the league's best at home by DVOA, but is league average on the road.
The road conditions matter, too. This game expects winds in the 40s with a good chance of precipitation. That likely means more emphasis on the run game, which should favor Buffalo with its power rushing attack — but it may not.
Buffalo is much better running inside by EPA per play, but Pittsburgh's gettable run defense is actually top 10 against inside runs versus bottom five outside.
And speaking of gettable, have you seen Buffalo's run defense? It's the worst one in the league outside of the Giants, 31st by DVOA and 30th in EPA per play — and the Steelers run the ball well, early and often, with Kenneth Gainwell now joining Jaylen Warren as serious weapons.
The Bills also play far better against 11 (base) personnel, top five by EPA, but the Steelers play the least 11 in the league. Pittsburgh does play a ton of 12 and 21 personnel, and Buffalo drops all the way to the bottom five in defending them.
Buffalo's defense is built to pressure the quarterback and force short passes, but Aaron Rodgers is excellent at getting the ball out quickly to avoid pressure, and the Steelers pass short more than any team in the league. The matchup is simply all wrong for Sean McDermott's defense.
Both teams leaning into the run in ugly weather typically shortens the game and gives the underdog a better shot, and road unders have been trendy for Josh Allen and McDermott.
This is also a great bounce-back spot for Pittsburgh's defense, with the Steelers 41-17-2 ATS (71%) immediately after allowing more than 28 points.
In the end, this line is too high for the way Buffalo is playing. I'd price it much closer to a coin flip.
In Tomlin's career, from Week 5 forward, his teams as home underdogs of seven or less are an awesome 19-5-1 ATS, covering 79% of the time by just over a touchdown a game (7.1).
This is a Steelers spot all the way. Play Pittsburgh +4.5 above the key number and give the Steelers a shot to win at +175 on the moneyline too, both at BetRivers.
Pick: Steelers +4.5 and +175 ML
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Falcons vs Jets Spread/Alt Spread Picks
This one is all about the matchups.
This is one of many windy games this weekend, and it should be extremely run-heavy by both teams' design. That explains the low total below 40, and it immediately puts the underdog in play.
The Jets have a monster advantage on special teams. They have the best unit in the league by DVOA, while the Falcons rank in the bottom five, and those little edges matter even more in windy conditions and a low-scoring game where a single kick could make the difference.
In a run-heavy game, this one sets up an advantage for the Jets.
New York's run defense is its best strength, and it's even better against outside runs. Atlanta runs outside more than any team in the league and, despite its talent, has been relatively average running the ball. That looks like a push.
Atlanta's defense grades out as the best unit on the field, but most of that positive is the pass defense. The run defense ranks in the bottom quarter of the league, and that's not the right matchup against a Jets offense that prefers to run first, run again, then run some more.
The switch to QB Tyrod Taylor is also significant. The Falcons bring huge, speedy pressure, and the Jets have allowed plenty of pressure this season. Taylor will need to get the ball out quickly — something Justin Fields is never really able to do.
Taylor is 23-12-3 ATS as an underdog (66%), so this is a good spot to back him. Since 2018, underdogs of four or fewer in games with a total below 42 are 134-105-7 ATS, covering 56% of the time.
This game sets up perfectly to suit New York's biggest strengths — run the ball, stop the run, and win on special teams' margins. The Jets have been within one score in the fourth quarter in nine of 11 games, fighting hard all season.
New York is the side here, though at +2.5 juiced towards the Falcons, there's a good chance you can wait and get Jets +3. I make New York the favorites, so give me the Jets.
And wouldn't it just be so J-E-T-S to do all this and blow the draft pick anyway?
The Jets have only two wins, with just the Titans "ahead" in the draft order, but with the Falcons, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Saints up next, New York might accidentally blow the tank.
Over the last decade, 134 home underdogs of under three points have won their games outright; 82 of them won by at least seven points. That's 61% of those short home 'dogs that end up winning comfortably!
Six of New York's seven wins since the start of last season are by seven or more, too. Skip the moneyline and get aggressive by playing an alternate line, Jets -6.5 to win by a touchdown at +288 (bet365).
Pick: Jets +2.5 & Alt Spread -6.5
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Texans vs Colts 1st Quarter Spread Pick
On a relatively blah Sunday slate with so many fun games over the holidays, this one rises to the top.
Suddenly, the Colts find themselves in the heat of a division battle, just a game up on the Jaguars and two up on the Texans, with a pair of matchups against both rivals still to come.
The Texans are riding high after beating Buffalo to save their season, and they enter this game on extra rest, finally with C.J. Stroud back in the lineup.
Houston has won only one of its last six against the Colts, but all but one of those games finished within four points.
The Colts defense matches up pretty well with a relatively vanilla Texans offense. Indy is excellent defending 11 personnel, better in single-high, and elite against inside runs, matching all of Houston's tendencies.
