The bye weeks are behind us and now it's time for the home stretch with four weeks to go in the regular season.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats, and notes you need to know. Here's Week 15 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats, and trends are updated as of Wednesday, Dec. 11, at 11 a.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Streak KIller
Panthers Finally Favored
The Panthers have covered the spread in five straight games. Carolina hadn’t covered five straight games since 2013 when they covered six straight behind Cam Newton. At the moment, the Panthers own the longest active ATS winning streak in the NFL.
The Panthers have gone 33 consecutive games as underdogs, including being an underdog in 42 of their last 43 games. Carolina was last favored in Week 15, 2022 (vs. PIT). They’ve lost nine straight games ATS as a favorite, while every other NFL team has had at least three covers as a favorite since Oct. 1, 2021. They were last favored by FG (-3) or more in Nov. 2021.
Big Apple
Large Giants Spread
In the last 50 years, the Giants have never closed as an underdog of 14 or more points at home. The closest was back in 1973 when they closed +13.5 against Fran Tarkenton and the Vikings.
The last time they were this big of an underdog came back in December of 1966 against the Cowboys as a 23-point underdog at home.
Will It End?
Titans Historic Season
Titans are 2-11 against the spread this season, the worst mark for any team through 13 games since the 2016 Browns. Of the five other teams above, the 2016 Browns, 2007 Ravens and 1987 Bengals are the only three teams to start 2-12 ATS. Overall, The worst ATS mark for any team since 1990 is the Ravens, who went 3-13 ATS back in 2007.
Bye, Bye, Bye
Not The Best Year
Teams who are coming off a bye, facing a team who is not, is just 9-13 SU this season. A $100 bettor is down $713 on the moneyline in this spot, the 2nd-worst season for teams off of a bye over the last decade.
Seven Heaven
Chiefs ATS Losing Streak
Chiefs won and didn’t cover again last week. They are 12-1 SU and 4-8-1 ATS this season and are currently on a 7-game ATS losing streak. Since 1990, only two teams have had a 75%+ win pct while on a 7+ game ATS losing streak: the 2024 Chiefs and 2020 Chiefs.
Chiefs have now lost 7 consecutive games against the spread — the longest ATS losing streak of Andy Reid's coaching career.
Two Face
Texans 1H and 2H Difference
No team has seen a difference in their 1H and 2H play this year. The Texans are 11-2 against the first-half spread, the best mark of any team in the NFL.
As head coach of the Texans, DeMeco Ryans is 23-9 1H ATS, including 23-7 1H ATS with CJ Stroud at QB. Stroud’s 1H ATS mark is the 3rd-best of any QB of 262 QBs over the last 20 years behind just Jared Goff and Joe Flacco. Houston is also 2-11 against the second-half spread, the worst mark of any team in the NFL.
Not So Super
Saints Big Home Spread
The Saints are big home underdogs this week, which isn’t a frequent occurrence for them. In the past 20 years, New Orleans has only closed as an underdog of seven of 7 or more points at home two times, once in 2021 behind Trevor Siemian, who closed +7 and once in 2005, which was played outside the Superdome due to Katrina, with Todd Bouman, who closed at +9.5.
The last time the Saints closed above +7 at home in the Superdome was back in 1999, when Jake Delhomme started for New Orleans against Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and the Cowboys, closing +9 with the Saints winning outright.
Bo Knows
Nix Excels As Favorite
Bo Nix has started all 13 games so far this season for the Broncos, and Denver is 10-3 ATS, covering the number by 6.2 PPG. Entering Week 15, Nix is the most profitable QB ATS in the NFL.
Nix has only closed as a favorite six times in his 13 career starts, and he is 6-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 11.8 points per game. Nix is the lone remaining QB undefeated ATS as a favorite this year – no minimum starts.
Bo Nix is the first rookie QB to start 6-0 SU/ATS as a favorite all in their rookie year in the Super Bowl era.
Pennsylvania Punch
Battle in Philly
The battle of Pennsylvania, with this time in Philadelphia. The history of the Steelers–Eagles in Philly hasn’t been great for Pittsburgh. They have lost 10 straight games in Philadelphia, failing to cover the spread in 9 straight games on the road against the Eagles.
The Steelers are 5-0 SU/ATS when listed as underdogs this season – a true hallmark of Tomlin’s career. Tomlin is 64-35-4 ATS (65%) as an underdog, .500 ATS or better in eight straight seasons.
Every NFL Game For Week 15
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Favorites on Thursday nights
➤Favorites on games played on a Thursday have dominated in recent years. They are 54-18 SU (75%), but only 38-33-1 ATS since 2021. On the moneyline, they are winning by 6.1 PPG and have a +9.2% ROI.
Brock Purdy's night game performance
➤Brock Purdy has made 14 starts at night for the 49ers. He is 10-4 SU and 8-6 ATS in those games. Purdy is 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS at home in night games.
When he’s a favorite of 6 points or more he’s 2-4 ATS at night, as a favorite of less than 6 or a dog, he’s 6-2 ATS in night games.
Against non-divisional opponents, Purdy is just 5-6 ATS in night games, he is 3-0 ATS vs. NFC West teams.
Since 2003, only two QBs are 4-0 ATS or better in night games vs. his own division – Andrew Luck (5-0-1 ATS and Vince Young (4-0 ATS).
Purdy's Thursday Night Football success
➤Purdy has played on Thursday Night Football four times and the 49ers are 4-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 7.9 PPG.
Since 2003, Purdy has been the only QB 4-0 ATS or better on Thursday Night Football. On short rest, Purdy is 6-2 ATS, 3rd-best of any QB last three seasons.
Sean McVay's night game coaching record
➤Sean McVay is 20-18-2 ATS coaching night games in his NFL career. When that night game is on short rest for McVay, he’s 7-3 ATS, when it’s on normal or extended rest, he’s just 10-13-2 ATS.
