Super Bowl 60 between the Seahawks and Patriots is over a week away, but I have more prop picks to target early.
Continue below to find seven Super Bowl picks — for Sam Darnold, Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry and DeMarcus Lawrence — that I'm showing value on.
Super Bowl Player Props
Which Quarter Will Rhamondre Stevenson Have the Most Rushing Yards? 1st (+290)
I've been monitoring Rhamondre Stevenson's rush attempts per quarter over the season and last week's performance stood out as an outlier. He had nine of his 25 attempts in the fourth quarter — the snowy conditions played a role plus the fact that the Patriots were mainly trying to protect their lead against an ineffective Broncos offense led by Jarrett Stidham.
The fourth quarter in general is going to be game-script driven when it comes to running backs. The Patriots went 14-3 in the regular season and led 62% of the time this season. But for the Super Bowl, they're 4.5-point underdogs and could be facing a rare trailing game script late that doesn't feature much of Stevenson rushing the ball.
I have him projected to see a much higher percent of his rush attempts in the first quarter. I have this prop projected closer to +170 so there's a ton of value here.
This prop is only on DraftKings. You can find it under "Rushing Props" in the subsection labeled "Rush Yards — Q With Most."
Hunter Henry Under 4.5 1st Quarter Receiving Yards (-112)
Like Stevenson, I did a deep dive on Hunter Henry's quarter-to-quarter usage and it shocked me to discover he's non-existent in the first quarter.
Henry has gotten off to a ton of slow starts where he's only seen a target on 11% of his first-quarter routes; he only has five catches in the first quarter in 20 games.
Obviously, you could probably chalk a ton of that up to noise, but there's probably some signal that he's just not as involved in the Patriots' initial scripted plays as much. That could change for the Super Bowl if they want to mix it up.
I have him right around 59% to not even catch a pass in the first quarter. If he does, there's only a 1% chance he stays under 4.5 yards just because he tends to get a lot of downfield looks.
Hunter Henry Over 8.5 2nd Quarter Receiving Yards (-110)
On the flip side, I'm taking Henry to go over 8.5 yards in the second quarter.
That's the quarter where he sees a ton of usage; he led the team with a 20% target rate in the second quarter and he was actually the first read 21% of the time, which is quite high. The Patriots tend to scheme plays up for him in this quarter as he's involved in the two-minute offense.
I have his most likely outcome as one catch in the second quarter. He could get two or more receptions and easily clear this, but even if he gets one catch, he tends to make them count. His median catch this year was 12 yards and 70% of his catches went for at least nine yards.
DeMarcus Lawrence 1+ Sacks (+140)
This is a great matchup for the Seahawks when it comes to the sack market.
Drake Maye faced the sixth-highest pressure rate of the season. That's typically an offensive line stat, but he was also sacked on 24% of his pressures, which is the seventh-highest rate, which is more of a QB stat.
DeMarcus Lawrence led the Seahawks in sacks in the regular season and he has two sacks so far in the playoffs with a team-leading seven pressures. He's who I want to take here because he should be much closer to his ceiling in terms of playing time. I'm expecting him out there for 70-75% of the snaps.
I'm expecting Maye to drop back a ton in this game so I think Lawrence is gonna have a ton of chances to get him.
Leonard Williams Over 3.5 Tackles + Assists (+125)
This is a number Williams cleared 65% of the time in the regular season; he has stayed under in each playoff game so far which means it's a good time to buy low.
Williams tends to mix in on more inside runs so his run-tackle rate correlates with how often teams run inside. The Patriots rank 12th, which is above the NFL average. In addition, Stevenson runs inside at the fourth-highest rate.
The Patriots have provided the third-most run-tackle opportunities to interior linemen; they run inside often and also get stuffed at a top-7 rate.
I have him mixing in on 3.2 run plays and also have him around a coin flip to get a sack (current favorite to lead game in sacks).
Williams mixes in on pass plays at a very high rate for an interior lineman — he actually leads the position with 16 tackles in the pass game (next-closest player only has 10).
I'm projecting him closer to 4.1 tackles with a 56% chance he clears 3.5.
AJ Barner Longest Reception Under 13.5 (-118)
Barner’s a bit tricky to project because we aren’t sure if Elijah Arroyo will return, but either way, this is a market where I want to fade him.
Barner's aDot has fallen off quite a bit in the second half of the season. From Weeks 1-9 it was 8.6; from Week 10-forward it’s down to 4.6 (this also coincides with the addition of Rashid Shaheed).
Barner has only seen two targets 20+ yards downfield and he’s caught both; NextGenStats gave him an expected catch rate closer to 60% on those two catches so he's due for regression on rare downfield throws.
The Patriots use man coverage at a top-10 rate — notable because Barner's target rate, aDot and yards per catch are a slightly lower against man.
I'm projecting him closer to 11.5 with a 60% chance to stay under 13.5.
Sam Darnold 3rd Quarter Rush Yds Under 0.5 (-275)
If you've been watching our shows this week, you know I've been teasing this one — and now it's time to lock it in.
Darnold only has one rush attempt in the 3rd quarter on the season — that was an aborted snap for no yards. He tends to do all of his scrambling in the second and fourth quarter. In the second quarter, he has 11 positive run plays in 19 games.
The aforementioned Barner also steals rushes via QB sneak and tush push.
I have Darnold projected closer to +130 to go over 0.5 rush yds in in the second quarter (+174).
Note: If lines/odds move by the time you read this story, make sure to follow Sean in the Action Network app to get alerts when he places a bet. These writeups, however, still offer invaluable insight into his process.
