
Derek Carty

403
Total Bets
253.6K
Followers
Derek Carty
Last 30d: 26-26-3 (+16.62u)
Derek Carty's Picks
Today
P.Tolle u16.5 Outs+110
BOS
NYM
1u
07/12 5:40 PM
THE BAT X is forecasting 14.64 pitching outs for Payton Tolle compared to 16.66 pitching outs implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value here. If you take the under, you'd be projected to win 67% of the time, resulting in a 41% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $40.81. This play is good down to at least -156.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz
29
6
P.Tolle u1.5 BB+110
BOS
NYM
1u
07/12 5:40 PM
There is a value opportunity on Payton Tolle's walks allowed prop. THE BAT X is projecting him to record 1.23 walks allowed, while oddsmakers are implying 1.71. The model believes there is a 65% chance he records fewer than 2 walks allowed, so there is value on the under at +110. This play is good down to at least -146.
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26
6
F.Lindor o0.5 HR+575
BOS
NYM
0.25u
07/12 5:40 PM
THE BAT X is forecasting 0.23 home runs for Francisco Lindor. Oddsmakers are implying 0.17 home runs, so I believe there is value here. If you take the over, you'd be projected to win 20% of the time resulting in a 34% ROI with expected value of $33.99 (based on a $100 wager). This play is good down to at least +454.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz
16
7
J.Soto o0.5 HR+430
BOS
NYM
0.25u
07/12 5:40 PM
There may be some value on Juan Soto's home runs prop. THE BAT X is projecting him to record 0.29 home runs, and oddsmakers are implying 0.21. The model believes there is a 24% chance he records at least 1 home run, so there is value on the over at +430. This play is good down to at least +353.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz
25
5
T.Bradley u17.5 Outs+155
LAA
MIN
1u
07/12 6:10 PM
There is a value opportunity on Taj Bradley's pitching outs prop. THE BAT X is projecting him to record 16.41 pitching outs, while oddsmakers are implying 18.25. The model believes there is a 56% chance he records fewer than 18 pitching outs, so there is value on the under at +155. This play is good down to at least -104.
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33
6
J.Adell o0.5 HR+579
LAA
MIN
0.25u
07/12 6:10 PM
There is a value opportunity on Jo Adell's home runs prop. THE BAT X is projecting 0.23 home runs for him with a 20% chance that he records at least 1 home run. If you can get the over at +579 or better, there is great value here. This play is good down to at least +454.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz
20
6
E.Alfonzo u1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-135
ARI
LAD
1.35u
07/12 8:10 PM
There is a value opportunity on Eliezer Alfonzo's hits runs and rbis prop. THE BAT X is projecting him to record 1.14 hits runs and rbis, while oddsmakers are implying 1.68. The model believes there is a 71% chance he records fewer than 2 hits runs and rbis, so there is value on the under at -135. This play is good down to at least -181.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz
26
5
Pending
Futures
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2-0-0 | 100% | 2.55u |
| Last 7 Days | 7-5-0 | 58% | 5.95u |
| Last 30 Days | 26-26-3 | 47% | 16.62u |
| All Time | 157-226-20 | 39% | 41.89u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 110-175-19 | 36% | 36.38u |
| NFL | 47-49-1 | 48% | 7.51u |
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