The 49ers' struggles without McCaffrey
➤The 49ers are now 6-7 SU in games where either McCaffrey gets fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play and his teams (CAR, SF) are 23-34 SU it that spot.
Stafford's record vs. 49ers
➤In Stafford’s career, he is 4-7 ATS vs. 49ers, including 2-6 SU in his last eight starts vs. 49ers.
Stafford beat the 49ers back in Week 3. In his 11 career starts vs. 49ers, he’s never won two in a row outright.
McVay's recent success vs. 49ers
➤McVay is 6-10 ATS vs. 49ers in his career, but recently he’s found a groove. He started his career 3-10 ATS vs. SF and has covered three in a row, all as underdogs.
Shanahan and the 49ers in night games
➤Night games haven’t been a terrible spot for Shanahan and the 49ers, especially at home. This season, the 49ers are 2-0 SU/ATS in night games at home, scoring 30+ points in both games.
Purdy’s success on homestands
➤In Purdy’s career as a starter, he has done a great job winning games on a homestand (2nd consecutive home game or later). He is 8-1 SU, with his only loss coming in his last game in this spot earlier this year vs. Cardinals.
Purdy's struggles against teams above .500
➤Dating back to Christmas of last year, Purdy is just 1-7 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU on the season, with his lone cover coming against the Seahawks on TNF this year.
Saints As Big Home Underdogs
➤The Saints are big home underdogs this week, which isn’t a frequent occurrence for them.
In the past 20 years, New Orleans has only closed as a 7+ point underdog at home two times, once in 2021 behind Trevor Siemian, who closed +7 and once in 2005, which was played outside the Superdome due to Katrina, with Todd Bouman, who closed at +9.5.
The last time the Saints closed above +7 at home in the Superdome was back in 1999, when Jake Delhomme started for New Orleans against Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and the Cowboys, closing +9 with the Saints winning outright.
Saints Backup QB Situation
➤The reason for the high spread is that Derek Carr will be out this week with a fracture in his right hand.
Carr has missed five regular season games for injuries in his career. He also missed a playoff game for the Raiders in the 2016 season and was benched for the final two games of the 2022 season.
With Carr sidelined again, the Saints go to a backup QB this week. This will be the Saints' 29th game with a backup QB dating back to 2013 and they are a very respectable 13-15 SU and 16-12 ATS using a backup QB over that span but are 0-3 SU/ATS this year with Spencer Rattler, being outscored 110-45 in three games.
Road Favorites Coming Off A Bye
➤Road favorites coming off a bye week are 77-54-4 ATS (59%) since 2004.
This week that is the Ravens and Commanders. When the teams is above .500 SU on the season, they are 55-35 ATS (61%) in that span.
Saints First Half Performance
➤The Saints have been a pretty good first half team this season, they are 9-4 1H ATS, tied for the 3rd-best record for any team in the NFL.
Under Dennis Allen, the Saints were 5-4 1H ATS and under new head coach Darren Rizzi, they are 4-0 1H ATS, the only 4-0 1H ATS coach since he began his tenure.
Jayden Daniels vs. Teams Above .500
➤This season, Jayden Daniels is 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU and 7-1 SU/ATS vs. teams below .500 SU – with his only loss coming vs. Cowboys.
Washington's Fourth Quarter Struggles
➤Executing in the fourth quarter has been a minor issue for Washington this year.
1Q ATS: 9-3-1
2Q ATS: 7-6
3Q ATS: 8-5
4Q ATS: 3-10
Teams With Division Games On Deck
➤Commanders have the Eagles on deck next week. Teams with a win pct of 60%+, who have a division game on deck vs. a team with a 75%+ win pct are just 60-85-4 ATS (41%) since 2011.
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Dolphins' Struggles Against Teams Above .500
➤Since 2021, Dolphins are 5-18 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 23-10 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.
From Tua’s standpoint, he is 6-15 SU and 9-11-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU in his career and 23-8 SU and 19-12 ATS vs. teams below .500 SU. When Tua plays on the road or neutral site vs. a team above .500 SU, he is 2-12 SU in his career, losing those games by 14.9 PPG.
Since the beginning of last season, Tua has been listed as an underdog ten times and he is 2-8 SU in those games. Both of Tua’s wins have come on the road in L.A. against the Rams and Chargers. Tua is 5-12 SU as a dog away from home in his career as well.
Tua's Performance in Dome Games
➤In Tua’s career he has played five games inside of a dome like he is this week in Houston.
The Dolphins are 4-1 SU in those games, averaging 25.6 PPG in those matchups.
Texans Coming Off A Full Bye Week
➤Texans are coming off a full bye week to face the Dolphins at home.
In CJ Stroud’s career, he has only played three games on extended rest – he is 2-1 SU/ATS, losing his only start at home in this spot.
Texans' Strong First Half Play
➤No team has seen a difference in their 1H and 2H play this year. The Texans are 11-2 against the first half spread, the best mark of any team in the NFL.
As head coach of the Texans, DeMeco Ryans is 23-9 1H ATS, including 23-7 1H ATS with CJ Stroud at QB. Stroud’s 1H ATS mark is the 3rd-best of any QB of 262 QBs over the last 20 years behind just Jared Goff and Joe Flacco.
Houston is also 2-11 against the second half spread, the worst mark of any team in the NFL.
Stroud's Performance As An Underdog
➤Stroud has made 30 career starts in the NFL. He’s 8-4 ATS as an underdog and 6-12 ATS as a favorite in his pro career.
Miami is only averaging 20.3 PPG this season, but that’s not the full story. They scored 32 points vs. Jets last week. In CJ Stroud’s career, he has only faced a team off 30+ points three times, he is 1-2 SU and he’s never been favored in that spot before.
