The New York Liberty (7-4) and Connecticut Sun (2-10) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. The game will be broadcast live on FOX5 New York.
The Liberty are favored by -12.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 162.5 (-110o / -110u). The Liberty are a -900 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +570 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Liberty vs. Sun predictions and WNBA picks.
Liberty vs. Sun Odds, Pick
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -112 | 162.5 -110o / -110u | -900 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -108 | 162.5 -110o / -110u | +570 |
- Liberty vs. Sun Spread: Liberty -12.5 (-112), Sun +12.5 (-108)
- Liberty vs. Sun Over/Under: 162.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Liberty vs. Sun Moneyline: Liberty -900, Sun +570
- Liberty vs. Sun Best Bet: Sun +12.5 (-108)
Liberty vs. Sun Preview
The upcoming matchup highlights a fascinating clash between two Eastern Conference teams trending in completely opposite directions.
The New York Liberty travel to face the Connecticut Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena with all the momentum on their side. New York has successfully shaken off an early-season rough patch to string together a four-game winning streak, picking up recent victories against the Phoenix Mercury, Toronto Tempo, and Indiana Fever.
Breanna Stewart remains the engine of this elite squad, fresh off a dominant 30-point, 8-rebound performance against Indiana.
Alongside her, the Liberty feature a well-balanced rotation anchored by Jonquel Jones and Julie Vanloo, driving a top-five defensive rating of 102.3 and maintaining a stellar 52.4% effective field goal percentage in their wins.
New York boasts a strong statistical profile, scoring 87.2 points per game while surrendering just 82.4, and they completely dominate the boards with 35.5 rebounds per contest.
Historical trends also heavily favor the visitors, as New York has captured victories in four straight games against Connecticut, five of the last six overall, and an impressive nine of their last ten trips to Mohegan Sun Arena.
To complicate matters, the Liberty will navigate this matchup without guard Sabrina Ionescu, who remains out due to back soreness.
In stark contrast, the Sun are searching for answers amid a brutal stretch that has seen them drop five of their last six outings, pushing their overall season record to a disappointing 2-10.
Connecticut returns home following back-to-back road losses to the Atlanta Dream and the Chicago Sky.
The Sun have managed just a single victory in four home games this year and rank near the bottom of the WNBA in scoring efficiency, averaging only 75.9 points per game.
The injury report introduces massive hurdles for the home team as well. Center Brittney Griner is officially ruled out with a left rib strain, severely limiting their interior presence, while Kennedy Burke is considered questionable due to an illness.
Liberty vs. Sun Prediction
Despite the obvious talent gap and opposing trajectories, taking the Connecticut Sun at +12.5 provides significant betting value due to a proven analytical betting system developed by Action Network's Evan Abrams.
This strategy, known as "Bet Bad Teams Off Loss as Big Dogs," capitalizes on heavy public overreaction in the betting market. The public routinely piles onto fading, struggling teams when they face a powerhouse opponent, creating artificially wide spreads that give too many points to the underdog.
The strategy identifies prime value when a struggling team is a large double-digit underdog but is coming off a relatively modest, competitive loss rather than a total blowout.
Connecticut perfectly fits this mold after fighting hard in a close five-point defeat to Chicago. When the market overcorrects to a team's poor overall record, the spread widens past its true analytical projection.
Historically, underdogs in this exact scenario show immense pride and play with an increased intensity to prove themselves, allowing them to fight much harder than the public anticipates.
Backing the Sun keeps the final score safely within the generous 12.5-point margin, making Connecticut the smart play to cover the spread at home.
Best Bet: Sun +12.5 (-108)
