NFL Week 16 features a full 16-game slate, with the Patriots and Ravens set to meet on Sunday Night Football, and 49ers vs Colts closing it out on MNF.
For my Week 16 picks, we have moneyline and total predictions, first and second half picks, and prop bets for a handful of games, including Chargers vs Cowboys, Jaguars vs Broncos, Steelers vs Lions, and more.
I also have a lookahead pick for a Week 17 matchup between the Packers and Ravens.
Let's get to my NFL Week 16 picks and predictions!
NFL Week 16 Predictions
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Chiefs vs Titans Moneyline Prediction
Who would've imagined even one month ago that we'd be backing the 2-12 Titans against the mighty Chiefs in December?
Life comes at you fast.
Cam Ward has actually played relatively well for a rookie No. 1 pick. Tony Pollard is finding some running lanes lately, in part because Bill Callahan's offensive line is finally coming together late. Tennessee's pass defense is still pretty bad, but Jeffrey Simmons and T'Vondre Sweat are as good an interior combo as any and give the Titans a great run defense.
Tennessee is more bad than awful at this point, and that matters. The Titans won in Cleveland against that tough defense, and they've played competitive games in the last six weeks against the Chargers, Texans, Seahawks, and 49ers.
But this is really less about the Titans and more about how far the Chiefs have fallen.
This line was Chiefs -10.5 on Sunday morning before plummeting once Patrick Mahomes got hurt, and the question now is just how far to downgrade Kansas City without Mahomes. I'm not sure you can downgrade this team far enough.
It's not that Gardner Minshew is horrendous, but he's definitely not Mahomes. Suddenly that banged-up offensive line (missing its top four tackles!) is going to look even worse without that Mahomes scramble magic to keep things alive, and the leaky receiver room will be even more damaging. The Chiefs may lean even further into their punchless run game, against an opponent built to stop it.
The Chiefs have carried the target on their back every game for seven years — every time out is the opponent's Super Bowl. How will this team respond in a glorified exhibition game? Will veterans like Chris Jones and Travis Kelce show much fight? Will the coaches push and call their best plays? Will the re-energized defense still feel like bothering?
This game may not matter to Kansas City, but you can bet the Titans would still love a win against the Chiefs.
Tennessee has no need to tank. It already has its franchise QB, and this would be a good win for Cam Ward and a coaching staff trying to keep its jobs and establish team culture.
I think the Titans can win this one. Give me Tennessee on the moneyline at +145 (BetMGM).
If the Titans do win, that's a great setup for our Extra Point pick from this week's Pick Six column: Browns for worst record in the NFL at +2200 (bet365). You can read the case there for why that correlates with this outcome.
Pick: Titans Moneyline (+145)
Bills vs Browns Spread Pick
We had a big win last week with Bills second half, so let's run it back.
The full-game line here feels high at Bills -10.5. This looks windy and freezing with a total barely above 40, so it may be hard for Buffalo to separate on the road. I make the full-game line closer to a touchdown.
The Browns defense has consistently played better at home, and Buffalo has been a far less dangerous team on the road, where its offense rates league average by DVOA instead of No. 2 at home. I've got a stray eye on the Bills, effectively a league-average team by DVOA over the last six weeks with a badly faltering defense.
Cleveland's run defense can keep the Bills in sight, at least for awhile, and Quinshon Judkins should find some running room against this bad Bills run defense.
So why second half?
Buffalo is now a league-worst 3-11 ATS in the first half, while the Browns actually have a winning record (8-6 ATS). Buffalo has been far better in the second half at 10-4 ATS, while the Browns fall apart to 4-10 ATS. And that's been consistent with Josh Allen for his career too, a second-half god at a ridiculous 81-40-3 ATS (67%).
The Bills defense is much better playing with a lead, when the opponent is forced to abandon the run, and Buffalo will find some explosives in this game and win out — it just may take some time.
Playing Bills -4 second half gets us past 10 and seven as key numbers and it sets us up either way. If the Bills roll Cleveland, they'll just run the ball all second half and come after Shedeur Sanders. If Cleveland hangs til halftime, Allen can turn on the gas late.
Either way, we'll like our second-half bet.
Pick: Bills Second-Half Spread -4
Vikings vs Giants Spread Pick
The Vikings are clearly the better of these two teams, and we saw how good Minnesota can look against Dallas on Sunday night.