Stroud's Success With High Totals
➤The total in this contest is around 47 this week. With a total of 45+, the under is 10-3 when CJ Stroud starts, including 7-1 when it closes at 47 or higher.
Jets' Struggles On The Moneyline
➤This season the Jets are 3-10 SU on the moneyline, losing a $100 bettor $844. The 2nd-worst team on the moneyline? The Jaguars are also 3-10 SU, but they are down $776.
Since 2003, the Jets mark of -$844 on the moneyline this year would be their worst in that span just ahead of their 2005 season.
Doug Pederson's Record As An Underdog
➤As an underdog, Doug Pederson is 39-28 ATS, including 7-2 ATS this season. As a favorite, he is 31-37 ATS in his career, including 1-3 ATS this year.
Mac Jones has started three games for Jacksonville this year, the Jags have scored 23 total points all three games combined. In his career, Mac Jones is 6-17 ATS when listed as an underdog, the 4th-worst mark for any QB since 2003. If he starts and doesn’t cover this week, he would be 282nd ATS of 283 QBs, ahead of just Jay Cutler.
Win Percentage And Spread Trends
➤When two teams play in game 14 or later, both with a win pct of 25% or less, the favorite is 14-5 SU and 12-7 ATS since 1990.
Jets' Struggles Since Week 4
➤Since Week 4, the Jets are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS, which is tied for the worst SU mark for any team in the NFL with the Raiders and Giants and tied for the worst ATS mark with the Titans.
This season, the Jets and Giants are 5-21 SU and 8-18 ATS combined.
Of the 33 QBs to have at 200 plays since Week 4, Aaron Rodgers is 28th in EPA/play, 29th in success rate, 30th in CPOE, and 26th in aDOT.
Jets' Unusual Favorite Status
➤The Jets are about to be favored in their 10th game this season and they are 3-10 SU.
Since 1990, only one other team has been favored in 9+ games within their first 13 games and only has three wins or less as a favorite and that was the 2016 Panthers. The Jets would be alone at the top if they lost outright this week.
Rodgers' Struggles On The Road In First Half
➤The first half on the road has been an issue for Rodgers. He is 4-10 1H on the moneyline on the road since the start of 2022. At home during that span, he is 7-5-2 1H SU.
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Titans Struggling Against The Spread
➤Titans are 2-11 against the spread this season, the worst mark for any team through 13 games since the 2016 Browns.
2-11 ATS or Worse Thru 13 Games in the Super Bowl Era
2024 Titans, 2-11 ATS
2016 Browns, 2-11 ATS
2011 Rams, 2-11 ATS
2007 Ravens, 2-11 ATS
1987 Bengals, 2-11 ATS
1984 Oilers, 2-11 ATS
Of the five other teams above, the 2016 Browns, 2007 Ravens and 1987 Bengals are the only three teams to start 2-12 ATS.
Overall, The worst ATS mark for any team since 1990 is the Ravens, who went 3-13 ATS back in 2007.
Joe Burrow's Performance Based On Rest
➤How has Joe Burrow performed based on rest?
On short rest, Burrow is 7-3 ATS, including 5-1 ATS on short rest as a favorite of 3 points or more. Burrow is 8-7-1 ATS on extended rest during the season, not including Week 1s. On normal 7 day rest, Burrow is 27-14 ATS.
Burrow Dominates Against Bad Opponents
➤Burrow has dominated bad opponents in his career, going 15-7 ATS vs. teams below .500 SU, including 11-3 ATS since the start of the 2022 season.
Road MNF Teams Struggling In Back-To-Back Road Games
➤Not the easiest spot for Cincinnati. Teams off a road MNF game, who have to play on the road again are 13-22 SU and 15-20 ATS over the last decade.
Titans' Struggles In The 2nd Half
➤The Titans have been a terrible 2nd half team. Since the start of the 2022 season, Tennessee is 12-34-1 (26%) against the 2nd half spread, by far the worst mark in the NFL.
During that span, they are 5-17 against the 2nd half spread when playing at home.
Burrow's Success On The 2nd Game Of A Road Trip
➤Nobody loves a road trip like Burrow. On the 2nd game or later of a road trip, Burrow is 11-4 ATS in his career, covering the spread by 4.1 PPG.
That is the best mark in the NFL for any QB since Burrow was drafted in 2020.
Double-Digit Favorites Struggling Against The Spread
➤Double-digit favorites started the season 5-0 ATS through Week 11. Since then, they have 0-4 ATS.
Giants' Largest Home Underdog Line In Decades
➤In the last 50 years, the Giants have never closed as a 14+ point underdog at home. The closest was back in 1973 when they closed +13.5 against Fran Tarkenton and the Vikings.
The last time they were this big of an underdog came back in December of 1966 against the Cowboys as a 23-point underdog at home.
Lamar Jackson's NFC East Struggles
➤Just something about the NFC East. Lamar Jackson lost his 2nd career game vs. the NFC two weeks ago against the Eagles. He is 23-2 SU vs. the NFC now, with both of his losses actually coming vs. the NFC East, in the Eagles and Giants.
As a favorite of 6 points or more vs. the NFC, Lamar is just 3-9-1 ATS and as a favorite of 7 or more, he is 2-9-1 ATS.
Lamar Jackson’s Performance After A Bye Week
➤Ravens are off a bye to face the Giants this week.
On extended rest, Lamar Jackson is 15-6 SU, but just 9-12 ATS. Coming off a full bye week, Lamar is 6-2 SU, but just 2-6 ATS, including 1-5 ATS in the regular season. Overall, John Harbaugh is 16-4 SU and 11-9 ATS off a bye week.
Road Favorites After A Bye Week
➤Road favorites coming off a bye week are 77-54-4 ATS (59%) since 2004.
This week that is the Ravens and Commanders. When the team is above .500 SU on the season, they are 55-35 ATS (61%) in that span.
