The NFL season rolls into Week 5, starting with the hobbled 49ers taking on the Rams in an NFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football.
That's where I begin my NFL Week 5 picks, followed by bets, leans and passes for the rest of the weekend slate, including the NFL London Game, Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
Every week, I break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL odds move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
NFL Week 5 Previews & Picks
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| NFL London Game |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 5 Picks |
| Sunday Night Football |
| Monday Night Football |
Thursday Night Football
49ers vs Rams
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +290 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -370 |
I have been down on the Niners all season really, and things just keep getting worse.
We all know the big injuries here: Nick Bosa is out for the season, George Kittle is on injured reserve and Brock Purdy has missed time with a toe injury. Purdy returned last week only to experience enough pain that he's out again for Week 5 — but there's so much more to be worried about.
Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings were hurt on Sunday and both have been ruled out as well. If Jordan Watkins doesn't play, San Francisco will be without a whopping six wideouts in addition to Kittle.
I don't think the luck machine can keep on chugging here now that the schedule is getting tougher, and the Rams have featured one of the best offenses in football despite some very shaky pass blocking in front of Matthew Stafford.
San Francisco's defense has been bad against the run and its pass rush is nothing like it was with Bosa, leading me to believe there's really no way into this one for the 49ers.
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NFL London Game
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 36 -110o / -110u | -205 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 36 -110o / -110u | +170 |
The Browns are the same as they ever were, playing some admirable defense in the face of some serious deficits brought on by the offense. The pass rush has been great, and teams have struggled to run the ball on them, but Joe Flacco, who's been benched in favor of Dillon Gabriel, and this depleted Browns backfield have done very little.
That makes this one interesting because the Vikings' line has already looked pedestrian in pass protection and is now missing two starters on the offensive line with Ryan Kelly and Brian O'Neill picking up injuries last week.
Minnesota's best chance is running the ball with JJ McCarthy still sidelined, and while Carson Wentz did more or less survive in the face of pressure last week to torch the Steelers in a loss, he was still picked twice and sacked six times on an overall middling day.
The Browns' secondary actually grades out far better than the Steelers', according to Pro Football Focus, and their defense should keep Minnesota down enough to keep scoring to a minimum.
This line is deathly scary, however, so I'm probably saving my money for later games.
Passes
Buccaneers vs Seahawks
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
I'm just excited to watch this game.
Both offenses can move the ball in a number of ways, but both defenses have been solid against the run. It'll come down to whether Tampa Bay's backfield can snatch this game away from a solid front seven, or if Sam Darnold can continue to torch opposing secondaries to swing the game Seattle's way.
The Buccaneers have been excellent against the deep ball despite lackluster coverage grades, allowing just 2-of-12 completions on 20+ yard attempts, and with a solid run defense I think one of my favorite offenses — and quarterbacks — may have a tough day at the office.
The Seahawks' pass rush also promises to be a tall task for a Tampa Bay line that's fallen short of expectations, so there's a world where this one is low-scoring.
I'm between the Seahawks and the Under, but both numbers look quite fair. I'll pass on this one.
Verdict: Pass
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Giants vs Saints
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | -130 |
I don't really know what the hell this line means.
Yeah, Malik Nabers is good, but is he good enough to swing this line two points? I don't think so, and I certainly don't think the Saints have anything to offer offensively. They've scored 16.5 points per game, and because of their lackluster defense, they've been forced to throw with Spencer Rattler far more than they'd like.
Cameron Skattebo is practicing, as is Jaxson Dart, and while there's not enough of a sample to fall head-over-heels in love with the Giants' offense, you'd have to think they still deserve to be favored. The Giants can win this game without using Dart all that much, but this is also a letdown spot for the rookie after a solid debut.
I don't know what Vegas is cooking here with this line — I'll pass.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
Dolphins vs Panthers
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
I do not believe the Dolphins truly deserved a win on Monday after a pathetic display by the officiating crew, and you can say that again given the Jets simply handed the ball over all game long.
In Miami, I've seen an improving offense that's been victimized by a tough schedule and a poor run defense, but it's also not like this line has given Tua Tagovailoa and the backfield any help. Now the Dolphins are without Tyreek Hill — this should be a friendly matchup, but I think there will be trouble.
If you held steady last week and fought the urge to overreact to Carolina's Week 3 win, you won big, and I would continue to maintain this is a lifeless team on both sides of the ball.
The line is fishy, Miami's down a big playmaker, and with that, I'm likely out.