Minnesota's defense is the best unit on the field and still ranks top 10 by DVOA on the season, even missing some of its stalwarts. The Vikings have found a rushing attack too, also top 10 over the last six weeks, and that's a big deal against a Giants run defense that ranks dead last in the league by DVOA and EPA.
Jaxson Dart has had a nice rookie season but could struggle against all that Brian Flores pressure. Both these teams are probably a touch better than their season-long metrics, but the Vikings are the better team.
So why second half? It's a similar case to the Bills pick.
It's tough backing J.J. McCarthy on the road at the full -3, so we duck the key number and setup a similar script to the Bills. If Minnesota's ahead, the Vikings should run well on this defense. If not, Minnesota can make a late push.
The Giants offense has been far better early in games, 12th in the first half by DVOA versus 26th after halftime, and that includes top five in the first quarter. The defense has been much worse late, including worst in the league in the fourth quarter.
Those metrics are reflected in the results. The Giants have a winning record ATS (8-6) in the first half, while Minnesota is just 5-9 ATS. But in the second half, the Giants are tied for the worst ATS record at 4-10, while Minnesota jumps to 9-5 ATS.
Give me Vikings second half -1.5 at +105 (FanDuel).
Pick: Vikings Second Half Spread -1.5 (+105)
Chargers vs Cowboys Under & Prop
The Cowboys are officially eliminated from the postseason, and they went out with a whimper on Sunday night. Will they even show up here? A no-show would be one easy route to an under.
This is a pretty interesting matchup on paper — strength on strength, weakness on weakness.
Dallas's offense is best, though its rushing attack has faded a bit behind a shaky offensive line, and that matters in this matchup against a gettable run defense. Jesse Minter's defense has been outstanding, especially against the pass. They should keep George Pickens ice cold and away from the deep stuff, slowing down the Cowboys offense.
As for the Cowboys defense, maybe it hasn't improved so much after all. The run defense is closer to league average now but wasted on the Chargers, who can't find any offense to speak of right now anyway. Justin Herbert just can't find any time behind a shattered, terrible offensive line, and the Chargers rank bottom 10 both rushing and passing over the last six weeks and bottom five overall offensively by DVOA.
I'm not sure I see either team finding much scoring, but any Cowboys under is obviously terrifying. That's especially true early since Cowboys games are an incredible 13-1 to the over in the first half. I'll duck that trend and play just the second-half under 24.5.
I'm also looking to back Herbert — as a runner.
He's already hit career highs in both rushing attempts and yards with three weeks to go, and his 30 YPG is nearly double his career rate. Herbert has at least 19 rushing yards in 10 of his 14 games (71%), and he's run for 57+ yards in nearly half (4 of 10) his last 10 games.
Everyone knows Dallas allows the most fantasy points to QBs, but that's true both passing and rushing. Dallas allows the fourth-most rushing yards to QBs and has allowed at least 23 yards to the opposing QB in over half its games (8 of 14).
Give me Herbert over 13.5 rushing yards (bet365), a number he can hit with one good scramble. And in case he has a couple of those, we'll play 30+ yards at +375 and 50+ at +1400 too at bet365, lines Herbert has hit with regularity this season.
If you're a touchdown better, Herbert at +600 (DraftKings) seems too long there too. He has 14 rushing TDs in his career and Dallas has allowed the most rushing TDs of any team with seven, including three in the last six games.
Pick: Second Half Under 24.5 + Justin Herbert Rushing Escalator
Buccaneers vs Panthers: Mike Evans Props
This is a huge game in the NFC South, and the Panthers probably need to sweep these two Bucs games now.
It's another spot with big half splits if you like. Carolina is 5-9 ATS in the first half while the Bucs have a winning record, and that flips to the exact opposite after halftime.
I don't trust either of these teams, so I'm investing in props instead of a side.
Carolina ranks 30th by DVOA against WR1s, and that means it's Mike Evans season. He was back with a vengeance last week, catching six balls for 132 yards on 12 targets.
Evans has been a Carolina killer for years. In his last 10 Panthers games, he averages 7.3 receptions catches for 107 yards on 11.3 targets, and he's scored 11 touchdowns in those games with at least one in 7-of-10 and multiple scores three times.