Lamar Jackson’s Road Performance
➤In his career, Lamar is 29-17 ATS on the road, compared to 21-27-1 ATS at home.
As a favorite of 7 points or more on the road, he is 5-7 ATS, under that mark Lamar is 24-10 ATS.
Giants’ Struggles After Facing Teams Off A Bye
➤Over the last two seasons, the Giants have faced a team off a bye week four times and they have scored a total of 34 points.
Giants Breaking Their Long ATS Losing Streak
➤Giants ended their 7-game ATS losing streak last week vs. Saints losing by only 3 points as a 4.5-point underdog at home. That 7-game streak was the longest in the Super Bowl era for New York.
Since 1990, teams coming off breaking a 7+ game ATS losing streak are actually 15-4-3 ATS in their next game.
Giants have also lost 8 games in a row outright, T-2nd the longest streak in franchise history – nine is their record done three times, most recently in 2019.
Ravens' Upcoming Divisional Matchup
➤Ravens have the Steelers on deck next week. Teams with a win pct of 60%+, who have a division game on deck vs. a team with a 75%+ win pct are just 60-85-4 ATS (41%) since 2011.
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Chiefs Struggling With Takeaways
➤This season, the Chiefs only have 10 takeaways, T-for the 3rd-fewest for any team in the NFL this year.
Fewest takeaways by a team with 11+ wins thru 13 games in NFL history
- 2024 Chiefs – 10
- 2016 Patriots – 14
- 2016 Cowboys – 14
- 2024 Eagles – 15
Mahomes' 4th Quarter Success
➤After the Chiefs beat the Chargers after trailing in the 4th quarter, Patrick Mahomes is now 26-26 SU in his career when trailing at any point in the 4th quarter, the best mark for any QB in NFL history.
Chiefs' Point Differential Struggles
➤Chiefs are 12-1 SU and have a point differential of just +56. They are just the 3rd team to be 12-1 or better with a point differential of less than 100. 1990 49ers, who lost in the Conference Championship, and the 1976 Raiders, who won it all.
Chiefs are just the 2nd team in NFL history to win ten games in a season by 7 points or fewer, joining the 1978 Oilers, who lost in the Conference Championship that season.
Chiefs Struggling Against The Spread
➤Chiefs won and didn’t cover again last week. They are 12-1 SU and 4-8-1 ATS this season and are currently on a 7-game ATS losing streak. Since 1990, only two teams have had a 75%+ win pct while on a 7+ game ATS losing streak: the 2024 Chiefs and 2020 Chiefs.
Longest ATS Losing Streak For Andy Reid
➤Chiefs have now lost 7 consecutive games against the spread — the longest ATS losing streak of Andy Reid's coaching career.
Mahomes' Struggles Against The 2nd Half Spread
➤Mahomes is 1-6 2H ATS in his last 7 starts, before this stretch, he was 13-1 2H ATS in his previous 14 starts.
Mahomes' Struggles As A Favorite
➤Mahomes is now 24-40-2 ATS (-$1,788) as a favorite of 3.5 points or more since 2020, the worst mark of any QB in the NFL by a large margin.
Jameis Winston's Struggles Against The Spread
➤In Jameis Winston’s last nine starts, his teams are 2-7 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 5.3 PPG.
In Jameis’ career, he has struggled at home going 15-24-2 ATS, but 10-10-1 ATS as an underdog and 5-14-1 ATS as a favorite.
Browns' High Expectations And Playoff Failures
➤The Browns had +4000 odds to win the Super Bowl in the preseason. In the Wild Card era (since 1990), high expectations have not led to playoff results in Cleveland. The Browns had odds of 40-1 or shorter entering the regular season 11 times in the Wild Card era and they've never won a playoff game in those seasons with a combined record of 75-117 SU.
Panthers' Strong ATS Streak
➤The Panthers have covered the spread in five straight games after going 1-9 ATS in their previous ten games before the streak.
Carolina hadn’t covered five straight games since 2013 when they covered six straight behind Cam Newton.
At the moment, the Panthers own the longest active ATS winning streak in the NFL.
Panthers' Underdog Streak Continues
➤The Panthers have gone 33 consecutive games as underdogs, including being an underdog in 42 of their last 43 games. Carolina was last favored in Week 15, 2022 (vs. PIT).
They’ve lost nine straight games ATS as a favorite, while every other NFL team has had at least three covers as a favorite since Oct. 1, 2021. They were last favored by FG (-3) or more in Nov. 2021.
Entering this week, the Panthers are 10 games away from tying the modern record for consecutive games as an underdog with the 2007-10 Rams, who did so in 43 straight games.
Bryce Young has made 24 career starts in the NFL – this could be his first as a favorite.
Bryce Young's ATS Performance
➤In those 24 starts from Bryce, he is 10-13-1 ATS, but that is 7-4 ATS vs. teams below .500 SU and 3-9-1 ATS vs. teams above .500.
Cowboys' Struggles In The 3rd Quarter
➤Cowboys have struggled out of the locker room this season. They are 4-9 ATS in the third quarter, only the Browns have been worse this year (3-10). Since the start of last season, Dallas is just 9-21 ATS in the third quarter.
Cooper Rush's Impact On Cowboys' Success
➤Cooper Rush has played the majority of six games this season, Dallas is 2-4 SU in those six games but 0-2 SU when Rush gets sacked 2+ times and 2-2 SU under that mark.
Cowboys' Worst ATS Season In Years
➤Cowboys are on the verge of one of the worst ATS seasons in recent memory in Dallas. They are 4-9 ATS this year, T-2nd-worst mark in the NFL with only the Titans worse.