Verdict: Lean -1.5
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Lions vs Bengals
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -525 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +390 |
I really can't believe we're going to be subjected to watching Jake Browning in the 4 p.m. window this week. My goodness, does this Bengals team stink.
I suppose the lone bright spot on offense is Trey Hendrickson, who's once again gotten to the quarterback this season, but that doesn't really matter when you're facing arguably the best offensive line in football.
CB D.J. Reed is going to miss this game for Detroit, but how does Browning even get the ball out to his receivers given his lack of talent and his porous line, which will be worn down by Aidan Hutchinson?
There's just no way Cincinnati sniffs a win. It put up three points on a slightly worse defense and allowed Bo Nix to look like a world-beater.
Maybe the Lions play down to the competition and lack any sort of energy, especially on the road, but I don't know.
Verdict: Lean Lions -10.5
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Commanders vs Chargers
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 48 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 48 -110o / -110u | -155 |
Week 5 will mark the return of Jayden Daniels, who wasn't really as missed by the Commanders as you would have thought. Marcus Mariota filled in well last week in what was a solid showing against the Falcons, and the run game lifted the Commanders to a 27-point showing as the defense ultimately failed to contain Michael Penix Jr.
Now they have Justin Herbert on the schedule, and we all know he loves to throw the deep ball. He's completed just 31.6% of his passing attempts of 20+ yards this season, but the Commanders have allowed a rather handsome 6-of-15 passing on these throws.
The Commanders secondary is a major concern with two safeties in danger of missing this game, and that's after losing two edge rushers to IR.
I'm not going to be overlooking this Chargers offense, but I do think Washington has a way in against the 16th-ranked run defense by DVOA.
I'm not sure that's enough to believe fully in the Over — the Commanders could chew too much clock — but I expect an inspired performance with Daniels back under center and surrounded by an offense that did well in his absence.
Verdict: Lean Over 48
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NFL Week 5 Picks
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 48 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 48 -110o / -110u | -320 |
It's been a sad slide for my Raiders, who fell to the Bears by one point last week on a missed field goal from 54 yards.
It was supposed to be a breakout game for this scrappy young team, which ran for a whopping 240 yards on 31 carries and rendered Chicago's offense ineffective, but Geno Smith's three interceptions and the missed kick ultimately did it in.
I'm not shying away, however, even with the mighty Colts on the schedule.
Yes, the matchup with the Rams was hard, but in a larger sense it was the first true test they've had after ripping through a few teams that have started in disappointing fashion.
Indy ranks just 17th in DVOA against the run, but it does have the eighth-highest interception rate and seventh-best takeaway rate in the league.
Smith is certainly in trouble, but after what we saw from Ashton Jeanty — and Raheem Mostert, who looked good behind him — I'm a big enough believer in the offense.
Vegas has stopped the run, and while it's 12th-worst in DVOA versus the pass, it's at least held opponents to 6-of-15 passing on deep balls (20+ yards downfield). The Raiders can do enough to neutralize the Colts' offense to draw close.
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Cowboys vs Jets
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
The Jets were in a tough spot on Monday Night Football for a myriad of reasons.
Sure, simply being the Jets is a reason — and they did nothing to help themselves in the first half of that game. They also had a very tough assignment against a Dolphins team trending upwards on offense and had played far better than their 0-3 record.
It didn't seem like that game was very winnable entering the night, but it sure did look like a game New York should have won if not for a putrid display by the officiating crew in the second half. They took away what a touchdown that ultimately would have helped tie the game late, and they stalled two very encouraging Jets drives.
Justin Fields threw the ball quite well when he was forced to in the fourth quarter, and the rushing attack was once again solid. Even though it was a friendly matchup, the Jets have been running the ball well for weeks — now they'll draw the 11th-worst run defense by DVOA in Week 5.
The Cowboys have been an undervalued team that has excelled offensively, but the defense has lacked gumption. Ignore the noise, believe in the Jets' offense, and fire up the Over.
Verdict: Bet Over 47.5 (-110)
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Broncos vs Eagles
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
I really don't like either of these teams.
The Broncos' line has been excellent, and while their defense hasn't been the best in the league, it's still ranked top 10 in total DVOA. They've had to face the Colts and Chargers, but they've also drawn the Titans and Bengals, so I don't think this is an unfair assessment.
The big factor here is the Broncos' run defense. It's ranked ninth, according to PFF, and even though it allowed Jonathan Taylor to run for 6.6 yards per carry in Week 2, it was more or less an outlier given he had a 68-yard tote.