Since Week 5, the Panthers have allowed eight touchdowns to the top TD threat at WR in 10 games. Touchdowns are Evans' thing, so I love playing him at +185 (Fanatics) to score a TD, and we have to play two scores at +1300 (DraftKings) too.
I like touchdowns better than yards since Evans' snaps are a bit limited but he's always a red zone threat. But I like yards too.
Evans has gone over 55.5 yards (FanDuel) in eight of his last 10 healthy games, so I'll hit that too. And in the last 10 Carolina games, those WR1s that score a touchdown also average 93 yards in those games, while Evans is at 89+ yards in eight of his last 10 against the Panthers, so let's go with 90+ yards at +320 (FanDuel) too.
Pick: Mike Evans Receiving Yards Escalator
Bengals vs Dolphins: All of the Props
Both of these teams are officially eliminated, and Miami has benched Tua Tagovailoa for rookie Quinn Ewers, but I still think we could get an entertaining game.
The total for this one is high and I expect a shootout, unless the Bengals no show again. I actually make Miami favorites here since Cincinnati's offense has fallen off after a midseason surge right as Miami's defense trends up. I don't mind a +185 Dolphins ML play, but I prefer a bunch of props in what could be a fun, higher-scoring game.
Let's start with DeVon Achane, who's become a star for Miami both running and passing. He had 60 yards rushing and caught six balls for 67 yards on Monday night against the Steelers even as Miami struggled, and that's become the norm for him.
That was Achane's eight game with 5+ receptions, and in his last four healthy games, he's put up combined yardage totals of 127, 134, 165, and 225, an average of 163 YPG.
The Bengals defense remains awful and has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing RBs, along with the most receiving points. Achane is the perfect weapon to protect Ewers — just get your star the ball and let him cook.
I like Achane to hit 120+ rushing + receiving yards (-103, DraftKings), and I'll take the escalator.
Achane has 150+ combined yards in three of his last eight healthy games, so play that number at +277. He also has two games at 225+, one in the last month, so let's play 200+ combined yards at +1540 and 230+ at +4300 (all DraftKings) in case he busts a couple long ones.
We always play tight ends against Cincinnati too. Tight ends are a young QB's best friend, so I don't mind this even with Ewers.
The Bengals have been historically bad against tight ends, already allowing 99 catches for 1,276 yards and 15 TDs. Darren Waller has scored six touchdowns in six healthy games for the Dolphins, despite playing less than half the snaps.
Ewers is buying us value, and against Cincinnati, I have to take it. Play a Waller touchdown at +325 (Hard Rock) and sprinkle two or more scores at +2500 (DraftKings).
If Miami does hang around and move the ball, that could set up a script for the Bengals to get into passing mode.
Chase Brown has 6+ receptions in half his last 10 games, with 7+ catches in four of those. Miami allows the sixth-most receptions to RBs on the season and just gave up 10 to the Steelers on Monday night, including seven to Kenneth Gainwell.
Bet Brown to keep racking up catches in a good matchup, especially if Tee Higgins is out again. Split your bet between 6+ catches at +350 and 7+ and +700 (bet365). Brown did hit eight catches this season, so you can sprinkle that number at +1300 too.
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Jaguars vs Broncos First Quarter
We bet Broncos -2.5 on last week's Lookahead and it already hit the key number by Sunday night after Denver beat Green Bay convincingly.
It hasn't gone far, though, because the Jaguars had a blowout win themselves last week and are one of the hottest teams in the league, top three by DVOA over the last six weeks. Liam Coen's once-rejuvenated rushing attack has totally disappeared, but Jacksonville ranks top five in passing attack and in both rushing and passing defense during that stretch by DVOA.
This is where context matters, though. During that stretch, the Jags demolished the terrible Titans and Jets, and they eked by the struggling Cardinals in overtime. The big wins raising all the metrics were comfortable wins against the Chargers and Colts, but both those teams have been besieged by injuries and Jacksonville caught them at just the right time, getting "credit" for wins probably not as good as they look.
Then again, it's not like Denver has pulled away from the crowd.
Denver has 12 wins, but 11 of them have come from behind. The Broncos are 6-8 ATS in the first half but 9-5 ATS after the break, doing their best work late.
The team has been especially lackluster in the first quarter, where the defense ranks below average by DVOA before being elite the rest of the game, and the offense ranks in the bottom five while it leaps to the top 10 after that.