Worst ATS Seasons for Cowboys in Super Bowl Era
1997: 3-11-2 ATS
2015: 4-11-1 ATS
2020: 5-11 ATS
1979: 5-11 ATS
2024: 4-9 ATS
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Steelers' Struggles In Philadelphia
➤The battle of Pennsylvania, with this time in Philadelphia. The history of Steelers-Eagles in Philly hasn’t been great for Pittsburgh. They have lost 10 straight games in Philadelphia, failing to cover the spread in 9 straight games on the road against the Eagles.
Steelers' Underdog Success Under Tomlin
➤The Steelers are 5-0 SU/ATS when listed as underdogs this season – a true hallmark of Tomlin’s career. Tomlin is 64-35-4 ATS (65%) as an underdog, .500 ATS or better in eight straight seasons.
With a win pct of 75% or higher, Tomlin has only closed +4 or more five times. Pittsburgh is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in those games.
Steelers' One-Score Game Dominance
➤Nobody plays one-score games like the Steelers. This season, they are 6-3 SU/ATS in those games.
Last year, the Steelers were 9-2 SU in one-score games (within eight points), the best mark in the NFL – which is nothing new for Pittsburgh. They’ve been over .500 SU in one-score games for eight straight years and .500 SU or better in 10 consecutive seasons.
Since 2020, they are 37-14 SU in one-score games, 2nd-best mark in the NFL, behind just the Chiefs. They are 35-16-1 ATS in those games, the 3rd-best mark in the NFL, too.
Steelers' Offense Without George Pickens
➤George Pickens is slated to miss the 2nd game of his career this week after missing last week’s game vs. Browns.
The Steelers can certainly win without Pickens, they are 8-3 SU when he gets fewer than 5 targets in his career. But they will miss the deep ball, Pickens’ 16 receptions of 20+ yds trails only Justin Jefferson, Darnell Mooney and Zay Flowers this season.
This season, Pickens has 45.5% of the team’s pct of air yards, the 5th-highest mark in the NFL, and in terms of first read and designed targets, Pickens has 75 for Pittsburgh, the next highest is Calvin Austin and Pat Freiermuth, who have 33 each.
Steelers' Defense Against The Run
➤The Eagles have the best rush attack in the NFL, averaging 190.6 yards per game on the ground, the best mark in the NFL.
Tomlin has done his job against good rush offenses.
150+: 23-16 ATS
170+ 9-4 ATS
180+: 6-3 ATS
Steelers' Success When Winning Straight Up
➤It won’t change this week, but since the start of the 2022 season, when the Steelers win, they cover. They are 29-0 ATS in games they have won straight up since then, the best mark of any team in the NFL.
Eagles' First Quarter Struggles
➤Eagles are now 2-11 against the first quarter spread this season — worst mark for any team in the NFL. In 36 first quarter drives, they have 21 punts and 4 TDs
Eagles' Strong 2nd Quarter Performance
➤Another game, another scoreless 1Q for the Eagles last week – they are 2-11 against 1Q spread this year, the worst mark in the NFL.
Of course, then they scored 14 points in the 2Q against the Panthers last week and the Ravens the week before. Philly is 11-2 against the 2Q spread this year, T-best mark in the NFL with the Lions.
Jalen Hurts' ATS Performance
➤In Jalen Hurts’ career, he is 25-24-1 ATS as a favorite, 13-6 ATS when his opponent is above .500 SU and 7-16-2 ATS when the team is below .500 SU.
High Over/Under Line
➤The over/under in this matchup is listed at 55, which would be the highest total in any NFL game since October of 2022, a game between the Bills and Chiefs, which closed at 55.5.
Since 2019, totals of 55% are 23-10 to the under, going under the total by 3.2 PPG.
Josh Allen's MVP Odds
➤Josh Allen is a -450 odds-on favorite to win MVP entering Week 15. Ironically enough the last two players to be odds-on favorites to win MVP entering Week 15 didn’t win the award. In 2022 Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes won it and in 2021, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers won it.
Perfect Game, Tough Loss
➤Last week, the Bills played the perfect game from an offensive standpoint. They were the first team in NFL history to score 6+ TDs, have no turnovers, and lose the game.
Since 2018, teams to have 0 turnovers, score 4+ TDs, and lose their previous game are actually 12-21 SU and 10-23 ATS 2018.
Goff's Success on Extended Rest
➤How has Jared Goff done on extended rest? 22-10-1 SU, 20-11-2 ATS – on extended rest during the season, Goff has covered the spread in 8 straight games, including going 15-4 ATS since 2020, the best mark in the NFL.
Teams with Late-Season Mini Byes
➤A lot has been made about the late-season mini bye teams like the Lions get after playing Thursday Night Football. In a team game 13 or later, when they have a win pct of 75% or higher and play a game on extended rest, they are 88-119-3 ATS (42%) since 2003.
Goff's Home Performance
➤Jared Goff has finished .500 ATS or better at home in six straight seasons and is 4-2-1 ATS this year. In that span since 2018, Goff is 34-20-3 ATS (63%) at home, the best mark of any QB in the NFL.
Goff's ATS by Venue
➤Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor…
Indoor: 43-20-1 ATS (33-12-1 ATS last four seasons)
Outdoor: 37-35-2 ATS
Lions' Success in the First Half
➤Over the last three seasons, the Lions are now 37-12-1 against the first-half spread over their last 50 total games – the best mark of any team in the NFL. When a Dan Campbell-coached team faces a team above .500 SU, they are 23-7 against the first half spread.
Josh Allen as an Underdog
➤The Bills are listed as underdogs against the Lions in Detroit. In his career, Josh Allen is 14-20 SU and 18-14-2 ATS. In Allen’s six seasons, he’s never finished a year above .500 SU as a dog. He is 1-2 SU this year and 2-4 ATS since the start of last year.
Since 2019, when Allen has faced the best of the best (70%+ win pct) as a dog, he is 2-8 SU.