It's hard to trust QB Daniel Jones against this Texans defense, but if you're going to do it, it should probably come in those early scripted Shane Steichen plays.
The Colts are actually a top-five defense in the first quarter by DVOA as well, with Houston in the bottom 10, before both units revert in the opposite direction the rest of the game. That's coaching and preparation.
I'm playing the Colts in just the first quarter.
Indianapolis is 8-3 ATS in the first quarter on the season, second only to the Giants, while the Texans are 1-3 ATS as first-quarter underdogs.
The first quarter is a chance to attack those scripted plays early, and it also means taking advantage of presumed rust from Stroud after a long time away. Additionally, it lets us avoid any late collapse for a Colts defense that was on the field for 91 plays against the Chiefs on Sunday.
You can play a first-quarter moneyline if you prefer at -148 (DraftKings), which returns your bet with a tie.
I'll take the risk for a much better payout and play Colts -0.5 in the first quarter at +114. We'll need the win, so let's hope the Colts get it.
Pick: Colts 1st Quarter -0.5
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Saints vs Dolphins 1st Half Prediction
This is yet another windy game, and it's a game where the Saints are sorely lacking weapons.
New Orleans officially waived Brandin Cooks, and now Alvin Kamara is hurt, leaving the Saints without their top two running backs and meaning far too many touches for tight end Taysom Hill.
Remember when we made QB Tyler Shough a favorite last week? The Raiders, too? Fun times.
Miami comes in rested off its bye week, and I like the Dolphins' full game as well, but prefer the first-half line.
Both teams are better on defense right now. That's not saying much for the Saints with their awful offense, but it might be surprising for Miami.
The Dolphins have ranked in the top quarter of the league defensively by DVOA over the last six weeks, including best in the league against the run. It'll be on Shough's shoulders.
Miami has ranked near the bottom of the league against short passes and in allowing explosives this season, but the Saints rank dead last in both areas. New Orleans just may not be able to hurt Miami's weak spots.
The Dolphins also have a monster special teams advantage with the Saints near the worst in the league, a great hidden advantage that matters even more in windy conditions.
The Saints defense has been league-average at home this season, but worse on the road, bottom quarter of the league. It's also been worse in the first half, ranking bottom 10 in DVOA versus top 10 in the second half.
Miami's offense has been better early, above average by DVOA, although in the bottom five in the second half.
These are the games where Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel do well, as clear favorites against sub-.500 competition. The Saints are an awful 1-10 ATS in the first quarter, so you can just play that at even odds if you prefer.
I'm giving Miami the whole first half to be the better team. The Saints are also worst in the league in 1H ATS at 3-8, but New Orleans is actually 7-4 ATS in the second half, while Miami is 4-7.
Avoid the second-half backdoor and play Miami 1H -2.5 (-115, Fanatics). It's a great way to get below the key number from the full-game spread, and home favorites of seven or less coming off a bye are 86-66-22 ATS (57%) in the first half.
Pick: Dolphins 1st Half -2.5
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Vikings vs Seahawks Props: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards
The quarterback situation in this game is messy and will certainly be a storyline.
J.J. McCarthy will miss a game with his second injury this season, which will mean a debut start for undrafted QB Max Brosmer, throwing the third stringer to the wolves on the road against this nasty Seattle defense.
It's not like the Vikings didn't have any other options. They could've just kept Sam Darnold, the guy lighting it up for the other side in this game.
Can defensive coordinator Brian Flores pressure Darnold and get a familiar face off kilter? Or will Darnold put up big numbers in a revenge game?
The matchup sets up well for Seattle against a Vikings defense that's been fading rapidly.
Minnesota ranks in the bottom five by DVOA against WR1s on the season. The Vikings also rank in the bottom five against deep passes and dead last by EPA per play.
That's going to be big trouble against a team that passes the ball deep more often and better than just about anyone this season, with Seattle in the top three on deep passing both by volume and EPA per play.
Sounds like JSN's music to me.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to roll. He already set Seattle's franchise receiving yards record in Week 12, somehow, and is still on pace to break the all-time receiving record.
JSN has at least 93 yards in all but one game this season … and he had a meager 79 in that one! He's had 100+ yards in eight of 11 games, a wild statistic.
Smith-Njigba's yardage line closed at 96.5 last week. I'll look to take that over or just 100+ yards for JSN, and it may be wise to sprinkle 150+ yards or even top yardage WR of the day.
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ Rec Yds + Escalator
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Brandon's NFL Week 13 Betting Card
- Steelers +4.5 and +175 ML
- Jets +2.5 & Alt Spread -6.5
- Colts 1st Quarter -0.5
- Dolphins 1st Half -2.5
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ Receiving Yards + Escalator