Just look at the scores of the last six first quarters in Denver games (with their score first): 0-3, 7-7, 3-0, 6-3, 0-7, and 0-3. That's a meager 2.7 PPG, and the Broncos led only twice, both times by a field goal.
By contrast, Jacksonville has played its best ball early in games. Liam Coen's scripted plays are working and Trevor Lawrence is playing great ball early. The Jags are 9-5 ATS in the first half, and they rank top five in Offensive DVOA in the first quarter.
I still like Denver in the game, but I like Jacksonville early. I'll play the Jaguars first quarter moneyline at +110 (DraftKings). I far prefer that to Jags +0.5 at -140, no need to pay 50 cents to win a tie instead of pushing it.
That also sets up a familiar script for the Broncos, so bet Denver at +170 to win from behind (DraftKings), which has cashed in all but one Broncos victory. You can also parlay Jaguars 1Q ML with a Broncos win and get a negative correlation boost at +365 (DraftKings).
Pick: Jaguars First Quarter Escalator
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Steelers vs Lions Spread Prediction
This is my favorite spot of the week. I think the Lions smash Pittsburgh.
Typically, we look to bet the Steelers as underdogs, but this is just not a great "Rah Rah" spot for Mike Tomlin. All those Tomlin underdog trends are better when Pittsburgh is a short dog, better playing at home, better in division matchups or after a loss. This is none of those things.
Instead, trends make this a great spot to back Detroit. Jared Goff is 37-15-1 ATS (71%) playing indoors with the Lions, and Detroit has now won 15 straight games coming off a loss since November 2022, going an incredible 14-1 ATS in those games by 11.2 PPG.
Detroit is still an easy top-five team in my power ratings and the Lions effectively control their fate if they win out. Detroit is top five both running and passing the ball, and though the secondary is banged up and leaking, this might be the perfect opponent for the Lions.
Pittsburgh throws more short passes than any team in the league — about three quarters of their passes! — and isn't built to challenge Detroit down the field. The Steelers prefer to play heavy and run the ball, but Detroit wants its linebackers on the field anyway. Detroit's defense ranks top five by DVOA at home this season, while Pittsburgh's defense ranks bottom eight on the road versus top eight at home.
The Lions offense should find plenty to attack in this one. Detroit can run inside, especially with Pittsburgh playing on a short week with plenty of injuries to its defensive front, and the Lions should also own the middle of the field.
The Steelers are exactly who we thought they were — good but not great on defense, with an offense nowhere nearly good enough, same story year after year. In the last calendar year alone, the Steelers have double-digit losses to the Seahawks, Packers, Chargers, and Bills this season and to the Eagles, Chiefs, and Ravens (twice) late last season, seven of those by 14 or more points.
Pittsburgh is not good enough to hang with top teams, and Detroit is still that. All eight Lions wins this season are by at least a touchdown, and six of their eight wins are by 13+ points with an average margin of victory at 22.3 PPG. Detroit also ranks top five in pace since Dan Campbell took over calling plays, which means even more opportunity to be that much better.
Detroit -6.5 (FanDuel) is my favorite play of the week, and we're taking the escalator to the top. Give me Lions -12.5 (+186) and -20.5 (+600) too, both at FanDuel, in case this one reminds us of just how much a gulf there is between the Steelers and a genuinely good opponent.
Pick: Lions -6.5
Patriots vs Ravens
I still think both these teams are a touch overrated in the market.
The Patriots are still technically below average in DVOA at 17th and haven't really moved up as the season has progressed. The Ravens are two spots higher, and though the defense has improved since a terrible start, the offense has faded — especially the bottom-five passing attack over the last six weeks, even with Lamar Jackson back.
Both teams have defended the run better than the pass on the season, though New England's run defense has cratered without Milton Williams. Even so, Baltimore hasn't been as dominant running the ball as expected, and that means this is probably on the quarterbacks — and that's an advantage for Drake Maye right now with Jackson clearly playing hurt.
Jackson is typically great early in games at 63% ATS in the first half for his career, but he's only 4-7 ATS this year. The Ravens offense has ranked bottom 10 in the first half of games but top 10 in the second half. Baltimore is also below average without a lead but top 10 as favorites offensively — the Ravens are front-runners, who can bully bad opponents from ahead but may not get the chance here.