When the Bills are off a loss, Allen is 23-9 SU and 16-14-1 ATS. When Allen is a dog after a loss, he is just 5-6 SU/ATS.
Josh Allen’s Dominance Against NFC
➤Josh Allen has dominated the NFC in his career but lost last week against the Rams. He is 23-7 SU and 17-12-1 ATS. In Allen’s career, he has never lost consecutive games outright vs the NFC.
Buffalo’s Historic Scoring Run
➤The Bills are on a historic scoring run right now, putting up 30+ points in seven straight games. Since 2000, only five teams have had a longer 30+ point streak than Buffalo’s: 2020 Bucs, 2012 Broncos, 2010 Patriots, 2007 Patriots, and 2000 Rams.
Buffalo's Defensive Fatigue
➤The Bills defense was on the field a ton last week and now have to play on the road again.
Teams to play on the road in b2b games after their defense allowed 70+ plays in their previous games are 72-103 SU (41%) over the last decade.
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Unique Spot With Both Teams Coming Off a Bye
➤Unique spot here with both teams coming off a bye. When that happens over the last decade, the under is 22-10-1 (69%) in those games, going under the total by 3.7 PPG.
Sean Payton's Success on Extended Rest
➤Sean Payton is coming off a bye this week. Already in 2024, the Broncos have played on extended prep time twice and they are 2-0 SUATS, scoring 69 combined points in both games.
Overall on extended prep, Payton coached teams are 41-21 SU (66%) in his career, including 26-13 SU (67%) at home.
Off a full bye, Payton is 14-6 SU and 11-9 ATS, but just 1-2 SU when his opponent is off a bye week, too.
Bo Nix's Undefeated Record as a Favorite
➤Bo Nix has started all 13 games so far this season for the Broncos, and Denver is 10-3 ATS, covering the number by 6.2 PPG. Entering Week 15, Nix is the most profitable QB ATS in the NFL.
Nix has only closed as a favorite six times in his 13 career starts, and he is 6-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 11.8 points per game. Nix is the lone remaining QB undefeated ATS as a favorite this year – no minimum starts.
Bo Nix is the first rookie QB to start 6-0 SU/ATS as a favorite all in their rookie year in the Super Bowl era.
Between Weeks 1-4, Nix had an EPA/play that ranked 27th in the NFL. Since Week 5, Nix is 13th in the NFL.
Bo Nix's Ability to Handle Defensive Pressure
➤Nix has dealt pretty well with pressure from the defense this season. He has faced a team in the top-half of pressure pct six times and he is 5-1 ATS, including 3-0 ATS facing teams currently in the top-9 in pressure pct.
Anthony Richardson's Bounce-Back Ability
➤Before the bye, the Colts won but failed to cover the spread against the Patriots.
In Anthony Richardson’s short career, he is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in his previous game.
Colts' Performance in One-Score Games Under Steichen
➤The Colts have played 20 one-score games under Shane Steichen, and they're 12-8 SU and 14-6 ATS, when they are listed as underdogs, they are 9-3 ATS.
Richardson's Road Performance Against Winning Teams
➤This will just be Richardson’s 2nd start on the road against a team above .500 SU, he lost but covered in Houston earlier this season.
Road dogs who failed to make the playoffs the previous season are above .500 ATS this season and 54% ATS since 2019.
Justin Herbert's Historic Interception-Free Streak
➤Justin Herbert has still only thrown one interception this season, coming back in Week 2 against the Panthers. Herbert has gone 11 straight games without an INT, tying Tom Brady's record (2010) for most consecutive starts (in the same season) without an INT.
Chargers' Under Trend Continues
➤Chargers are 9-4 to the under in the full game total this season and 21-9 to the under since the start of last year.
Just look at Jim Harbaugh and his tendencies: In his last three years as a coach in the NFL, the under 30-17-1 in games between the Chargers and 49ers.
Looking specifically at Justin Herbert, he's now 19-7 to the under since the start of last season – that includes a 19-5 record to the under in his last 24 starts.
Harbaugh's Bounce Back Record After a Loss
➤Chargers lost last week against the Chiefs. As an NFL head coach, Harbaugh’s teams are 15-8 SU and 13-8-2 ATS after a SU loss. This year, Chargers are 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS, with their only loss coming to the Chiefs.
Herbert's Struggles Against the 2H Spread
➤Herbert has struggled against the second-half spread in his career. Herbert is 24-47-5 (34%) against the second-half spread in his career, but he’s covered two straight now in the second half. In his 76 start NFL career, Herbert has only covered three straight 2H ATS once, back at the end of 2022.
He’s 12-31-2 against the second-half spread when leading at halftime as well.
Baker Mayfield's ATS Improvement With The Bucs
➤A different Baker. Between 2018-22, he was 29-41-1 ATS, the third worst mark in the NFL. With the Bucs, he is 20-12 ATS, the 3rd-best mark in the NFL, behind only Bo Nix and Jared Goff.
Baker's Post-Cover Struggles
➤Last week the Bucs won and covered against the Raiders. In Baker’s career, he is 19-30 ATS the game after a cover, the 3rd-worst mark for any QB since 2003.
When he’s a favorite in that previous game, Baker is 6-13 ATS in his next matchup.
Baker Mayfield's Road Success
➤On the road though, Baker has been a very different QB ATS than he has been at home.
Since the start of last season, Baker is 12-4 ATS on the road, all with the Bucs, covering the spread by 6.3 PPG (he’s 16-0 in a 6-point teaser). In Baker’s three four ATS on the road, he still scored 20+ points. Historically for Baker, he’s 20-28-1 ATS at home in his career.
Baker vs. The Chargers' Stubborn Defense
➤This week Baker goes up against one of the most stingy defenses in the league. The Chargers are allowing 15.9 PPG, just 207 points through 13 games.