Philly's line continues to be a mystery; it has graded out poorly in run blocking and now have to hope Lane Johnson is healthy enough to play following his injury in Week 4.
I think this is the Eagles' day of reckoning. Even though I don't love betting on Bo Nix, I think you have to continue to short Philly until this team proves something to us.
Verdict: Bet Broncos +3.5
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Texans vs Ravens
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 40 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 40 -110o / -110u | +100 |
Let's not just turn off the television and rejoin the Ravens' season when Lamar Jackson returns. There's always been so much to like about this team beyond its MVP quarterback, but through four weeks it's been hard to see.
Baltimore's had to deal with three titanic offenses in the Bills, Lions and Chiefs, so I'm not ready to read too far into the lowly defensive rankings.
What we have seen, however, is some excellent play out of this receiving corps and last week the run game was on fire against Kansas City.
It's looking unlikely that Jackson will play — and his injury could keep him out multiple weeks — but as of now we haven't got a clue.
That's theoretically going to make it tough to bet on either side here, but I'd stress that the offense can survive without him. It's put up points galore against respected teams, and it's not like the Texans' defense has looked remotely as good as it was supposed to.
The line here does have the Jackson injury baked in, so I'm going to go ahead and grab the number. It's been a long time since C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense have looked dominant.
Verdict: Bet Ravens +1.5
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Titans vs Cardinals
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | -425 |
The Titans might not be as bad as they look, at least on defense. They're fresh off a solid showing against the Texans, where they held Nick Chubb to 3.6 yards per carry and limited Houston to 129 yards on 35 carries. While C.J. Stroud was efficient, it's not as if he was breaking off any big throws.
That's probably an indicator of how middling the Texans are offensively, but it's worth noting that Tennessee has graded out around the middle of the league against the run, according to PFF, despite a poor DVOA.
The Cardinals are throwing a bunch but averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt, and despite a solid 4.5 yards per carry they've run at the eighth-lowest clip in the league.
Now that Trey Benson is out — joining James Conner on the sideline — there's a clear way in for the Titans here defensively. The run defense should continue looking capable, and that's enough to pull this game under the total.
Do we really think Cam Ward will cost us?
Verdict: Bet Under 41.5
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Sunday Night Football
Patriots vs Bills
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -450 |
I love talking about the deep ball, so let's discuss one more matchup.
The Patriots have been one of the most vulnerable teams to deep shots through four weeks, and while Josh Allen hasn't aired it out all that much, he's been an efficient 6-of-13 on deep balls this season.
New England's secondary is in a bit of disarray, but the run defense looks like it could be legit with an eighth-place ranking in DVOA to this point. We know the Bills are going to run the ball — and they've done that quite well with the most rushing yards and touchdowns per game to this point — but they've also played a very weak schedule in this specific aspect of the game, and on their own end haven't been able to stop the run at all.
The Patriots might not be the flashiest team, but they're capable of hanging around with the Bills. This will be a battle of both front sevens, and in a game like that, they're much closer to the top half of the league than in any other scenario.
I expect some good, hard-nosed AFC East football and a surprisingly watchable game.
Verdict: Bet Patriots +8.5
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Monday Night Football
Chiefs vs Jaguars
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
This is kind of a joke to me.
No, the Chiefs offense hasn't been dominant according to any of the metrics, but we're still gathering a sample. They haven't been turning the ball over much, they've run the ball decently well (according to DVOA) with a respectable 4.3 yards per carry, and they still have Patrick Mahomes under center, who has graded out more or less fine through four weeks.
Am I head over heels for this offense? No, I'm not, but this vaunted Jaguars defense has simply not been tested yet. They lost to Joe Burrow, and beat the Panthers, Texans and 49ers.
I mean, maybe the latter two would have sounded impressive last October, but now? Not so much. They have come up against one decent rushing offense in San Francisco, which was easy to stop given its passing game has been decimated by injuries — now the Jags have to stop the big boys.
I don't see it, and I sure don't see Trevor Lawrence and his 5.9 yards per attempt winning this game by himself, either.
Sure, the Chiefs' run defense hasn't looked good, but they've run through a gauntlet of talented rushing offenses from the Eagles and Ravens to the Giants.
I still believe this is a supremely talented Chiefs team (especially when compared to the Jaguars), and last year you would have dreamed of getting a line this short.
Maybe they're not the Chiefs of old, but they still look like a damn-near complete team.
Verdict: Bet Chiefs -3.5
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