The Patriots are 11-3 ATS in the first half and have been far better early in games, with the No. 2 DVOA offense in the first half. If you like the Patriots, you should like them early — and unlike last week, to maybe finish the job this time around against an opponent not built for comebacks this season.
Mike Vrabel has a winning 22-20 record straight up as an underdog of 3+ points, a 65% ROI for moneyline bettors.
I like getting more bang for our buck in a tough matchup, so let's play Patriots to lead at the half and win the game (usually called Double Result) at most books, getting us a +240 price at Caesars.
If you're a futures bettor, this might just be a spot to bet Drake Maye for MVP after Stafford lost on Thursday night.
I love to invest in long-shot name props, and Rasheen Ali is my guy on Sunday night.
Derrick Henry might finally be cooked. He's played only 82 snaps in the last three games, just 45%. Ravens fans want more Keaton Mitchell but he's playing only 8-to-12 snaps a game, and Justice Hill was getting 15-to-20 but he's on IR.
Enter Marshall sophomore Rasheen Ali, who has the best PFF grade for any RB on this team and has become the third down back for John Harbaugh. Ali has played 29, 27, and 11 snaps the last three games — just five per game less than Henry, and he actually led the team in RB snaps in one of those!
His low snap count came in last week's shutout win, so if the Patriots put the Ravens in passing situations, that should be even better for Ali. New England allows the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs so far this season but the third-most receptions to them, driven by game script. New England has allowed 6+ RB receptions in over half its games (8 of 14), including games with eight, nine, nine, and 11 RB catches.
Because Ali is mostly unknown, we're getting some juicy numbers, and I'm taking the full Rasheen Ali escalator.
Start with 2+ catches at +155 (bet365), a number Ali already hit each of the last two weeks, and then play 3+ receptions at +475 along with 4+ at +1200.
Ali also had a 30-yard catch last week, so let's play 30+ yards at +1000 and touch 40+ at +1650 too (all at bet365).
If New England gets its early lead, we could see a surprising amount of Rasheen Ali, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him catch four or five passes and make a real difference.
Pick: Patriots HT/FT + Rasheen Ali Receving Escalator
Ravens vs Packers Week 17 Lookahead Pick
Thanks to a weird scheduling quirk, there's a real chance this game doesn't matter at all for Baltimore.
If the Lions beat the Steelers as expected and the Ravens beat the Packers Sunday night, then Week 17 becomes entirely meaningless for both AFC North teams before their showdown in Pittsburgh, a de facto playoff game.
Baltimore had its bye week way back in Week 7, and you have to imagine the Ravens could sit many of their stars given the chance here with names like Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Kyle Hamilton, and Ronnie Stanley all banged up.
I'm not exactly looking to invest in the Packers post Micah Parsons injury but still like them above the key number here in Lambeau in a game that will definitely matter for them — either protecting a division lead if they beat the Bears Saturday night, or fighting for the playoffs.
Similar to our Ravens-Patriots read, this comes down to quarterback play and explosives, and right now, that has to be an advantage Jordan Love.
If the Ravens end up trying, we can still win this the hard way, or maybe Baltimore sits guys and this gets to seven or even 10 and it's an easy one for Green Bay. Either way, I'm grabbing Packers -3 while it's there (-105, bet365).
Next week technically wouldn't matter for the Steelers either in that scenario, and they've got an ancient QB and a ton of defensive injuries. The Browns might prefer to lose and help their draft stock, but it's worth parlaying Green Bay -3 with a Browns moneyline just in case we get the right Week 16 results and setup a great value at +407 (bet365).
Pick: Packers -3
Editor’s note: Jordan Love exited the Saturday night game and was checked for concussion. If you haven’t already played this Lookahead line for Green Bay, you would be advised to exercise extreme caution or just wait at this point.
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Brandon's NFL Week 16 Betting Card
- Titans Moneyline (+145)
- Bills 2H -4
- Vikings 2H -1.5 (+105)
- Cowboys-Chargers 2H Under 24.5 + Justin Herbert Rushing Escalator
- Mike Evans Escalator
- Bengals-Dolphins Props for De'Von Achane, Chase Brown, Darren Waller
- Jaguars 1Q Escalator
- Lions -6.5
- Patriots HT/FT + Rasheen Ali Receiving Escalator
NFL Week 17 Lookahead Pick
- Packers -3