As a member of the Bucs, Baker has faced three defenses allowing 17 PPG or less and he is 3-0 ATS in those games.
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Cardinals Struggling In Recent Games
➤Cardinals have lost three straight games entering this matchup vs. Patriots.
During that span, Kyler Murray has struggled. Of 33 QBs with at least 50 plays during that span, Kyler is 25th in EPA/play, 19th in success rate, and CPOE and even his aDOT is down to 6.5, which is 28th.
In Weeks 1 -11, Kyler was top-10 in EPA/play and success rate metrics.
Cardinals Show Strong Second Half Play
➤The Cardinals have been a better 2nd half team from a betting standpoint this season, they are 8-5 against the 3rd quarter spread, 8-5 against the 4th quarter spread, and 8-5 against the second half spread.
Kyler Murray Struggles In Divisional Matchups
➤Divisional games have been a thorn in Kyler Murray’s side in his career.
Since the beginning of the 2022 season, the Cardinals are 4-11 ATS vs. the NFC West, the least profitable team ATS in the NFL against divisional opponents.
Kyler Murray is just 9-16-2 ATS vs. NFC West in his career, the 2nd-worst mark for any QB in the NFL since he was drafted (worst is Baker Mayfield).
When Kyler faces a non-divisional opponent, he is 33-19 ATS, the 3rd-best mark in the NFL behind just Jared Goff and Joe Burrow – Kyler can be tough to deal with when you haven’t seen him before.
The one minor caveat? Arizona has struggled after an NFC West game recently, going 0-3 SU this year, and are currently on a 4-game SU losing streak, losing 5 of their last 6.
Kyler's Early Season Success
➤Kyler’s teams historically do better earlier in the season…
16-21-2 ATS in November or later
26-14 ATS in September and October
Patriots' Struggles When Trailing
➤Don’t fall behind. Since the start of 2022, the Patriots are 3-26 SU and 4-24-1 ATS when trailing by 7 points or more at any point, both are the worst marks in the NFL.
Drake Maye’s First Half Struggles
➤Drake Maye has made eight starts in the NFL. He is 2-6 against the first half spread, the 3rd-worst mark for any QB in the NFL this season, ahead of just Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams.
In the second half, Maye is 5-3 ATS this year, including 5-1 2H ATS in his last six starts, covering the spread by 2.8 PPG this year.
Patriots’ Struggles As Underdogs
➤Since 2021, the Patriots are 9-31 SU as an underdog, the 3rd-least profitable mark in the NFL, ahead of just the Bears and Falcons. Drake Maye has started his career 2-6 SU as a dog.
Sunday Night Football Unders Trend
➤Sunday Night Football under have been a profitable trend in recent years. Since 2022, they are 39-19 (67%), including 36-14 during the regular season. That includes a regular season mark of 66-36-2 (65%) since 2019. This season, they are 10-4 to the under.
Packers’ Second Half Success
➤Packers continue to be a good second half team. They were +1.5 2H vs. Lions last week and won 24-17 — the last two seasons, they were 22-10 against the 2nd half spread, the best mark in the NFL.
LaFleur's Performance Against Good Teams
➤Matt LaFleur has done an incredible job facing good teams. He is 28-17-1 ATS (62%) vs. teams above .500 SU with the Packers – the 3rd-best mark of any head coach since his NFL coaching debut.
The issue? He is 0-3-1 ATS in that spot this season facing the Lions, Texans, and Vikings.
LaFleur's December Dominance
➤In December, Matt LaFleur-coached teams have been dominant. He is 18-3 SU and 11-9-1 ATS. LaFleur has 6+ SU losses every month during football season.
Two of those three losses have come in night games for LaFleur, with both coming on the road.
LaFleur’s Record on Extended Prep Time
➤On extended prep time, Matt LaFleur is 16-9 SU, and 14-11 ATS in his career. Over the last 20 years, that’s the fourth-best mark of 99 head coaches.
When LaFleur is at home in this spot, he’s 11-4 ATS, but only 3-7 ATS on the road.
NFC North’s Strong Performance Against Other Divisions
➤The NFC North is now 29-9 SU, 25-13 ATS (66%) vs. other divisions this year — the 29-9 mark is the 2nd-best for a full season by any division since 1990 (2013 NFC West).
Packers' Struggles After Facing Lions
➤Packers lost to the Lions last week on Thursday Night Football. Teams after facing the Lions are 4-8 SU and 2-10 ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 10.6 PPG and 16-29 ATS over the last three seasons, the least profitable previous opponent ATS in the NFL over that span.
Packers’ Tough Road Spot After Defensive Fatigue
➤The Packers defense was on the field a ton last week and now has to play on the road again.
Teams to play on the road in b2b games after their defense allowed 70+ plays in their previous games are 72-103 SU (41%) over the last decade.
Geno Smith's Home vs. Road Split
➤Geno Smith has been a different QB at home vs. the road.
Home: 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS, 67.8% comp pct, 8 TD, 10 INT, 84.5 pass rtg
Road: 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS, 71.5% comp pct, 6 TD, 2 INT, 96.9 pass rtg
Seahawks’ Undergoing Underdog Streak
➤If the Seahawks close as underdogs on SNF it will be their 9th consecutive game as an underdog dating back to Week 6. They were last favored in a game back in Week 5 vs. Giants.
Seattle is just the 2nd team in the Wild Card era to be listed as an underdog in 9 straight games while owning a win pct of 60% or higher joining the 2012 Vikings.
Geno Smith's Night Game Struggles
➤Geno Smith has struggled mightily in night games. He is 3-11 SU, but 9-5 ATS in night games with the Seahawks and Jets – Geno has been favored in just two of those games. As an underdog, Geno is 2-10 SU as an underdog in primetime.
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Bears’ Struggles on the Road
➤The Bears are playing their 3rd straight game on the road this week. Since 2003, teams playing their 3rd straight road game is 45-70 SU (39%), when they are listed as an underdog, they are 21-59 SU (26%).
Recent Trends for Teams Losing by 17+ Points
➤Teams to lose by 17+ points vs. team who won by 17+ points the previous week — 115-79 ATS, 59% since 2003. Bears are the only match this week.
Caleb Williams’ Sack Struggles
➤Sacks continue to be an issue for Caleb Williams the Bears. He was sacked 7 times last week against the 49ers and has now been sacked 56 times this season, the 2nd-most for a rookie through 14 games since the merger behind just David Carr’s 70.
Teams to allow 7+ sacks the week prior are 98-126-6 ATS (43.8%) since 2003 in their next matchup, that includes 15-25-1 ATS over the last three seasons.
Bears’ Tough Remaining Schedule
➤With four games left, against the Lions, Vikings, Packers, and Seahawks, the Bears have the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, with a win pct of 77% for their opponents.
Bears’ Road Woes
➤The Bears haven't won on the road on a Sunday in almost three full calendar years now — 20 straight games. Last QB to win in this spot for Chicago? Nick Foles in Dec. of 2021.
Dating back to 2018, the Bears are actually 7-3 SU in their last ten road games played away from a Sunday, including 3-2 SU in their last 5 night games overall on the road.
First Half Struggles for Caleb Williams
➤Starting strong has been an issue for Chicago this year. Caleb Williams is 4-9 against the first half spread this year, the worst mark of any QB in the NFL, including 0-6 1H ATS when playing on the road.
Sam Darnold’s Success as a Favorite
➤Sam Darnold has made 69 career starts in the NFL, he has closed as a favorite of 7 points or more just twice – once with the Vikings this year and with the Panthers in 2021. Darnold won both of those games outright (1-1 ATS), but his defense only allowed 16 total points in those two games.
As a favorite of 6 points or more, Darnold is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, with 4 of those 5 games coming with Minnesota. He’s closed -6 or higher twice in a night game and is 2-0 SU/ATS in those matchups.
Vikings’ Success in Close Games
➤One-score games have been a positive for the Vikings under Kevin O’Connell. In the regular season, Minnesota is 24-9 SU (72.7%) in one-score games under O’Connell, the 3rd-best win pct for any head coach in NFL history. In 2024, the Vikings are 7-1 SU in those close games.
Kirk Cousins' Struggles Without Touchdowns
➤A pretty unreal streak. Kirk Cousins has gone four straight starts without throwing a touchdown pass, during that span he has 8 interceptions.
Cousins is the first QB to throw 0 TD passes with 8+ INT in a 4-game span since Brett Favre in 2005, with Alex Smith also doing so that season.
Cousins' Performance in Indoor Games
➤Kirk Cousins is back on Monday Night Football this week.
Over the last 5 seasons, Kirk Cousins is 16-31 ATS playing indoor games, including 7-17 ATS over the last three seasons. Since 2020, Cousins is the last of 92 QBs ATS playing indoor games.
Cousins' Struggles Against Blitzes
➤Cousins faces a blitz-heavy Raiders defense this week, they rank in the top-10 this year. When Cousins gets sacked 3+ times, Atlanta is 1-3 SU this year, losing three straight games and Kirk is 1-5 SU when getting sacked 3+ times over the last two seasons.
Cousins in Primetime Games
➤In Cousins' career, he has started 44 games in primetime – which are high profile games, night, playoffs, overseas, Saturday, etc. – and is 19-24-1 SU, 18-26 ATS. At night, he is 14-20 SU, 15-19 ATS. Cousins is 9-4 SU (6-7 ATS) in primetime in his last 13 starts.
Cousins' MNF Performance
➤Cousins has also had his issues on Monday Night Football. In his career, Cousins is 4-10 SU and ATS on Monday Night Football, with his teams averaging 17.3 PPG, scoring 20+ in 5 of 14 games.
Cousins began his career 0-9 SU/ATS on MNF and has won 4 of his last 5 starts SU and ATS.
Falcons' Struggles in the 2nd Quarter
➤Falcons have had issues against the 2nd quarter spread before heading to halftime. This season they are 4-9 2Q ATS, tied for the worst mark in the NFL – over the last three seasons, they are 16-31 2Q ATS, the worst mark in the NFL.
Raiders' Struggles Falling Behind Early
➤The Raiders fall behind in every single game. In all 13 of their games this season, they have been down by 10+ points, they are the first team to do that since the 1986 Colts who fell behind by double-digits in 16 straight games.
Raiders' Long Losing Streak
➤Raiders have lost 9 consecutive SU entering this game against the Falcons. Only the 4th 7+ game losing streak in Raiders history:
1962: 13 straight
2014: 10
2024: 9
2006: 9
Antonio Pierce's Success in Night Games
➤Antonio Pierce has coached two night games with the Raiders and his teams are 2-0 SU and ATS, covering the spread by 22 PPG, with both of those games coming at home.
Since 2003, only one head coach is 3-0 ATS or better in night games, that is Dennis Green, back in 2005 and 2006.
Desmond Ridder's First Half Struggles
➤If Desmond Ridder does get the start, he has shown a distinct pattern in his games. He is 5-12 against the first half spread, including starting his career 0-10 1H ATS. Against the 2nd half spread, Ridder is 11-6 in his NFL career.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: When two bad defenses face off, the under has been a profitable angle.
Matches: DAL/CAR, CIN/TEN, LV/ATL
System: This system looks to bet struggling offenses in the first half later in the season.
Matches: NO
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System: A bad underdog who is underperforming on the season have been very profitable the last few seasons.
Matches: CLE, NE, JAC, NO, NYG, CHI, LVR
System: Bet the under in high wind games.
Matches: CLE/KC
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